A rivalry loss is always going to leave raw feelings in Columbus. That will never change and should never change.
But even as Ohio State fell to No. 12 Michigan in Value City Arena on Sunday, the Buckeyes are still in position to make the NCAA Tournament. A win in that one-score game would have put them on the brink of securing a Big Dance bid, but even Wolverine coach Dusty May is joining the experts in placing OSU among the field of 68.
"I think Ohio State is, without a doubt, an NCAA Tournament team," May said after Sunday's contest. "It's two heavyweights battling it out, going hit-for-hit, round-for-round."
For a third consecutive edition of Buckeyetology, the Buckeyes are holding steady for an invitation to the tourney without having to play a First Four game. But it will require Ohio State to finish the regular season strong.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Contrary to the majority opinion of Eleven Warriors readers, 96 of the 97 bracket projections aggregated by The Bracket Matrix project Ohio State to make the NCAA Tournament. It averages a No. 9 seed in those predictions.
| Overall Record | 15-11 |
| Home | 11-4 |
| Road | 3-5 |
| NET Ranking | 28th |
| Q1 Record | 4-8 |
| Q2 Record | 3-3 |
| Strength of Schedule | 10th |
Most of the top bracketologists don't even have the Buckeyes among their "last four in" lists. ESPN's Joe Lunardi doesn't have them there or even in his "last four byes" for the First Four, neither does CBS' Jerry Palm or FOX's Mike DeCourcy.
That underscores what has been Ohio State's two biggest attributes in building its NCAA Tournament standing all season: Its strength of schedule and avoidance of bad losses. Not that Pitt's comeback or the home loss to Indiana were good results for the Buckeyes, but thus far, they haven't lost to a Quad 3 or Quad 4 team. That weighs heavily with the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
Add that in with Ohio State playing the 10th-toughest slate of teams in the country and the Buckeyes' No. 28 NET ranking, and that’s why they’re a projected nine-seed for the tourney despite a 15-11 overall record. But there's work left to do for the Scarlet and Gray.
It starts Thursday with Northwestern. Despite a 13-13 record and 17th-place standing in the Big Ten, the Wildcats have a NET ranking of 62nd, so if Ohio State defends its home floor it will improve its Quad 2 record to 4-3 on the season. Then the Buckeyes head out west.
Jake Diebler and crew have two opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins in Los Angeles, facing UCLA on Sunday and USC on Wednesday. The Bruins received 56 votes in the AP Poll and are tied for fourth in the Big Ten, holding a NET ranking of 23rd. The Trojans are 11th in the conference and 66th in the NET rankings, though their record (14-11) is comparable to Ohio State's.
A win in either of those road games combined with a victory over Northwestern on Thursday puts the Buckeyes in a spot where winning either of their final two games – home vs. Nebraska and at Indiana – is probably enough for an NCAA Tournament bid. Plus the Big Ten Tournament will be another chance to build Ohio State's résumé.
| RNK | TEAM | B1G RECORD | OVR RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MICHIGAN | 12-2 | 20-5 |
| 2 | MICHIGAN STATE | 12-3 | 21-5 |
| 3 | WISCONSIN | 11-4 | 21-5 |
| 4 | PURDUE | 11-5 | 19-8 |
| 5 | MARYLAND | 10-5 | 20-6 |
| 6 | UCLA | 10-6 | 19-8 |
| 7 | ILLINOIS | 9-8 | 17-10 |
| 8 | NEBRASKA | 7-8 | 17-9 |
| 8 | OREGON | 7-8 | 18-8 |
| 8 | OHIO STATE | 7-8 | 15-11 |
| 11 | USC | 6-8 | 14-11 |
| 11 | MINNESOTA | 6-8 | 14-11 |
| 13 | INDIANA | 6-9 | 15-11 |
| 14 | IOWA | 5-9 | 14-11 |
| 15 | RUTGERS | 5-10 | 12-14 |
| 16 | WASHINGTON | 4-10 | 13-12 |
| 17 | NORTHWESTERN | 4-11 | 13-13 |
| 18 | PENN STATE | 3-12 | 13-13 |
Big Ten Outlook
While Ohio State still has a bridge to cross to make the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Big Ten Tournament will require a mere step up the street.
With a 2.5-game lead over 16th-place Washington, who the Buckeyes beat head-to-head, even one more regular-season triumph should be enough to make the 15-team conference tourney for Ohio State. The Scarlet and Gray are tied for eighth in the conference with Nebraska and Oregon.
That is still a precarious place to be as the top nine squads in the league receive a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament. As it stands, the Buckeyes would lose the three-team tiebreaker between themselves, the Cornhuskers and the Ducks to be the 10th seed and play in the first round. That could add stakes to Ohio State's home tilt with Nebraska on March 4.
There is no realistic shot at a double bye for the Buckeyes as they are 3.5 games back of Purdue and UCLA, which are tied for fourth place along the double-bye line.
