Mixed Day of Bubble Results Means Ohio State Could Need More Than Just One More Win in Big Ten Tournament

Beyond their result knocking a bubble team out with a 90-78 win over Iowa, the Buckeyes saw other contenders along the bubble bolster their résumés.

What's more, a bid may have been stolen for the bracket, thinning the margin of error for Ohio State and its bubble opponents. The win over the Hawkeyes added a Q2 victory for the Buckeyes but it lost a Q2 win in the same breath as its win over Maryland was demoted from Q2 to Q3.

An at-large bid to the NCAA tournament for Ohio State was always going to require a win over No. 13 Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, but a Saturday victory is creeping toward necessity for the Buckeyes, too.

OSU has climbed into the first four teams out of the tournament per CBS' Jerry Palm, and the next four out per ESPN's Joe Lunardi. Just one of the 105 bracket projections aggregated by Bracketmatrix.com places the Buckeyes in the tourney on the strength of their current résumé alone.

What hurt

Bid Stolen in Atlantic 10

The Atlantic 10 Tournament is only in its semifinal stage as of Friday but the conference is looking like it could get an extra team in the NCAA Tournament than previously expected.

With Dayton already a near-lock to make NCAAs, each of the top four seeds in the league's bracket lost on Thursday. No teams below that seed line were anywhere near the bracket projections listed above.

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The one saving grace is that Richmond, the conference's regular-season champion and a bubble team, saw its tourney chances all but decimated after being handed a Quadrant 2 loss by Saint Joseph's in the quarterfinals. Ohio State's résumé has now likely surpassed the Spiders', with a better NET ranking, more Q1 wins and only one fewer Q2 win against a tougher schedule.

Regardless of whether Ohio State would have gotten in over Richmond anyway had the Spiders fallen in a later round, the results in the A-10 tourney will, at best, be a neutral outcome for OSU. All that said, the Spiders are now entirely out of the picture for Lunardi, the Matrix and Palm.

New Mexico upsets Boise State

This one is an unquestioned negative for Ohio State's NCAA Tournament chances.

With an 11:30 p.m. tip, this is one most Buckeye fans were fast asleep for at the final whistle. But New Mexico, a team considered among the first four teams out by many pundits entering Thursday, picked up a massive Q1 victory over Boise State in the Mountain West Tournament, 76-66. As a result, the Lobos are now Lunardi's top team out, a 10 seed per Palm and the top team out according to the Matrix.

Texas A&M defeats Ole Miss

With the number of quality wins and the head-to-head result over Ohio State that the Aggies possess, a loss from them early in the SEC Tournament could have gone a long way to bolster the Buckeyes' chances.

That didn't happen as Texas A&M beat the Rebels 80-71 in the second round of the tourney, picking up another Q2 win amid a really strong schedule. TAMU has appeared among Lunardi's last four in.

Providence upsets Creighton

Providence was behind Ohio State in most of the major projections entering Thursday but the Friars could be making a run at the bubble after a Q1 win over Creighton in the Big East Tournament. OSU and Providence have comparable résumés in a lot of key areas, and the Friars now hold six Q1 wins.

Marquette gave the Buckeyes some help Thursday night and Ohio State could use more from the Golden Eagles against Providence in the Big East semifinals. The Friars are hanging around as one of Lunardi's first four out and the matrix's next four out.

Virginia hangs on against Boston College

Virginia entered Thursday among the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament per Lunardi, Palm and the Bracket Matrix, and an upset from Boston College could have paved a path for the Buckeyes to surpass the Cavaliers with a deep Big Ten tourney run.

The Eagles led throughout much of the ACC Tournament quarterfinal contest and hit a buzzer-beater to send the game to overtime, but Virginia clung to a 66-60 victory there, bolstering a massive Q2 and overall record advantage over Ohio State.

What helped

Marquette knocks off Villanova

Villanova saw its NET ranking drop in its first Big East Tournament game against now 3-30 DePaul, winning by just one point. A Q1 win over Marquette could have put the Wildcats back in the bubble picture, but the Golden Eagles scratched out a 71-65 overtime win.

It feels as though Ohio State has surpassed Villanova permanently as a result. The Wildcats finish the season 18-15 with three bad Q3 losses, even if they have a much better Q2 record and stronger schedule than the Buckeyes.

Utah falls against Colorado

This was another matchup of bubble teams, but a loss from the Utes feels as though it's effectively eliminated them from selection committee consideration. They have a number of quality wins but not enough to make up for a 19-14 finish.

Utah's last gasp came at the cost of bolstering Colorado's résumé with a Q1 win, but Ohio State might have had a tough time chasing down the Buffaloes and their top-30 NET ranking anyway.

TCU beats Oklahoma

Despite an early exit from the Big 12 Tournament in the second round against TCU, the Sooners are still getting into the NCAA Tournament and won’t have to play in the First Four, per Lunardi, Palm and the matrix. But stacking Oklahoma's qualifications up against Ohio State's, outside of a 5-0 Q2 record and really strong schedule, it might not be so simple to put the Sooners in.

To be determined

St. John's defeats Seton Hall

This was a matchup of proximity bubble teams. Seton Hall's position for the postseason is pretty precarious, as they are currently among the last four in per Lunardi and the first four out per Palm. Ohio State now possesses the same record as the Pirates and a better NET ranking, however.

St. John's has a better NET ranking than the Pirates but a worse Q1 record. Ohio State could be in contention with both teams if it beats Illinois, but Buckeye faithful will have to hope that the Red Storm don't upset No. 2 UConn, especially now that they've moved into Lunardi's last four byes and the Matrix's last four in.

Pitt eliminates Wake Forest

This is yet another game where Ohio State was in contention with both teams to go dancing.

Wake Forest should no longer be an issue, bowing out with an 81-69 loss to Pitt in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. Despite a higher NET ranking, a 1-7 Q1 record shouldn't stand up to Ohio State's four Q1 wins if the Buckeyes topple Illinois.

Pitt, on the other hand, rose to the first four out per Lunardi and in the Matrix, and the Panthers are now in according to Palm. Their Q2 record advantage is an issue for OSU.

Other notable results

• Kansas State's NCAA Tournament hopes were on their dying breaths entering Thursday, and a blowout loss to Iowa State killed any shot the Wildcats had.
• Another long shot at Big Dance at-large qualification came off the board when Cincinnati fell to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament.
• In terms of long-shot bubble teams that won, NC State pulled off a massive upset over No. 11 Duke in the ACC Tournament to pick up a Q1 win. The Wolfpack (20-14, No. 69 in NET) still aren't on the radar of any bracketologists but are also two wins away from an automatic bid.
• Mississippi State could have gotten into hot water with a loss against LSU in the SEC Tournament but the Bulldogs beat the Tigers, 70-60.