Ohio State's regular-season comes to an end Saturday afternoon.
It's been an up-and-down year for the Buckeyes, who enter the regular-season finale with just a 17-13 overall record and a 7-10 mark in the Big Ten. Ohio State hosts Indiana at Value City Arena at noon.
If the Buckeyes knock off the Hoosiers, however, they'll accomplish something they haven't yet this season: three consecutive Big Ten wins. It's an opportunity for Ohio State to play its best basketball heading into the conference tournament.
| WHO | Where | When | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana (16-14, 6-11 B1G) | Value City Arena | Noon | ESPN |
"We have some momentum trending since we’ve won the last couple games so finishing out this Big Ten season strong is essential for seeding and stuff in the Big Ten tournament," senior forward Marc Loving said. "Regardless of the things that can come with this win, we just want to come out and play hard and we feel like we have a good opportunity.”
Another thing a win over Indiana gives the Buckeyes is an extra day of rest. If Ohio State is victorious Saturday, it will avoid playing on the opening day of the Big Ten tournament. For a team that needs to make a deep run in Washington D.C., that extra day off could be critical.
If the Buckeyes can't find a way to knock off the Hoosiers, however, they will be playing Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament as one of the league's bottom four seeds.
Let's break down Saturday's matchup between Ohio State and Indiana a little more in-depth.
Opponent Breakdown
This hasn't quite been the season Indiana envisioned.
The Big Ten regular season champions a year ago who returned a large core of that team, the Hoosiers enter Saturday's game just 16-14 overall and 6-11 in the Big Ten. It's been an injury-riddled season for Tom Crean's team for sure, but one which has ultimately been a big disappointment — especially after Indiana defeated both Kansas and North Carolina in the nonconference.
“I think they’re a little bit like us just in terms of they’ve shown they have the ability to play at a very, very high level," Ohio State head coach Thad Matta said. "As we did with Keita, they’ve battled injuries and people don’t understand how hard that is to keep a group together. I think Tom has done a tremendous job of trying to piece together the pieces of the puzzle in this league.
"That’s the other thing I don’t think people fully appreciate. They say you’re Ohio State or you’re Indiana and you’re supposed to win, but it’s hard. A lot of times when you’re disheveled it can make it really challenging."
James Blackmon Jr. leads the way for the Hoosiers in terms of scoring. The talented junior guard averages 16.8 points per game and shoots 41.6 percent from behind the 3-point line. Sophomore big man Thomas Bryant (12.8 ppg.) and junior guard Robert Johnson (12.8 ppg.) also average double figures for Indiana. Bryant additionally averages a team-high 7.0 rebounds per game.
Under Crean, Indiana usually excels a bit more at the offensive end of the floor and this year is no different. According to Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings, the Hoosiers rank 31st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (115.5 points per 100 possessions) but just 100th in adjusted defensive efficiency (101.3 points allowed per 100 possessions). Indiana ranks fourth in Big Ten play in offensive efficiency (106.7 points per 100 possessions) but is dead last in defensive efficiency (110.4 points per 100 possessions).
Indiana averages 79.9 points per game on the season and allows 72.7. In Big Ten play, however, the Hoosiers score just 74.6 points per game and allow 77.2.
"They’re a tough matchup in terms of what they do and what they’re capable of doing," Matta said. "Our defense has got to be at an all-time high tomorrow or we’re in trouble.”
Buckeye Breakdown
It certainly didn't come easy, but Ohio State found a way to win its final road game in Big Ten play Tuesday night when Jae'Sean Tate's layup with three seconds to go gave the Buckeyes a 71-70 win at Penn State.
It was a victory that bumped the Buckeyes to 17-13 on the season and 7-10 in Big Ten play. As mentioned above, a win over the Hoosiers on Saturday and Ohio State avoids having to play Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament.
The Buckeyes feel like they're in a good place after that win over the Nittany Lions.
"I hope we can keep riding the wave and play more consistent basketball," Matta said. "We didn’t play perfect at all the other night against Penn State. It was somewhat of a brutal film session in there just trying to get our guys to understand some things are unacceptable. But we did do some good things too and we showed those.”
Saturday is Senior Day for the Buckeyes' lone senior: Loving. It's been an up-and-down career for the Toledo native and this season has been rather up-and-down for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are hoping to send Loving off right and finish their regular-season on a high note.
“You look tomorrow at 2 o’clock and we’ve completed our regular-season," Matta said. "I think at that point, as a staff, as a team, we take a deep breath and say, ‘OK, what’s next? When are we playing? Who are we playing? What do we have to do to get ready?’ For our guys to think about next week and all that stuff, we’re not real good at doing that.”
How It Plays Out
At the beginning of the season, many looked at this end-of-the-year matchup between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers as a potentially major factor in determining Big Ten and NCAA tournament seeding.
It hasn't really worked out that way. Ohio State and Indiana meet Saturday just trying to avoid having to play on the first day of the Big Ten tournament.
This should be a competitive game, however, between a pair of underachieving teams. KenPom gives the Buckeyes a 57 percent chance at victory and projects a two-point win for the home team on Senior Day.
Most of Ohio State's games in Big Ten play this year came down to the wire. We don't expect this one to be any different.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 76, Indiana 73
