Ohio State's chances to win its first Big Ten title of any kind under Chris Holtmann looked bleak after the Buckeyes snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last Wednesday at Rutgers but with a convincing 68-57 road win over Michigan on Sunday, the squad remains in the conference title hunt with eight games to play.
| TEAM | B1G W-L | GB |
|---|---|---|
| ILLINOIS | 11-3 | - |
| PURDUE | 11-4 | 0.5 |
| WISCONSIN | 10-4 | 1 |
| MICHIGAN STATE | 9-4 | 1.5 |
| OHIO STATE | 8-4 | 2 |
| RUTGERS | 9-5 | 2 |
The win in Crisler Arena was huge for many reasons, notably giving the team some confidence on the road after losing four of its last five conference battles away from Value City Arena to that point.
E.J. Liddell was sensational once again for the Buckeyes, pouring in 28 points on 8-of-17 from the floor and 11-of-11 from the stripe. Reserve guard Cedric Russell continued his case for more minutes with 12 points on 5-of-8 from the field.
Ohio State also turned it over just eight times, marking the seventh-straight contest in which the Buckeyes recorded less than 10 turnovers.
The victory pulled Ohio State to 8-4 in regular season conference play, putting them two games back of league-leading Illinois. Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State slot just ahead of the Buckeyes as the race for a league title comes down to the wire.
So what about those eight games left for the Buckeyes? There are certainly some favorable factors even as they'll have to crank them out over just a 20-day span. First and foremost, Ohio State will play six of those eight at home where it is currently a perfect 10-0 overall and 4-0 against Big Ten opponents.
| OPPONENT | DATE / TIME | OPP B1G RECORD | KENPOM RANK |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINNESOTA | TUE 2/15, 8:30 PM | 3-10 | 99 |
| IOWA | SAT 2/19, 2:30 PM | 7-6 | 17 |
| INDIANA | MON 2/21, 12:00 PM | 7-7 | 42 |
| @ILLINOIS | THU 2/24, 9:00 PM | 11-3 | 15 |
| @MARYLAND | SUN 2/27, 4:00 PM | 3-11 | 92 |
| NEBRASKA | TUE 3/1, 7:00 PM | 1-13 | 171 |
| MICHIGAN STATE | THU 3/3, 7:00 PM | 9-4 | 23 |
| MICHIGAN | SUN 3/6, 12:30 PM | 7-6 | 35 |
Of the four teams currently ahead of the Buckeyes, they'll only get to see Illinois and Michigan State down the stretch after losing to Purdue by three in West Lafayette back on January 30 and splitting their season series with Wisconsin.
The good news is they get Michigan State at home but on the downside, they'll travel to the State Farm Center where the Illini sport a 6-1 record versus league opponents.
Beyond those two however, four of Ohio State's remaining eight games come against teams ranked in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings. Notably, tonight's opponent, Minnesota, along with Maryland and Nebraska, represent the three worst teams in conference action and the trio accounts for 38% of Ohio State's remaining schedule.
League-leader Illinois (11-3) has just six games to play but faces a much stiffer slate on paper with three road games versus Rutgers, Michigan State and Michigan, along with home dates against Ohio State plus Penn State and Iowa. How many might they lose? If they dropped two of three roadies and lost to the Buckeyes, they'd be 14-6 but 15-5 doesn't seem far-fetched. Anything can happen, maybe they lose all three on the road but that'd be a pretty major collapse for a team solidly in Kenpom's top-20.
Second-place Purdue (11-4) has just five games left to play but two of those come on the road against Michigan State and Wisconsin. Beyond those, they travel to Northwestern and get Rutgers and Indiana at home. I suppose a 14-6 record is a possibility versus 15-5 but it's likely a major stretch to think they'd lose three of five to finish 13-7.
Third-place Wisconsin (10-4), like Illinois, has six games remaining with three on the road. At Rutgers figures to be the toughest of the road trio also featuring trips to Indiana and Minnesota. Of their three home games left, the Badgers face Purdue in one and Michigan and Nebraska in the others. Losses at Rutgers and and home to the Boilers seem the most likely and the Badgers could be on their way to a 14-6 record. Of course, if they go 5-1, they'll finish 15-5.
Finally, fourth-place Michigan State (9-4) has seven league games left with four coming away from the Breslin Center. Ohio State is the headlining roadie backed up by trips to Penn State, Iowa and Michigan. The home games see Sparty host Illinois, Purdue and Maryland. Overall, that seems like a pretty tough slate. Going 6-1 to finish 15-5 feels highly unlikely and even a 5-2 finish to end up at 14-6 won't be a picnic.
To me, it feels like if any team gets to 15-5 it's a reasonable bet it'll at least tie for the conference crown and a 16-4 mark would put a team in position to win the league outright.
Back to Ohio State and its 8-4 record with eight to play, going 8-0 would obviously get the Buckeyes to 16-4, while winning seven of eight, with the loss assumedly coming at Illinois, would get Holtmann's squad to 15-5. Should the Buckeyes go 6-2 to finish 14-6, and the rest of the contenders struggle with the gauntlet that is the Big Ten stretch run, maybe Ohio State shares the regular season league title with a handful of teams. Anything worse than that and Holtmann will almost assuredly have to wait another year for a shot at an elusive Big Ten regular season crown.
I know winning the Big Ten doesn't matter to a lot of Buckeye fans anymore but in my opinion, it should. It would signal the Buckeyes are ready to truly compete with the upper crust of what is an elite league and that fan expectations aren't so tepid. With so many fans of the fair-weather, pay marginal attention once football is over ilk, it does nothing to increase the administration's or nation's expectations of Ohio State basketball both in conference and in the NCAA Tournament.
