Buckeyetology is back thanks to the recent efforts of the 2024-25 Buckeyes.
Last year I ran this piece for exactly three weeks in January, the first edition on Jan. 9 when Ohio State was projected as a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament and the last on Jan. 25 when the Buckeyes fell outside the Big Dance picture after an all-to-familiar January collapse under Chris Holtmann. More losses followed and despite a late-season surge under then-interim head coach Jake Diebler, the Buckeyes settled for the NIT.
One year since that discontinuation, the series is suddenly worth resurrecting. Thoughts of a first-season tourney bid for the Diebler regime were mere pipe dreams 10 days ago, with the Buckeyes standing at 10-8 and preparing to play No. 11 Purdue on the road.
Then Ohio State went and beat the Boilermakers in Mackey Arena, the first time they had fallen there in nearly 700 days. That momentum carried over to a blowout win over Iowa on Tuesday, the two victories Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins for NCAA Tournament purposes.
Not only is there a chance for Ohio State to bounce back from a 1-4 start to January to close 4-4 at Penn State on Thursday, the Buckeyes are right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation. Their conference standing for the Big Ten Tournament – no longer a guarantee as only 15 of the conference's 18 teams make it starting this year – has improved in equal measure.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Projections from a variety of the nation's best bracketologists have Ohio State among the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament as things stand.
| Overall Record | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-4 |
| Road | 2-3 |
| NET Ranking | 29th |
| Q1 Record | 3-6 |
| Q2 Record | 2-2 |
| Strength of Schedule | 14th |
That's true for ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who places the Buckeyes in the first of his last four in slots ahead of Texas, North Carolina and UCF. Bracketmatrix.com has 85 different bracket projections aggregated and Ohio State makes the Big Dance in 71 of them. 59 of those have the Buckeyes as an 11-seed, the last seed line for at-large bids. One of the 14 brackets excluding the Buckeyes is CBS’ Jerry Palm, who has OSU as the first team out of the tourney.
A 12-8 record isn't great on its surface, but the strength of the Buckeyes' schedule boosts the value of that mark. Diebler had the fortitude to set up five non-conference matchups with power conference opponents, and though Ohio State went 2-3 against those teams, it picked up valuable Quadrant 1 wins against Texas and then-No. 4 Kentucky on neutral courts.
The depth of the Big Ten is also bolstering the Buckeyes' schedule strength. Seven other schools in the conference are projected as being in the NCAA Tournament by the bracket matrix. Ohio State gets opportunities at two more Q1 wins in league play this week at Penn State and No. 18 Illinois.
Lastly, the Buckeyes' NET ranking of 29th is the best among its competitors along the bubble, a reflection of its aforementioned schedule strength and its handful of quality wins. Every single Ohio State loss also falls into either Q1 or Q2, Indiana being the worst loss on its résumé with a NET ranking of 68th.
| RNK | TEAM | B1G RECORD | OVR RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MICHIGAN STATE | 9-0 | 18-2 |
| 2 | PURDUE | 8-2 | 16-5 |
| 3 | MICHIGAN | 7-2 | 15-5 |
| 4 | WISCONSIN | 6-3 | 15-4 |
| 5 | MARYLAND | 6-4 | 16-5 |
| 5 | UCLA | 6-4 | 15-6 |
| 5 | ILLINOIS | 6-4 | 14-6 |
| 8 | OREGON | 5-4 | 16-4 |
| 9 | INDIANA | 5-5 | 14-7 |
| 10 | USC | 4-5 | 12-8 |
| 10 | OHIO STATE | 4-5 | 12-8 |
| 12 | IOWA | 4-6 | 13-8 |
| 13 | NORTHWESTERN | 3-6 | 12-8 |
| 13 | RUTGERS | 3-6 | 10-10 |
| 15 | PENN STATE | 3-7 | 13-8 |
| 15 | MINNESOTA | 3-7 | 11-10 |
| 17 | NEBRASKA | 2-7 | 12-8 |
| 18 | WASHINGTON | 1-8 | 10-10 |
Big Ten Outlook
With the Big Ten Tournament format shifting to 15 teams this year, the bottom three teams will be excluded in the conference while the top nine schools receive a first-round bye and the top four receive a double-bye to the tourney's quarterfinals.
The Penn State game not only offers a chance for Ohio State to bring its January record back to .500, it can level out its mark in the Big Ten, too. A victory over the Nittany Lions would bring the Buckeyes back to 5-5 in conference play.
A win at Penn State would put valuable distance between Ohio State and the bottom three spots in the conference, which will be left out of the conference tournament. The Buckeyes' current 4-5 record in the league has them 1.5 games ahead of that placement, with the Nittany Lions and Minnesota tied at 3-7 for third-to-last. Nebraska (2-7) and Washington (1-8) have worse conference marks.
With a strong close to the year, a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament and Ohio State's first NCAA Tournament bid in three seasons are well within reach.
