It’s official.
On Saturday, Ohio State’s loss to Illinois locked the Buckeyes into the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tournament, and on Sunday night the rest of the bracket became official. Chris Holtmann’s squad gets the winner of Northwestern-Minnesota at approximately 2 p.m. Thursday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Here’s what the field looks like:
With everything set, we put together six initial thoughts on Ohio State’s draw and path to the title game.
Single Bye Might Be A Blessing
At this point, it feels like Ohio State needs a winnable game more than one extra day of rest and one fewer game on the path to a conference title.
This is a team that, not too long ago, looked like it might be in contention for a regular-season Big Ten crown. It spent three straight weeks as the nation’s No. 4-ranked team, behind no-doubt-about-it national championship contenders in Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan. It had avoided back-to-back losses all year and secured wins against Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. Things were going so, so well.
But these Buckeyes, after dropping consecutive games to Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois, just need a win. They need to get back on track. They need a get-right game. Hypothetically, that’s exactly what a second-round matchup with either Northwestern or Minnesota will provide as sub-.500 teams that finished above only Nebraska in conference play.
Sure, a double bye would have been nice. But by the time Big Ten tournament play starts, this team won’t have experienced a victory in three full weeks. Ohio State needs a win and to remind itself what made this group so good and so dominant for much of the season.
First Game is Essentially A Must-Win
One thing about playing the Wildcats or Golden Gophers in Round 2 instead of securing a double bye? Ohio State had better not lose on Thursday.
It would be nothing short of a disaster if the Buckeyes dropped their last four regular-season games then proceeded to let a basement-dweller with a head coach on rocky footing drag them out of contention for a conference title in their first game in Indianapolis. If that were to happen, they’d go into the NCAA tournament on a five-game skid without having won a game in over a month.
Calling a second-round Big Ten tournament game a “must-win” would almost always feel overboard. This time, it feels apt.
Need A Revenge Tour
For obvious reasons to anybody who paid attention to Michigan in 2018, it would be probably best for Holtmann to avoid using the term “Revenge Tour.” But that idea is what the Buckeyes will have to execute.
Ohio State lost to Northwestern on Dec. 26 and Minnesota on Jan. 3. One of those two teams will be their second-round opponent. The Buckeyes lost to Purdue on Dec. 16 and Jan. 19, and the Boilermakers will be awaiting a rematch on Friday in the quarterfinals. If Ohio State wins two in a row, it'll likely have another shot in the semifinals at Michigan, which won 92-87 on Feb. 21. Then, if the Buckeyes make it all the way to the conference title game, they might meet either Illinois or Iowa, the two teams they lost to at the end of the regular season.
In other words, if Ohio State is to make a run all the way to the championship game next Sunday, it should expect to have to do so by going entirely through teams it has already lost games to in the past three months.
It Probably Could’ve Been Worse
Given the depth of the Big Ten that has made it nationally renowned as the undisputed best conference in college basketball this season, Ohio State was never going to have an easy draw. That just doesn’t exist. But this path is, perhaps, a bit easier than the alternatives.
The Buckeyes, who just got done with a Murderer’s Row to end the regular season, don’t have to jump right back into a game against a ranked opponent. They avoid the trio of top-five teams in the country – Michigan, Illinois and Iowa – in the quarterfinals, instead taking on a Purdue team they have lost to twice but seems less daunting of an opponent than the three top seeds. Had Wisconsin beat the Hawkeyes on Sunday, Iowa would be the No. 4 seed that Ohio State would’ve potentially played in the quarterfinals instead of the Boilermakers.
Again, it’s maybe easier. Far from easy.
Ohio State-Michigan 2.0 Would Be Fun ... And Difficult
OK, OK, Ohio State’s probably not in the position right now where it’s worth looking ahead at all. A fair point.
But…
The possibility of an Ohio State-Michigan rematch in the semifinals looms. To make it a reality, the Buckeyes would have to get through either Northwestern or Minnesota then Purdue, and the Wolverines would need to beat Maryland or Michigan State. That’s a realistic possibility, and getting to that game on Saturday should be a goal for the Buckeyes.
Not too long ago, in the immediate aftermath of Juwan Howard’s Wolverines coming out on top by five points a few weeks ago, all of college basketball wanted to see Round 2 in the Big Ten tournament. Does that widespread desire still exist? Probably not. But it certainly is present in Columbus.
Potentially Four Games in Four Days
A run all the way through the Big Ten tournament to the conference championship game would require Ohio State to play four games in four days. Given the state of this team’s health, that’s somewhat of a daunting proposition.
To be fair, the Buckeyes aren’t the only ones dealing with injuries. On Sunday, Iowa’s Joe Wieskamp and Michigan’s Eli Brooks left games and didn’t return with lower-body injuries that required medical boots, and those aren’t the only ones that could affect this tournament. But the proposition of winning and playing on consecutive days is perhaps tougher for Ohio State than most others.
Kyle Young has endured multiple seasons of lower-leg pain, and Holtmann hasn’t tried to hide the fact that he has sat out numerous practices this season out of necessity. Justice Sueing’s dealing with a groin injury that Holtmann said on Saturday is hindering Sueing “significantly” in practices. CJ Walker continues to play with three fingers together in a splint because of torn ligaments in his hand. Musa Jallow has been playing through a sprained ankle that forced him out of a game. Seth Towns continues to deal with knee soreness, playing against the Illini with a brace.
Can this group of Buckeyes sustain such a high level of play while taking the court four times in four days? It’s one of the many challenges facing this group.
