Making a run to the Final Four isn’t going to be easy, but it does look possible for this year’s Ohio State men’s basketball team.
As the No. 2 seed in the South Region, Ohio State should be favored to win at least three NCAA Tournament games and make the Elite Eight. No. 1 seed Baylor is the favorite to win the South Region, yet the Buckeyes’ draw could have been worse.
Can Ohio State win four NCAA Tournament games in a row and make its first Final Four since 2012? After the Buckeyes won three straight games in the Big Ten Tournament and forced overtime in the final, they at least look like a team that’s capable of stringing together wins and competing with the best teams in college basketball.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in March Madness, and before the Buckeyes can start thinking about the Final Four, they have to get through the first, second and third rounds, first. And while all of their potential opponents in those rounds look like teams Ohio State should be able to beat, there’s still plenty of dangerous teams in the region who are capable of an upset win.
With that in mind, we take a closer look at the opponents Ohio State could face in each of the first four rounds, why the Buckeyes could/should beat each of those opponents and how likely it is that they actually will.
First Round
Opponent: #15 Oral Roberts
We’ve already published multiple (1) articles (2) about Ohio State’s first-round opponent, so we don’t need to rehash those too much here.
Oral Roberts is one of the best 3-point and free throw shooting teams in the country and has the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas, who averages 24.2 points per game. Those are reasons to be slightly wary of an upset, especially considering Ohio State that is not an excellent defensive team.
But Ohio State is also a 16-point favorite for a reason. Oral Roberts is just 16-10 this season, and none of its wins have come against NCAA Tournament teams. The Golden Eagles are rated by KenPom as the worst defensive team in the entire tournament, while Ohio State has one of the nation’s best offenses.
Unless Ohio State really has an off day shooting the ball and Oral Roberts is on fire, the Buckeyes should be able to outscore the Golden Eagles fairly comfortably and advance to the Round of 32.
Bart Torvik's projected likelihood Ohio State advances to Round 2: 93.4%
Second Round
Potential Opponents: #7 Florida, #10 Virginia Tech
Assuming Ohio State advances to the second round, it will face a step up in talent when it plays its first Power 5 opponent of the tournament in either Florida or Virginia Tech. It’s difficult to forecast who will win that game – as of Wednesday night, most sportsbooks set the odds as a virtual coin flip – but the Buckeyes should be comfortably favored to beat either one of them.
Florida is a balanced team that has four double-digit scorers, including five-star recruit Tre Mann (who’s averaged 16 points per game) and a big man who could give the Buckeyes trouble in 6-foot-11 forward Colin Castleton (a Michigan transfer), who’s averaged 12 points along with 5.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. But the Gators are just 5-5 since the start of February.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has played just three games and won just once since Feb. 6 due to COVID-19 issues. The Hokies also have a forward who could give Ohio State problems in Keve Aluma, who’s averaged 15.6 points and 8.0 rebounds per game this season, but they went just 5-6 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games this season and have beaten just once NCAA Tournament team (Virginia) since 2020 became 2021.
Simply put, either potential second-round opponent could be capable of giving Ohio State a test, but it would be a major disappointment if the Buckeyes failed to advance to the Sweet 16.
Torvik's projected likelihood Ohio State advances to Sweet 16: 64.9%
Sweet 16
Potential Opponents: #3 Arkansas, #6 Texas Tech, #11 Utah State, #14 Colgate
This is where the degree of difficulty could really ratchet up for Ohio State. Most likely, making it to the Sweet 16 would mean a game against either Arkansas or Texas Tech, and either one of those teams should give the Buckeyes a competitive game.
Arkansas – rated by the selection committee as the No. 9 overall team in the tournament, and therefore the top 3 seed – has averaged the seventh-most points in the country this year (82.4) while KenPom rates the Razorbacks 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even though they don’t have a true big man, they rank 16th among all Division I teams with 40 rebounds per game this season, and they have a balanced lineup led by one of the nation’s best freshmen in Moses Moody (17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds per game) and Indiana transfer Justin Smith (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg). They had won nine straight games before falling to LSU in the SEC Tournament semifinals.
Moses Moody and Arkansas loom as a potential Sweet 16 opponent for Ohio State. (Photo: John Reed – USA TODAY Sports)
Texas Tech also certainly can’t be ruled out from making a run, given that Chris Beard’s squad went all the way to the national championship game in the most recent NCAA Tournament two years ago. This year’s Red Raiders aren’t as good as that team – Texas Tech is just 17-10 this season, and just 3-5 in its last eight games – but they’re a quality defensive team (allowing just 63.4 points per game) with four guards averaging double digits, led by Georgetown transfer Mac McClung (15.7 ppg).
At its best, Ohio State has been better than both of those teams, but it will need to be on its A-game at this point in the tournament to ensure it advances further.
Torvik's projected likelihood Ohio State advances to Elite Eight: 41.4%
Elite Eight
Potential Opponents: #1 Baylor, #4 Purdue, #5 Villanova, #8 North Carolina, #9 Wisconsin, #12 Winthrop, #13 North Texas, #16 Hartford
While there are myriad potential opponents Ohio State could face in the Elite Eight – including a possible fourth game of the year against Big Ten foe Purdue – whoever makes it out of the bottom half of the South Region is most likely headed for a date with Baylor, the No. 2 overall seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Baylor, a true national championship contender, will almost certainly be favored to win any game it plays before the Final Four. The Bears enter the tournament with a 22-2 record and an average scoring margin of 18 points per game with an offense that ranks third among all Division I teams with 84.4 points per game. Led by first-team AP All-American Jared Butler (17.1 points per game), third-team AP All-American Davion Mitchell (14.1 ppg) and fifth-year senior MaCio Teague (16.2 ppg), Baylor has the best trio of guards in college basketball and presents a massive test to any team’s perimeter defense.
That said, the Bears haven’t been quite the dominant force they were earlier in the season since their COVID-19 pause in February, and unlike most of the teams that have given Ohio State problems this year, they don’t have great size; none of their top four scorers are taller than 6-foot-4.
Beating Baylor will still be a massive challenge if Ohio State’s path to a Final Four berth ultimately comes to that, but the Bears do look like a more beatable opponent for the Buckeyes than Gonzaga, the other No. 1 seed that isn’t from the Big Ten. Which means the selection committee ranking Ohio State above Iowa, and therefore putting the Buckeyes in the South Region rather than the West Region, just might be the break that gives them a chance to extend their season into April.
Torvik's projected likelihood Ohio State advances to Final Four: 21%
