Ohio State’s 16-point road win in Evanston to start the new year might have been its best performance of the season.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern (16-7, 7-5 B1G) | Schottenstein Center | 8 p.m. | FS1 |
The Buckeyes’ worst performance is harder to pick, as they’ve given us no shortage of options in the 10 games that followed their last meeting with the Wildcats. Ohio State’s only won one game since then, and it hardly resembles the same team that blew Northwestern out in its backyard.
The Wildcats haven’t looked like world-beaters since Jan. 1, but they’ve certainly been more consistent than the Buckeyes, winning six of their last 10 games to carry a 7-5 conference record into Thursday night’s rematch. Fresh off a road win over Wisconsin, a team that just beat Ohio State at the Schottenstein Center last week, Northwestern can exact revenge on a Buckeye team that simply can’t seem to get right in the second half of the regular season.
“Northwestern, as we thought last time we played them, is a really good team; old team, veteran team,” Chris Holtmann said Monday. “As I mentioned on the radio here just recently, having as good a years as they've had, really in a number of years. Certainly dating back to the tournament team, which I believe they are right now.”
Need to Know
One of the nation’s worst shooting teams
Northwestern is in fifth place in the Big Ten standings, but not because of its shooting efficiency. The Wildcats are dead last in the conference in field-goal percentage at 40.7%, which also ranks among the bottom 25 teams in Division I college basketball. The Wildcats also rank in the 300s nationally in 2-point percentage (47%) and 3-point percentage (31.6%). The latter statistic places Northwestern in 11th place in the Big Ten. The Wildcats had their second-worst shooting performance of the season in the Jan. 1 matchup (28.4%), but have finished with a better shooting percentage than their season average in eight of the last nine games.
Perimeter D will be key for OSU
As explained above, Northwestern doesn’t exactly possess a nationally elite offense. But if Ohio State wants to ensure another low-scoring performance from the Wildcats, it would be wise to key in on the Northwestern backcourt. Starting guards Boo Buie and Chase Audige do the heavy lifting for the Wildcat offense, as both players average upwards of six more points per game than any other player on the team. Buie and Audige combine to score 31.4 points per game, which is just under 46% of the team’s average offensive output. The pair shot just 28% from the floor in the first meeting with Ohio State, which was a primary factor in the Buckeyes’ blowout win.
Bucks need to move the ball
Only two of Ohio State’s 12 losses have come during games in which it finished with double-digit assists. The Buckeyes are 1-10 on the season when they toss fewer than 10 assists in a game, and as you might have guessed, they’ve failed to finish with 10 or more in all four games along their current losing streak. The one time in the last nine games that Ohio State finished with more than nine dimes was its 16-point home win over Iowa on Jan. 21, the only victory on the Buckeyes’ résumé since their last matchup with Northwestern.
Three Important Buckeyes
Bruce Thornton
After a month-long slump, Thornton broke through the freshman wall with a vengeance on Sunday. A new captain for the Buckeyes following a recent team revote, Thornton scored a career-high 22 points against Michigan on 10-for-13 shooting. It didn’t result in an Ohio State win, but the Buckeyes are bound to get one sooner or later if Thornton can turn in more performances like that down the stretch.
Brice Sensabaugh
Sensabaugh had his worst shooting day of the season on Sunday and has now put forth two of his shakiest efforts of the past two months in back-to-back games. Sensabaugh shot just 4-for-14 from the floor to finish with 14 points against Michigan, and he only scored 13 points against Indiana the game before that. The freshman forward fouled out of both contests and was removed from the starting lineup for the Michigan matchup. However, Holtmann said Sensabaugh will play starter minutes whether he comes off the bench or not.
Zed Key
Key averaged 14 points per game through the first 11 games of the season. In his last 11 performances, Key hasn’t even cracked 13 points in a single game. The Buckeye big man hasn’t been the same player since suffering a should sprain against Purdue, and a subsequent knee injury against Iowa didn’t help matters. Key only scored six points in 24 minutes against Michigan, and the Buckeyes need a lot more than that out of their starting center if they hope to win some games before the end of the regular season.
Three Important Wildcats
Boo Buie
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Season Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOO BUIE | G | 6-2 | 180 | 16.1 PPG, 4.5 APG |
| TY BERRY | G | 6-2 | 190 | 8.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG |
| CHASE AUDIGE | G | 6-4 | 200 | 15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG |
| ROBBIE BERAN | F | 6-9 | 215 | 8.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG |
| MATTHEW NICHOLSON | C | 7-0 | 255 | 6.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG |
Northwestern’s leading scorer and facilitator is averaging 16.3 points and 4.5 assists per game as a senior. Buie was limited to just 3-for-15 shooting in the first matchup with the Buckeyes, but since then, he’s averaging 19 points per game with six 20-point performances in the past 10 games. Buie dropped at least 20 points in three straight games before a slight dip in production with 13 against Wisconsin on Sunday.
Chase Audige
Another standout senior guard leading the Northwestern roster, Audige led the Wildcats with 16 points in the first Ohio State matchup, but it took him 17 shots to do it. The William & Mary transfer is averaging 15.3 points for the season but is shooting just 33.3% from the field and 13.3% from 3-point range in his past three performances.
Ty Berry
Northwestern’s third-leading scorer hit double digits in the Jan. 1 matchup against the Buckeyes, and Berry dropped a career-high 26 points against Nebraska just five games ago. Aside from that performance, though, the junior has struggled considerably as of late. Berry scored 12 points combined in the past four games with a sub-30% clip from the field in those outings.
How it Plays Out
Line: OSU -5.5, O/U: 138.5
Ohio State has home-floor advantage and a matchup with a team it already blew out on the road. But given the Buckeyes’ recent results and Northwestern’s status as a top-five team in the Big Ten, those things don’t carry much weight into Thursday night’s contest.
Prediction: Northwestern 68, Ohio State 64
