Under Thad Matta, Ohio State has never finished below .500 in Big Ten play.
One more loss and that is no longer true.
After falling to Michigan State on Tuesday night, the Buckeyes currently sit at 5-9 in the conference. There are four games remaining in the regular-season; another loss would give Matta the first losing league record in his head coaching career.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska (11-14, 5-8 B1G) | Value City Arena | 6 p.m. | BTN |
The first step in avoiding that comes Saturday when Ohio State hosts Nebraska at Value City Arena.
"We kind of just have our backs against the wall right now and that’s kind of just how we’re thinking right now," point guard C.J. Jackson said Friday. "At this point, we need every game that we can get so we’re just kind of leaving it out there on the floor.”
This is the second meeting of the season between these two teams. They met back on Jan. 18 in Lincoln and the Buckeyes came away with a 67-66 victory on a Marc Loving layup with less than one second remaining. It was a competitive game and the hope, of course, is the rematch brings the same type of finish.
Let's break down Saturday's matchup between Ohio State and Nebraska a little further.
Opponent Breakdown
After a 3-0 start in the Big Ten, it's been tough sledding for Nebraska over the last six weeks. The Huskers are just 2-8 in their last 10 games.
Nebraska does have wins on the year over Maryland and Purdue so this is certainly a capable team and the Huskers additionally snapped their three-game losing streak on Tuesday with an 82-66 rout of Penn State.
"I think we’ve both had some moments where we’ve played some really, really, really good basketball," Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta said. "I keep saying for us, seizing the opportunities, hitting our stride, those types of things are what we’re after. [Nebraska] goes into Maryland and go on a 15-0 run to win the game, go to Indiana and knock them off. They’ve had some great moments in terms of playing big-time basketball.”
Nebraska jumped all over Ohio State in the first meeting between these two teams, leading by as many as 12 in the first half. The Huskers had an eight-point lead at halftime before the Buckeyes clawed back and won in the final second.
Senior guard Tai Webster led the way for Nebraska, as usual, with a game-high 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting. Michael Jacobson (11 points), Evan Taylor (11) and Glynn Watson, Jr. (10) also reached double-figures for the Huskers in the first go-round.
According to Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings, Nebraska ranks 125th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (107.1 points per 100 possessions) and 65th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.7 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Huskers are middle-of-the-road in those same categories during Big Ten games as they rank sixth in the league in offensive efficiency (104.5 points per 100 possessions) and ninth in defensive efficiency (107.0 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Nebraska averages 71.3 points per game on the season and 73.1 per game in Big Ten play. The Huskers allow 72.2 points per game on the year and 76.0 per league contest.
Buckeye Breakdown
Back-to-back road games at Maryland and Michigan State is a rather daunting task for any team, and even though Ohio State battled in both, the result was a pair of losses. For a team that desperately needed a quality road win, it all but assured the Buckeyes now need to win the Big Ten tournament to have any hope of making the NCAA tournament.
"At times this season, we haven’t competed the way we should have and we’re just trying to do that as the season winds down and comes to an end," Jackson said. "Just compete more, compete for 40 minutes and the past couple games we’ve gone against some good teams in tough environments and we just ended up a few plays short of winning.”
In Ohio State's 74-66 loss in East Lansing on Tuesday, Loving led the way with 22 points and Lyle scored 10, but no other player reached double figures as the Buckeyes were hampered with foul trouble throughout the majority of the evening.
Loving is averaging 16.7 points per game and shooting 48.7 percent from 3-point range over Ohio State's last seven games and the Buckeyes are going to need him the rest of the way if they're to make a run.
Loving scored the game-winner in Ohio State's win over Nebraska earlier this year and led the Buckeyes in scoring on that night, too, with a team-high 15 points. JaQuan Lyle (13), Jae'Sean Tate (13) and Trevor Thompson (10) joined him in double-figures as Ohio State outscored Nebraska by nine points in the second half and limited the Huskers to just 26 points in the final 20 minutes.
"We have to go out and play," Matta said. "We’re preparing and will be prepared for Nebraska [on Saturday] night, but a lot of it is on us and just trying to sure up things we need to sure up in terms of us going out and giving ourselves the best chance to win.”
How It Plays Out
Aside from attempting to finish .500 in conference play, Ohio State is also hoping to avoid playing on the opening day of the Big Ten tournament. Nebraska is trying to do exactly the same.
The Buckeyes have a talent advantage and they're playing at home, so Ohio State is the favorite to win. KenPom gives the Buckeyes a 70 percent chance at a victory and projects a five-point win for the home team.
When Ohio State has struggled this season, it's been at the defensive end of the floor. The Buckeyes haven't lost when giving up 72 points or fewer, but they haven't won when allowing more than that number.
As most of Ohio State's games have been this year, expect this one to be close throughout. The Buckeyes, though, find a way to get it done with a strong second-half performance.
Perhaps this time they won't even need a buzzer beater.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 76, Nebraska 68
