Ohio State fans made up their mind on March 20, 2014.
The Dayton Flyers, with their hotshot 35-year-old head coach, had just upset Aaron Craft and the Buckeyes in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on a last-second layup by Vee Sanford. Dayton would go on to reach the Elite Eight, and followed that up with three more NCAA Tournament appearances in the next three years.
Ohio State, meanwhile, reached the Big Dance the next year, but missed out in both 2015-16 and 2016-17. It was obvious that Thad Matta wasn't the same coach as he once was, but it appeared that Ohio State was willing to give him one more shot in 2017-18.
Miller, of course, knew Ohio State well. Before knocking them out of the tournament in 2014, he was an assistant under Matta from 2007-2009. But he couldn't wait forever, and ultimately decided to take the Indiana job. He was hired just about a week after Tom Crean was fired in March 2017, much to the chagrin of some Ohio State fans, who felt as though the school waited too long to make a move on a struggling Matta.
Need someone to let me know why OSU didn't fire Thad Matta and hire Archie Miller
— E-wan Kenobi (@EwwyVert) March 26, 2017
Thad Matta should have been fired after the season. Missed out on a chance to hire Archie Miller.
— Coach Drew (@andy_stawicki2) June 5, 2017
Would've been nice if Matta would've left about three months ago so we couldve hire archie Miller
— Brandon Luthman (@TheLuthman) June 5, 2017
There are some that felt as though the Ohio State job was a better fit for Miller, compared to the Indiana job. In addition to his previous ties to the school, some, including Stadium analyst Jeff Goodman, believed that the Indiana job might be too big for Miller, and his personality could be better suited to a school like Ohio State, where basketball will always be the second-most popular sport.
"[Ohio State] kind of fits [Archie] a little bit more,” Goodman said recently in a podcast appearance. “At Indiana you’re in that fishbowl, and that’s not Archie. He’d rather be the second fiddle and just coach.”
Now, what if Indiana had hired Holtmann? There has been no inkling that he was even considered for the job, and Holtmann himself has said that he never spoke to anyone from Indiana regarding the job. But should the Hoosiers have taken a closer look? Just about an hour north from Bloomington, Holtmann was tearing it up at Butler in Indianapolis, promptly leading the Bulldogs to three straight tournament appearances of their own after taking over for Brandon Miller.
In hindsight, what is incredible is that there was more support for Crean to end up in Columbus than there was for Holtmann to end up in Bloomington.
I doubt Holtmann leaves Butler for OSU. Unpopular opinion: Tom Crean to Columbus?
— Kurt Darling (@WIBCKurtDarling) June 5, 2017
Dick Vitale thinks Ohio State should try to hire Tom Crean https://t.co/QnDsDHufuj pic.twitter.com/38IncuI7Ye
— Land Of 10 (@landof10) June 6, 2017
If Ohio State doesn't hire Tom Crean they don't deserve to have a good basketball program
— Michael Frauenheim (@Mfrauenheim2) June 6, 2017
Ohio state should hire Tom Crean. Guy has had success in the big10 (won it a year ago)
— Dave Dynia (@D_Dynia) June 8, 2017
Of course, that never came close to happening, and after a search that basically revolved around just Holtmann and Greg McDermott, Ohio State officially announced the hire on June 9, 2017.
Since then, the numbers are staggering.
| HOLTMANN | MILLER | |
|---|---|---|
| WINNING % | .683 | .559 |
| b1G WINNING % | .611 | .451 |
| hEAD-TO-HEAD | 6-1 | 1-6 |
| NCAA Tournament appearances | 2* | 0* |
Of course, both Ohio State and Indiana would have likely made the tournament in 2020 had the event not been cancelled due to COVID-19, but that doesn't exactly make it much better for Miller. He has been outperformed by Holtmann in every category despite Indiana having higher-ranked recruiting classes in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Ohio State has yet to sign a five-star recruit under Holtmann, while Miller has signed two during the same time period.
Numbers never lie. And Holtmann has the better ones in every category on the court.
Holtmann has overachieved seemingly every season in Columbus:
- 2017-18: He took a group left over by Matta and went from 17-15 to 25-9 despite his bench featuring a former walk-on point guard and a 17-year-old Musa Jallow.
- 2018-19: Big Ten Player of the Year Keita Bates-Diop leaves along with Jae'Sean Tate. C.J. Jackson and grad transfer Keyshawn Woods are the only seniors, Holtmann beats Miller in the Big Ten Tournament to “clinch” an NCAA Tournament berth, Buckeyes upset Iowa State in the first round and finish 20-15.
- 2019-20: With only one senior (Andre Wesson) and highly touted point guard D.J. Carton leaving the team for mental health reasons, the Buckeyes finish the season ranked as the No. 19 team before the NCAA Tournament is canceled due to COVID-19.
- 2020-21: Ohio State is currently ranked as the No. 4 team, Holtmann just beat Miller again and the Buckeyes are a possible No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament.
It has been the opposite for Miller.
- 2017-18: The Hoosiers lost at home to Indiana State in their first game and finished 16-15 after losing their last three games, including one to Ohio State and one to last-place Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament.
- 2018-19: Despite having both Juwan Morgan and Romeo Langford on the roster, Indiana finished with an 8-12 conference record, lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament and lost in the NIT quarterfinals.
- 2019-20: With a possible tournament appearance negated by COVID-19, the Hoosiers finished 9-11 in conference and unranked.
- 2020-21: The Hoosiers are currently 11-9 and on the NCAA Tournament bubble again after Miller's most recent loss to Holtmann.
So, here we are, almost four full seasons later, with Ohio State having come out ahead in every possible metric. Hindsight is hindsight, but perhaps it worked out better that Matta left in June, rather than March.
