Ahh, the day is finally here.
Except it's not really that exciting if you're an Ohio State fan.
Most enthusiasm for today's National Signing Day has been zapped by the fact that the Buckeyes almost entirely wrapped up their 2021 recruiting class during the early signing period in December. They signed all 21 of their commits, and there are only two uncommitted and unsigned players left on the board for Ohio State to potentially land.
But that's OK, though. There are still some intriguing happenings that will emerge from the day's semi-action, and we take a look at five such storylines:
Where will Raesjon Davis go?
Heading into his visit to Columbus more than two weeks ago, I felt great about Ohio State's prospects of landing four-star Mater Dei (California) linebacker Raesjon Davis. Even coming out of the visit I thought the Buckeyes were primed to take the lead and ultimately sign him today.
Davis and his family already had a great relationship with Al Washington, and I felt good about his visit to Columbus sealing the deal there.
“We don’t even talk about football,” Davis told Eleven Warriors ahead of his visit. “We’re just talking about regular life things. I know that he’s out there with his family right now in Florida just enjoying some family time. We really don’t talk about football too much, it’s more like a family. That’s really what it is; that’s why I love him so much. Whenever I’m thinking about where I wanna go to, I’m always keeping Ohio State in my mind.
“I think it’s the personality because my dad doesn’t really like a lot of coaches like that. So he really likes him a lot.”
Raesjon Davis is likely to sign with USC when he announces his decision today. (Ken Ruinard/USA Today)
But then there were crickets. No real groundswell of momentum emulating that the Buckeyes were going to be the pick.
And as we stand here today, I have zero confidence that Davis will be signing with Ohio State. My pick, like nearly everyone else's, is for Davis to stay in Southern California by signing with USC. He will give the Trojans the nation's No. 48 overall player and No. 4 outside linebacker to pair with fellow top-50 overall prospect and fellow Californian Korey Foreman, the country's No. 1 overall player.
Waiting Game for Tuimoloau
When Ryan Day was asked on Jan. 22 – not ironically the day that Davis and his family flew into Columbus – how much room is left in the Buckeyes' 2021 class, he gave what felt like a cryptic answer at the time.
“We really don’t have much,” Day said. “We’re pretty full right now. Pretty healthy roster. That can always change. There might be one spot available. But other than that, we’re pretty full. But we’ll keep evaluating, keep looking at it. We’re certainly continually recruiting some guys here toward the next signing day. And we probably would have a spot for one guy.”
We weren't entirely sure if Day's answer was supposed to be a message to Davis to lock his name into the class, or perhaps it was a hidden way to say that Davis was not going to wind up with Ohio State.
Either way, at 11:30 a.m. – when Davis announces his decision – we're likely going to find out that the “one guy” Day was referring to is Washington five-star defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau.
The No. 3 overall player in the country out of Eastside Catholic High School, Tuimoloau's decision will not be coming today, and it won't be coming any time over the next month.
Tuimoloau has already said that his decision will not be coming until at least April, which means today will not be the hallmark day that gives the Buckeyes half of the players ranked in the top 10 overall in the 2021 recruiting rankings.
That day could be coming this spring, however, once visits open back up (if visits open back up, we should cautiously say) and he's allowed to get to Ohio State, Alabama and the trio of Pac-12 schools in his final five.
And speaking of one of those Pac-12 programs, how incredible would it be if USC stunned everybody by landing Tuimoloau to give the Trojans a pair of five-star defensive ends ranked in the top three overall (Tuimoloau, Foreman) and the No. 4 OLB (Davis)? I'm sure that's exactly what Ohio State fans wanted to hear from me today.
Buckeyes have no shot at recruiting crown...
Speaking of things Ohio State fans definitely wanted to hear today, the Buckeyes have no shot at finally winning their first-ever recruiting crown.
Approximately two decades ago in March-April of 2020, it felt like anybody who was tremendous at football in the 2021 recruiting class was going to bang out a graphic on Instagram and Twitter that said "1,000 percent committed to THE Ohio State University.”
That's the type of momentum the program had. (You should see the number of commit pieces yours truly prepared back then just in case more news dropped.)
And then Alabama came crashing in and spoiled the Buckeyes' party. Once five-star running back Camar Wheaton, the No. 2 running back in America, signs with Alabama it will officially give the Crimson Tide the best recruiting class of all-time (325.95 points), passing Florida's 2010 class (324.62), and if top-50 safety Terrion Arnold signs with the Tide they will finish with 327.91 points.
...and they don’t care
As a caveat to the following, I care about who wins the recruiting crown. We, at Eleven Warriors, care. It’s fun to talk about even if there's only a few points separating the two programs and even if one team (Ohio State with 21 signees) brought in significantly less signees (Alabama with 27 likely signees) than the other.
So we're going to write about and talk about rankings and recruiting titles until the end of time because it's great to debate and talk about.
You know who doesn't give a hoot (because this is a family friendly website) about who wins the recruiting crown? Ryan Day and Mark Pantoni.
Day, at his early signing period presser, on whether having the No. 1 class in the country is important to him: “It’s the best class in the country for Ohio State. What’s the best class in the country for another school? That’s not the same for us. One of the things you know if you come here is it’s going to be hard. You’re going to have to compete to get on the field. You have to compete to play for a national championship. That’s what we’re looking for here.”
Pantoni: “I heard what Ryan said, and I honestly agree with him 100 percent. It’s not a big deal. We’ve had classes in the past that were four or five and probably had more NFL draft picks in the top two rounds than some of these other classes, so to me, the way I grade recruiting classes is how they end up. NFL being a big part, but also key contributors, starters as well, so we’ll look forward here in three or four years and see, that’s how we’ll grade it.”
Shot at best per-player average
Now, with all of that being said, Ohio State still has a shot at landing its best class of all-time when it comes to average player rating.
The famed 2017 class finished with a 94.59 average player rating, which is the best in the modern recruiting era. Whatever Alabama finishes with in this cycle (projected at 95.00 if Arnold signs) will wind up being the best ever. But Ohio State has a shot at getting the No. 2 all-time class in that regard.
If Tuimoloau signs with the Buckeyes, they will finish with a per-player average of 94.77 (with a total of 316.01 points). Would still be pretty incredible.
