When Ohio State and Alabama meet in the Sugar Bowl, many expect a close game that could go down to the wire. If that happens, the difference between a shot at a national championship and the end of the season.
So who is feeling better about their chances if it comes down to a three-point attempt—Urban Meyer or Nick Saban?
Saban has used two kickers this season and both are hitting field goals at about the same percentage. Sophomores Gunnar Raborn and Adam Griffith have played, with Griffith getting the lion’s share of the scoring attempts despite dealing with undisclosed injury issues this season.
Griffith is hitting just 63.2% of his field goals, going 12/19 this season. His best game was a 4/4 performance in the season opener against West Virginia. Raborn is 2/3, for 66.7% and had an extra point blocked in the Iron Bowl. As a team, Alabama’s numbers drop to 7/12 (58.3%) away from home. And the Tide hit seven of its first eight attempts this season, meaning Bama kickers are just 7/14 since the start of October.
Saban’s Crimson Tide hasn’t had many weaknesses through the years, but a lack of a trustworthy kicking game has been a thorn in his side. That gets magnified against good competition. Alabama is 4/9 (44.4%) against ranked opponents and 9/16 (56.3%) against Power 5 teams.
Normally this would be an advantage for Ohio State, which has enjoyed an outstanding kicking game dating back to Mike Nugent’s freshman year. But this year has been a bit of a struggle for consistency.
Behind freshman Sean Nuernberger, the Buckeyes are just 11/18 on field goals this season, for a paltry 61.1%. The freshman has shown the ability to connect from deep but is almost as likely to leave a short one wide, without hooking back inside the uprights. Away from the Horseshoe, Nuernberger is just 6/10 (60%).
He had a short field goal try blocked in the Big Ten Championship Game, but that may have had as much to do with rushing the kicking team out onto the field as with Das Boot himself.
If there’s such a thing as a “good miss,” Nuernberger may have booted one at Michigan State. His 47-yard try on a cool night in East Lansing was on line, but came up just a couple of feet short. With his leg, he won’t leave many short and it least it was accurate. Hopefully it provided a learning experience.
Nuernberger hit 7/10 (70%) against FBS teams with winning records, compared to 4/8 (50%) against FBS non-winning teams. But that doesn’t mean he makes more kicks against better competition, because he’s 1/3 (33.3%) against ranked opponents and 6/13 (46.2%) against Power 5 teams.
The more troubling stat is that he has hit just two of his last five attempts, dating back to Nov. 8 in East Lansing, after starting 5/7 (71.4%) in August and September. His best games were a trio of 2/2 efforts against Navy, Cincinnati and Illinois.
What if the game comes down to a long-range try? Does either team have an advantage?
Griffith is 4/8 beyond 40 yards, keeping in mind he was 3/3 in the first game against the Mountaineers and 1/5 since. He’s 0/1 outside of 50. Nuernberger is 5/10 beyond 40 and hasn’t tried one from 50+ yet. It’s hard to imagine either team having an edge in this situation. Both coaches would rather go for it or punt than try a long field goal, but that will be impossible with a berth in the National Championship Game on the line and just seconds remaining.
It would seem that neither Alabama nor Ohio State has a decided advantage in the kicking game. Both teams’ kickers have trended roughly the same this season. With what’s happened late in games to Alabama, though, it’s probably Meyer who feels a little more comfortable about trying a last-minute winning kick.
We may get the chance to find out on Jan. 1.
