On paper, Thursday’s matchup appears to be the most winnable game remaining on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State (16-11, 7-9 B1G) | Schottenstein Center | 6:30 p.m. | FS1 |
Given that the Buckeyes have already lost to Illinois, Maryland and Michigan State – the three teams it plays after Penn State – a meeting with the Big Ten’s 11th-place Nittany Lions may be Ohio State’s best bet.
But Penn State is far from a pushover. At 7-9 in conference play, the Nittany Lions have more than twice as many league wins as the Buckeyes, and are riding back-to-back victories over Minnesota and Illinois into Thursday’s contest. Led by Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Jalen Pickett and a host of other seniors, Penn State is the oldest team in the conference and takes on a Buckeye team likely to start four true freshmen on Thursday.
“This is a good Penn State team. They’re experienced and well-coached and shoot it really well. They’re certainly one of the best teams in the country at making threes and attempting threes, so it’s gonna be a big key for the game,” Chris Holtmann said Wednesday. “They’ve got a player of the year candidate in Pickett, who’s had a phenomenal year. He’s an interesting matchup just with how big and physical he is at the point guard spot, and he’s had some monster games. So obviously it’ll be a great challenge.”
Ohio State’s dropped eight straight games amid a stretch of 13 losses in 14 games. The Buckeyes don’t even have much chance for upward mobility in the Big Ten standings ahead of the conference tournament. But the program is starved for a win, which would go a long way in rebuilding confidence before the postseason.
Need to Know
B1G’s most prolific 3-point shooting team
No team in the Big Ten has shot (754) or made (293) as many 3-pointers as Penn State this season. In fact, it’s not even all that close. The Nittany Lions also shoot the best percentage from beyond the arc in the conference (38.9%). Penn State’s hit at least 10 3-pointers in each of its past three contests, and four different Nittany Lions are averaging better than 41% from the 3-point line on the season.
Penn State struggles on the glass
For all of Penn State’s success on the perimeter, it’s had just as many issues on the boards. The Nittany Lions average the second-fewest team rebounds in the Big Ten (32 per game) and rank dead last in offensive rebounds per game (5.6). Penn State is also third-worst in the league in rebounding margin, with a -3 differential. Given that the Buckeyes were outrebounded 44-21 on Sunday, an easier night on the boards would be a welcome sight.
Key out for the season
Ohio State will be without its starting center for the remainder of the year. Limited by a shoulder injury for much of the season, Zed Key tweaked it again against Iowa last week and missed Sunday’s matchup with Purdue. Holtmann announced Wednesday that the junior will have season-ending surgery soon. Key wasn’t as productive for the Buckeyes after re-aggravating the injury in early January, but Ohio State will feel the loss of its leading rebounder and third-leading scorer nonetheless.
Three Important Buckeyes
Brice Sensabaugh
After turning in five 20-point performances in January, Sesnabaugh had his first of the month on Sunday. The freshman forward hit eight of his 16 shot attempts to finish with a shooting percentage above 50% for the second straight game. Sensabaugh shot just 22.2% in the three games prior. However, eight of Sensabaugh’s points came in the final 2:16, and Ohio State will need him to get going earlier than that on Thursday.
Roddy Gayle
The true freshman guard has started the past three games straight for Ohio State, and he’ll likely continue to do so down the stretch despite battling an ankle injury. Holtmann thinks highly of the defensive tenacity Gayle brings to the table for the Buckeyes, and that will be particularly important Thursday given the perimeter scoring and 3-point shooting capabilities that the Nittany Lions possess.
Felix Okpara
With Zed Key sidelined, Okpara will likely make the fourth start of his freshman season on Thursday. Okpara only logged 16 minutes against Purdue as he got in foul trouble defending Zach Edey, but his load is likely to increase if he can avoid early fouls. The Nittany Lions also possess far less size than the Boilermakers, although they’ve started 6-foot-10 forward Kebba Njie in each of the last three games.
“I think he’s got to play better in terms of staying out of foul trouble,” Holtmann said. “He’s gonna be a guy that we’re obviously gonna really lean on next year, and he cannot have some of the careless fouls that he had against Purdue. … Learning that right now is important. I think that’s the biggest thing, and then just learning how he can impact the game. He’s obviously got tremendous size, really good athleticism.”
Three Important Nittany Lions
Jalen Pickett
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAMREN WYNTER | G | 6-2 | 175 | 7.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG |
| JALEN PICKETT | G | 6-4 | 202 | 18.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG |
| ANDREW FUNK | G | 6-5 | 188 | 12.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG |
| SETH LUNDY | F | 6-6 | 219 | 14.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG |
| KEBBA NJIE | F | 6-10 | 237 | 3.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG |
Penn State’s leading scorer is averaging a career-high 18.6 points per game this season, which also ranks fourth in the Big Ten. The 6-foot-4 senior guard has been blazing hot in the past two games, having put up 41 points against Illinois and 32 in a win over Minnesota four days later. Pickett’s also averaging 7.4 rebounds and seven assists per game amid a sensational season for the Nittany Lions.
“When a guy’s that hot, there’s not really much you can do. But all we really can do is try to give him different looks, try to force him into making tough shots,” Gayle said. “And if we force him into making a contested two, I feel like we won that possession. But we’re just gonna show him different looks, whether it’s Ice (Likekele), me, Bruce (Thornton), Justice (Sueing) guarding him, I feel like we are very capable defenders. And I don’t think he’s gonna have a 40-point night against us.”
Seth Lundy
Lundy’s fourth season at Penn State has been the best of his college career. Shooting 48.2% from the floor (up from 39.5% last year), the 6-foot-6 forward is averaging 14.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game – both career highs. Lundy is also knocking down 44.1% of his 3-point attempts this season and shoots the second-most among Nittany Lions with 6.2 per game.
Andrew Funk
Bucknell transfer guard Andrew Funk has started all 27 games for the Nittany Lions in his first year with the program, and the fifth-year senior is putting up 12.6 points per game on just 9.7 shots. Funk takes an average of 7.4 shots from beyond the 3-point line alone and hits 41.2% of his long-range attempts. Funk’s scored at least 10 points in 10 of his past 11 appearances for Penn State.
How it Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -1.5, O/U: 142.5
If Pickett maintains his recent dominance and Penn State continues to knock down 3-pointers at a breakneck pace, Ohio State could be in trouble again on Thursday. And once again, I can’t predict a better performance from the Buckeyes until I see one. Either way, Ohio State should make this one closer than its last few games have been.
Prediction: Penn State 73, Ohio State 68
