Chris Holtmann left Butler to take the head coach job at Ohio State for opportunities like the one in front of him. Justice Sueing moved away from the West Coast for this type of moment. E.J. Liddell chose to play college hoops for the Buckeyes for games such as this. Seth Towns came back home to Columbus to experience the stage now set in front of him.
As much as Ohio State abides by the Sam Hinkie-era Philadelphia 76ers adage of “Trust The Process,” trying its best to focus on continual improvement rather than overemphasizing singular games, the top-10 Big Ten showdown in front of this team can’t possibly be minimized.
| Who | Where | When | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa (13-4, 7-3) | Iowa City, Iowa (Carver–Hawkeye Arena) | 7 p.m. | ESPN |
The Buckeyes have risen all the way to No. 7 in the Associated Press top-25 poll after winning six of their last seven games, and they have a shot to play themselves into the top five on Thursday night when they take on a No. 8-ranked Iowa team led by National Player of the Year frontrunner Luka Garza. The game tips off at 7 p.m. on ESPN.
“Obviously Iowa is tremendous,” Holtmann said on Wednesday. “Fran (McCaffrey) has a tremendous team. They're really well coached. They're elite offensively. Historically good offensively.”
A win against the Hawkeyes would send Ohio State’s hype train chugging out of the station.
Within the last month, Holtmann’s group – now 14-4 overall and 8-4 in conference play – has already upset three Big Ten teams ranked within the top-15 at the time of their respective games. First Rutgers, then Illinois and finally Wisconsin. Could Iowa be next? Even though the Illini and Badgers both remain ranked, a win on Thursday would be the most impressive up to this point and could put Ohio State next to the top national contenders by the next time the polls come out.
Iowa's resumé features plenty of quality wins, including those against Purdue, Rutgers, North Carolina, Minnesota, Michigan State and Northwestern. Those victories have propelled them to a top-10 ranking and the No. 4 spot on KenPom. But it should be noted that the Hawkeyes haven’t beaten a team rated higher than 23rd by KenPom – the Buckeyes are No. 10, per the site – and have lost two of their past three games to Illinois on the road and Indiana at home.
Three Things To Watch
Offensive Firepower Galore...Defense, Not So Much
On one end of the court, those watching will see the nation's most efficient offense (Iowa), and on the other end everybody will get to see the country's fourth-most efficient offense (Ohio State). In short: There could be a lot of points scored in Iowa City on Thursday evening.
In particular, the Hawkeyes have nothing less than a ridiculous offense. Just ask the head coach who has to figure out how best to defend it.
“I think, in a lot of ways, this is the best offensive team I've ever coached against,” Holtmann said. “They just have tremendous skill and ability. (Jordan) Bohannon's given them a lift as an older guard coming back from injury. (CJ) Fredrick's a terrific scoring guard. Connor McCaffrey, I just love his game. He competes. He plays with an edge. He's the best post-feeder in the country. He can defend multiple positions. I love McCaffrey and how he plays. (Joe) Wieskamp obviously has been on the NBA radar a couple years. And then you have Garza, who's been the best player in college basketball the last couple of years.”
The only teams in the KenPom era (2002-present) to have a better adjusted offensive efficiency than this year’s Hawkeyes were 2014-15 Wisconsin, 2016-17 Oklahoma State and 2017-18 Villanova.
It begins, of course, with Garza, who averages an eye-popping 26.5 points and 8.8 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game. His shooting split of 59.6/45.6/72.7 is downright unfair. Wieskamp's 14.2 points per game make him Iowa's second-leading scorer, and of course he's also a 45.2 percent shooter from 3. From there, the Hawkeyes have a slew of role players who get into the action, including Bohannon (9.5 points) and Fredrick (8.7 points). Part of what makes Iowa special offensively is its lack of glaring weaknesses – along with a Big Ten-best turnover rate of only 13.7 percent. The Hawkeyes rank in the top half of the conference in all major offensive categories.
Ohio State hasn’t had quite the offensive season of its upcoming foe, but Holtmann’s group can put up points in bunches too. It has reached the 80-point mark in half of its victories this season.
Also of note: These two teams have, by far, the lowest adjusted defensive efficiency among everybody in the top-10. So, yeah, expect points. Lots of them.
Battle Of The Frontcourts
The past couple of years, Holtmann thinks Garza deserves credit as college basketball’s best player.
“I don't think that's an overstatement,” he said.
It isn’t. He could have won National Player of the Year last season when Dayton’s Obi Toppin earned the honors, and he’ll almost certainly get awarded the title later this spring. As Holtmann said, the Buckeyes haven’t faced anybody like him yet this season.
So, matching up with Garza and Wieskamp will be nothing less than a major test for E.J. Liddell, Kyle Young and Zed Key, the trio of forwards whose level of play has the potential to swing this game in their direction.
“Collectively, their size is a concern,” Holtmann said.
Liddell has taken a turn toward becoming a legitimate star in the Big Ten, scoring at least 20 points in three straight games and in four of his past five, and he’ll need another big game on both ends of the court on Thursday. His three-level scoring will have to remain consistent. Young’s energy and grit, along with improved finishing around the rim, make him a key cog as usual. Key will get some minutes too, whether matched up against Garza or somebody else.
Reliable, Impactful Depth On Both Sides
There’ll be a lot of focus going into this game on Garza and Liddell and on Duane Washington Jr. and Wieskamp, and for good reason. Those guys can each swing the outcome of games.
Yet this result could come down to role players. Both the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes go deep on their benches, each with nine players who average at least 10 minutes per game.
On the Ohio State side of things, somebody like Justin Ahrens becomes incredibly important. Sure, he probably won’t score 29 points like the first time he faced Iowa in his career, but the sharpshooter has hit multiple 3-pointers in six straight games. He’ll have to make his shots from deep, and so will Seth Towns whose minutes could be limited but who provides a scoring punch when he’s on the court. Key’s physicality on the block and finishing at the rim, along with Musa Jallow’s defense, could come into play.
Iowa has a slew of guys to keep in mind, too, including forward Jack Nunge, forward Keegan Murray, forward Patrick McCaffrey and guard Joe Toussaint off of the bench behind Garza, Wieskamp, Bohannon, Fredrick and Connor McCaffrey. As Holtmann noted, they “rotate a lot of bodies.”
“They've got a really deep bench,” Holtmann said. “It's not just about the starting group. They've got a really deep bench. So, we're looking forward to the challenge. It'll be a great one. We'll need to play as well as we've played all year.”
Prediction: Ohio State 87, Iowa 85
