When Ohio State defeated Iowa, its NCAA tournament chances seemed fairly secure. Despite a 6-10 record in the calendar year of 2019, the Buckeyes had taken advantage of a weak bubble and put themselves in position to have a strong at-large bid.
| Who | Where | When | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern (12-17, 3-15) | Evanston, Illinois (Welsh-Ryan Arena) | 9 p.m. | BTN |
Kaleb Wesson's suspension changed the situation a bit, though. Ohio State likely needed at least one more win to maintain a safe hold on its tournament berth, and it's still searching for that victory after Purdue rocked the Wesson-less team by 35 points.
The Buckeyes take on Northwestern at 9 p.m. Wednesday in their second-to-last regular-season game. Had Wesson not still been suspended, they have have entered the day as favorites, but the betting odds are even as of the morning of the game.
Ohio State defeated the Wildcats, 63-49, in February with a solid team effort, yet one led offensively by Wesson's 22 points. No other Buckeye scored more than eight points. In order for Ohio State to win, it'll have to play a notably different game on both ends of the court than it did in the victory earlier this month.
"Obviously, we have been working and a Northwestern team we just faced," Chris Holtmann said. "I have a tremendous lot of respect for the job that Chris (Collins) does. They’ve just got some really difficult people to guard, in particular with (Dererk) Pardon and Vic Law. Plus, (Ryan) Taylor and the other guys have helped them."
Opponent Preview
Northwestern doesn't jump off on paper, especially offensively.
Ohio State held the Wildcats to 31.6 percent shooting from the field and 5-for-29 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren't abnormal for scoring-challenged Northwestern, which has a 12-17 record and is 3-15 in the Big Ten. The Wildcats have lost 10 games in a row and have cracked 65 points in just two of the defeats.
Every single Northwestern player except for one – Pardon – shoots below 40 percent from the field.
Without Wesson, Pardon could find more opportunities to hurt the Buckeyes inside. He had just eight points (4-for-9) and nine rebounds in the first meeting between the two teams. Holtmann has referenced Wesson as a significantly better defender than his backup – Jaedon LeDee – so there's a chance his impact could be felt more on that side of the court than on offense.
Ohio State Preview
In order to beat Northwestern, Ohio State doesn't have to drop 90 points, which it did against Iowa. It just has to not have a Purdue-like offensive performance combined with a historically bad defensive performance.
"We did not bring enough competitive fight to that game and effort in general," Holtmann said. "We have to take responsibility for that. It has been very rare that I’ve said that about this group or last year’s group. It’s been very rare, but that was the case."
Not having Wesson makes winning significantly harder on both ends of the court.
Without him on offense, Justin Ahrens and Duane Washington Jr. had hands in their faces before they ever touched the ball versus the Boilermakers, partially leading to the 51-point output. Those two sharpshooters combined to miss all four 3-point attempts, and the team made just 2-of-19 triples.
The Wesson-less offense needs more contributions out of a host of players. C.J. Jackson had two points and one assist in 29 minutes, and he has to pick up some of the scoring slack. Either Ahrens and Washington needs to hit a couple 3s to keep the Wildcats at bay. Ohio State would receive a significant boost if Luther Muhammad got out of his seven-game shooting slump.
How It Plays Out
Northwestern has lost 10 games, not having won since Jan. 22. But don't consider this a guaranteed victory for the Buckeyes, because it's not.
Ohio State didn't prove it can score against Purdue with an opponent game-planning to face the Buckeyes without Wesson. Though the Wildcats haven't been overly successful this season, especially recently, they have a solid defense and buckets won't come easily.
Prediction: Ohio State 63, Northwestern 62
