Not much has changed since the last edition of Buckeyetology when it comes to Ohio State's NCAA Tournament chances or Big Ten standing. That's what a split of road conference games will bring.
The Buckeyes demolished Penn State in its St. John Arena equivalent (Rec Hall) on Thursday, 83-64, but ran out of gas at Illinois on Sunday in an 87-79 loss. Ohio State's overall and conference records added a tick to each column, now sitting at 13-9 and 5-6, respectively.
But road wins are hard to come by, particularly in a Big Ten that is considered very deep by the tools the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to choose its field. Sixteen of the conference's 18 teams – that's 88.9% – are currently in the top 75 for NET ranking, which means playing any of them on the road is considered a Quadrant 1 game for résumé purposes.
As with last week, Ohio State remains on the bubble after its .500 week away from Value City Arena.
"Right now, we have everything to play for," Jake Diebler said on Monday. "Everything is right in front of us. We've positioned ourselves well enough to be playing really meaningful games right now. Every game is important."
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Whereas last week there were still a solid amount of major brackets that had the Buckeyes out of the NCAA Tournament – CBS' Jerry Palm being a notable one – there is unanimous agreement among the top experts that Ohio State is in as things currently stand.
| Overall Record | 13-9 |
| Home | 8-4 |
| Road | 3-4 |
| NET Ranking | 27th |
| Q1 Record | 4-6 |
| Q2 Record | 3-3 |
| Strength of Schedule | 10th |
Out of 87 bracket projections aggregated by The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix, 86 have the Buckeyes dancing, the lone exception being a blogspot called Oak Creek's March Madness – suffice to say not every bracket in the matrix carries as much weight. Many of the major predictors including Palm and ESPN's Joe Lunardi have Ohio State not only in the tourney but evading one of the First Four games that involve the last four teams selected for an at-large bid.
Believe it or not, the Buckeyes' 1-1 result this past week was a boost to their NCAA Tournament chances because both games were Quad 1 contests. Ohio State's NET ranking jumped from 29th to 27th from last week to this one and its strength of schedule is now No. 10 in the country.
The average projection has Ohio State landing as a 10th seed for the Big Dance, which is where Lunardi places the Buckeyes. This week will provide opportunities for the Buckeyes to better their standing.
Ohio State first gets a shot on Thursday to avenge one of its losses from earlier in the season when it plays No. 18 Maryland, who smacked the Buckeyes 83-59 on Dec. 4. Diebler's squad has grown a lot since that game, but the Terrapins offer a chance at another Quad 1 win when they enter Value City Arena.
The Buckeyes then hit the road for another Quad 1 game at Nebraska on Sunday. The Cornhuskers are another team hanging out on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but their 9-2 home record and recent win over the Fighting Illini in Pinnacle Bank Arena gives caution to those that enter.
| RNK | TEAM | B1G RECORD | OVR RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PURDUE | 10-2 | 18-5 |
| 2 | MICHIGAN STATE | 9-2 | 18-4 |
| 3 | MICHIGAN | 8-2 | 16-5 |
| 4 | WISCONSIN | 8-4 | 18-5 |
| 4 | UCLA | 8-4 | 17-6 |
| 6 | MARYLAND | 7-4 | 17-5 |
| 7 | ILLINOIS | 7-5 | 15-7 |
| 8 | OREGON | 5-6 | 16-6 |
| 8 | OHIO STATE | 5-6 | 13-9 |
| 8 | USC | 5-6 | 13-9 |
| 11 | INDIANA | 5-7 | 14-9 |
| 12 | IOWA | 4-7 | 13-9 |
| 12 | NEBRASKA | 4-7 | 14-8 |
| 12 | RUTGERS | 4-7 | 11-11 |
| 15 | NORTHWESTERN | 4-8 | 13-10 |
| 15 | MINNESOTA | 4-8 | 12-11 |
| 17 | PENN STATE | 3-9 | 13-10 |
| 18 | WASHINGTON | 2-8 | 11-10 |
Big Ten Outlook
Ohio State is now tied for eighth in the Big Ten with Oregon and USC after equalizing its conference record with a three-game winning streak only to dip back below .500 in league play with its loss to Illinois.
Fears of missing the Big Ten Tournament are fading with each week. The bottom three squads in the conference miss the 15-team bracket this year, and the Buckeyes are now 1.5 games ahead of Northwestern and Minnesota, which are tied for 15th with a 4-8 record in conference play. Penn State (3-9) and Washington (2-8) are behind them.
The top nine teams in the Big Ten tourney receive a bye through the first round and Ohio State is right along that seed line. A double-bye, which goes to the top four teams, is further out of reach as the Buckeyes are 2.5 games behind Wisconsin and UCLA in fourth place. Still, it's doable, especially as OSU has a much easier close to its conference schedule than it opened.
Ohio State plays two of its final nine games against Nebraska and one each against Northwestern and Washington, each of which is below the Buckeyes in the Big Ten standings. After Maryland, OSU only has one ranked opponent left on its schedule, a home tilt with No. 24 Michigan.
