Time is running out on the Buckeyes’ opportunity to win a game before the Big Ten Tournament.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois (19-9, 10-7 B1G) | Schottenstein Center | Noon | CBS |
Ohio State has lost nine games in a row and 14 of its past 15, and its three final contests of the regular season all come against opponents it’s already suffered defeats to. First up on that list is Illinois, which sits third in the conference standings and handed the Buckeyes a 69-60 loss in Champaign back on Jan. 24. While the single-digit margin suggests a close encounter, Ohio State only avoided a more lopsided result with a late push in garbage time.
The Buckeyes have home-court advantage in the rematch, but that hasn’t helped them much in their last four home games, and Brad Underwood and company are coming off their best win of the month. On Thursday, Illinois stopped a blazing-hot Northwestern team that had won five in a row to ascend to No. 21 in the AP poll and the second-place slot in the Big Ten standings. The Illini bested the Wildcats, 66-62, and now head on the road to face a team with significantly less momentum.
A win for Ohio State would mean little more than a sigh of relief after a seven-and-a-half week free fall, but any boost of confidence could help the Buckeyes ahead of a postseason run that will provide their only remaining chance at an NCAA Tournament berth.
Need to Know
OSU 0-4 in rematches
Ohio State has been hard-pressed to win any game over the past two months, but that’s been especially true in its second matchup with a particular opponent. In fact, every time the Buckeyes have been in a rematch this season, the outcome has been worse than the first time around.
Ohio State beat Rutgers on a buzzer-beater on Dec. 8, but lost in overtime the following month. The Buckeyes blew out Northwestern on New Year’s Day, then dropped to the Wildcats at home by six points earlier this month. Purdue beat the Buckeyes by only two on Jan. 5, then decimated Ohio State by 27 at Mackey Arena last weekend. After blowing Iowa out by 16 on Jan. 21, the Hawkeyes returned the favor in a 17-point rematch win on Feb. 16.
Needless to say, that’s not a good trend for Ohio State entering Sunday’s second crack at Illinois.
Illini under .500 on the road
Illinois has been elite on its home floor this season, but it’s a different story on the road. In true road games, the Illini are just 3-5 on the year, and they’ve lost their last three at Indiana, Penn State and Iowa. It’s been nearly a month since Illinois’ last road win, which came at Wisconsin on Jan. 28. Throw in neutral-site games and Illinois is still two games below .500 at 5-7 in 2022-23. Ohio State has lost its last four games at the Schottenstein Center, but hopes to contribute to Illinois’ road struggles on Sunday.
Youth movement
Ohio State has now started four true freshmen in each of the past two games, and while that didn’t pay dividends against Purdue, the first-year quartet was considerably more productive on Thursday. Freshmen scored 30 of Ohio State’s 37 first-half points against Penn State, and by game’s end, Brice Sensabaugh and Bruce Thornton combined to score 55% of Ohio State’s points by themselves. Roddy Gayle only logged 12 minutes against the Nittany Lions, but all four are likely to continue starting for the Buckeyes as Holtmann looks to get his young players more experience late in the year.
Three Important Buckeyes
Bruce Thornton
Thornton had his second-best scoring performance of the season against Penn State, hitting seven of his 12 field goal attempts and three of his seven 3-point shots to finish with 19 points in the four-point loss. Thornton stepped up time and time again to help the Buckeyes hang tough against the Nittany Lions throughout, but not enough of his teammates followed suit to push Ohio State over the top for a win.
Brice Sensabaugh
Leading the Buckeyes with 20 points against Penn State, Sensabaugh has now put up 20 points in back-to-back games for just the second time all season. He might have scored even more, but the freshman forward was benched for a nine-minute stretch in the second half as Holtmann cited his defensive shortcomings in his post-game press conference. It’s clear Sensabaugh must continue to improve on that end, but his offense is indispensable for the Buckeyes at this juncture in the season.
Felix Okpara
In his second straight start in place of Zed Key (shoulder, out for the season), Okpara turned in one of his most impressive offensive performances of the season. The freshman center didn’t miss a shot from the floor en route to an eight-point night that saw him score on two alley-oop dunks and two left-handed jump hooks in the post. Okpara finished with just one rebound in 18 minutes of action, though, which is less than satisfactory given Ohio State’s lack of big man depth.
Three Important Illini
Terrence Shannon
| Player | Position | Height | Weight | Season Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAYDEN EPPS | G | 6-2 | 190 | 10 PPG, 1.9 RPG |
| TERRENCE SHANNON | G | 6-6 | 225 | 17.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG |
| MATTHEW MAYER | G | 6-9 | 225 | 12.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG |
| DAIN DAINJA | F | 6-9 | 270 | 10.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG |
| COLEMAN HAWKINS | F | 6-10 | 225 | 9.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG |
Illinois’ go-to scoring option is averaging 23 points per game in his past two appearances and 17.3 on the season. Shannon missed two games while dealing with a concussion suffered on Feb. 14, but despite coming off the bench in his return to action against Northwestern on Thursday, the Texas Tech transfer had his best shooting night of the season (8-for-10) in a 26-point performance.
Matthew Mayer
Since scoring 12 points in the last matchup with Ohio State, Mayer has been on a tear for the Illini. The Baylor transfer averaged 17.8 points and 6.9 rebounds in the past eight games, with four 20-point performances in that stretch. Mayer’s averaged 20 a night in his last three contests, and his recent hot streak could make him a bigger factor in the second go-round with the Buckeyes.
Dain Dainja
The 6-foot-9, 270-pound big man wasn’t much of a factor in the first game against Ohio State. In just 13 minutes of action, Dainja scored just six points and pulled down four rebounds in the nine-point Illini win. But perhaps with Key out, Dainja could make more of an impact against a Buckeye team that only has one true center on the roster for the remainder of the season.
How It Plays Out
Line: Illinois -3, O/U: 145.5
If nothing else, Ohio State showed signs of life against Penn State, and perhaps that could push the Buckeyes toward a better performance on Sunday. But Illinois proved to be far too much for the scarlet and gray in the first meeting, and I don’t envision a vastly different result this weekend.
Prediction: Illinois 77, Ohio State 70
