Ohio State played its worst game of the season in a 17-14 loss to Michigan State Saturday, snapping the team's 23-game winning streak. For a lot of fans, this was the bottom that was expected for a team that struggled in games it wasn't supposed to this year, rarely showing why it deserved to enter the season as the first unanimous No. 1 team in AP Poll history.
Five first downs. 132 total yards. The Heisman contender at running back openly questioning the team's play calling after he touched the ball a mere two times in the second half. Yep, things are pretty awful right now.
Ohio State is a team with exposed problems with execution and scheme – and perhaps worse – locker room disharmony. Beyond Ezekiel Elliott's comments, you had three players – Elliott, defensive end Joey Bosa and quarterback Cardale Jones – publicly declare their intentions to enter the NFL draft before the end of the regular season.
So, it's hard to find any reason to be optimistic right now, but I'm going to try to outline a plan that sees Ohio State wedge its way back into the Big Ten Championship and perhaps something even bigger.
To reach the championship game in Indianapolis, Ohio State must first take care of business against Michigan Saturday in Ann Arbor. It won't be easy. The Buckeyes were favored by double digits over the Wolverines when early lines for big games were released in the late summer. Last week, they were favored by 6½. Today, that line is Ohio State -2½, though there are a now a couple of offshore outlets offering lines with Michigan as the favorite.
Jim Harbaugh has his team playing inspired ball and they get a wounded and staggered Ohio State team at home to cap off his first season. They'll be ready.
Should Ohio State beat Michigan – which again, is no sure bet right now – then the Buckeyes would then have to hope Christian Hackenberg and Penn State can get it done on the road against Michigan State. The game kicks off immediately after the Ohio State–Michigan game, so Ohio State fans will be able to tune in, assuming the Buckeyes top the Wolverines and it's worth watching.
| Rank | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLEMSON | 11-0 |
| 2 | ALABAMA | 10-1 |
| 3 | IOWA | 11-0 |
| 4 | MICHIGAN STATE | 10-1 |
| 5 | NOTRE DAME | 10-1 |
| 6 | OKLAHOMA | 10-1 |
| 7 | BAYLOR | 9-1 |
| 8 | OHIO STATE | 10-1 |
| 9 | FLORIDA | 10-1 |
| 10 | STANFORD | 9-2 |
I don't know about you guys, but it's hard for me to see a way in which this 7-4 Penn State team gets a win on the road against a Michigan State defense that just made Ohio State look silly. The Nittany Lions haven't beaten the Spartans since 2009 – to be fair, they took a few years off from playing recently – and that Spartan defensive line should feast on Hackenberg.
Still, games aren't played on paper and Michigan State is facing a classic letdown affair. Mark Dantonio said he enjoyed it when his team was the hunter, rather than the hunted following the Ohio State game, and they will squarely be the hunted Saturday in East Lansing. And if Penn State pulls the shocker, the Buckeyes are Indy-bound.
So, assuming Ohio State can beat a hungry Michigan team and Penn State pulls the upset on the road against Sparty – a big if – the Buckeyes, who find themselves 8th in both major polls today and should still be a top-10 team in the next batch of playoff rankings, would have a top-15 win in hand and should jump the Spartans, who will have two losses, in the playoff rankings released after next Saturday's games. They will be a top seven (or better) team heading into the Big Ten Championship to face what should be a top-three (or better) Iowa team, assuming Iowa survives Nebraska Saturday.
If Urban Meyer's team can win that game in Indianapolis, things will get really interesting, because the Buckeyes would then be a fringe top-four team and that's assuming no other upsets take place in regular season or conference championship games in other leagues.
No. 1 Clemson must still face a dangerous 10-1 North Carolina in the ACC Championship. No. 2 Alabama still has the Iron Bowl and a good Florida team in the SEC Championship. The Tide should absolutely throttle Auburn, but stranger things have happened in rivalry games. They'll be heavy favorites against the Gators, too, but this is not your father, Will Muschamp's Florida Gators.
While not plausible or likely, there's certainly a chance Ohio State can find itself back in the College Football Playoff. You may have better odds of receiving a walk-on scholarship to play football for Urban Meyer, but the chance exists, however slim.
Now, whether Ohio State is even good enough to play in the College Football Playoff should they sneak in, is another question altogether.
