Cold Snap

They said it would freeze up just as soon as Midwest fireplaces reawakened from their summer slumber.

They said the winning strategy for Gainesville would fall prey to every breathless cold weather football superlative ever regurgitated by Big Ten football enthusiasts, going back to the days when Jesus Christ first created the T-Formation in an Illinois cornfield during a blizzard. They were wrong. Well, sort of.

Five seasons later Ohio State has dropped exactly one game in cold weather under Meyer - in 2015, at home, against Michigan State. However, the Buckeyes' collective shrinkage that evening was far more metaphorical than a consequence of chilly temps.

The other five losses - against 61 (!) wins - either took place indoors or in temperate conditions, so it's not so much cold weather that's bitten the Buckeyes or Meyer's philosophy as it has been cold weather months: Ohio State is a historically gaudy 57-3 (.950) through November in the Urban Era, but it's only 4-3 (.571) in December and January.

And three of those four winter wins took place within one season - you probably remember them. That leaves just a single postseason W over the other four years. You are correct, professor - the competition does get stiffer in the postseason and it's supposed to be harder to win. That's still a significant drop-off from the September-November cadence, and more importantly, Meyer didn't return to coaching just to celebrate regular season excellence.

It's fascinating to note just how consistent Ohio State has been in each month of the set schedule before giving way to results that have been erratic during the Trophy Collection Season. Take a look:

AUGUST

RECORD: 1-0

BEST WIN: It's a category of one. Ohio State beat Navy 34-17 in Baltimore (2014). 

HOME: 0-0 | ROAD: 0-0 | NEUTRAL: 1-0

INSIDE THE TREND:

• Whenever Ohio State plays an August game under Meyer it ends up winning the national title.
• The Buckeyes will put their perfect August record on the line against Indiana this season.
• Ohio State's 34-point August average (I did that math in my head) is weak relative to what happens next.

September

RECORD: 19-1

BEST WIN: Ohio State (3) 45, Oklahoma (14) 24 (2016)  | WORST LOSS: The only one.

Do you remember | the 7th night of September 

HOME: 15-1 | ROAD: 4-0 

AVERAGE SCORE: 43-16 Ohio State

INSIDE THE TREND:

• The Buckeyes have won imposing September roadies in each of the past two seasons, leaving Norman and Blacksburg victorious. That sole loss to the Hokies was an aberration, with J.T. Barrett starting his first home game. Their only road trip this September is at Rutgers. Next year they visit TCU in Texas.
• Lowest offensive output in September? That 17-16 win in East Lansing in 2012 that served as the fulcrum for Meyer's first team's undefeated season. It was the same score on the same field in 2016, only that time it was an ominous signal of the offense's sputtering demise.
• Ohio State, even while struggling, has been practically untouchable in the season's first full month.

October

RECORD: 18-1

BEST WIN: Ohio State (13) 31, Penn State 24 (2OT) (2014) | WORST LOSS: The only one.

This close to being perfect in five straight Octobers.

HOME: 10-0 | ROAD: 8-1 

AVERAGE SCORE: 42-22 Ohio State

INSIDE THE TREND:

• You know what's more impressive than one loss in September over five seasons? One loss in October over five seasons.
• Toughest October opponent not named Penn State? Surprise - it's Indiana. #chaosteam
• Ohio State is 3-0 in October against ranked teams. In related news, Ohio State has only faced three ranked teams in October in five seasons. Alabama, if you're wondering, has faced eight in that span.

November

RECORD: 19-1

BEST WIN: 5-0 in The Game. Other than those, this one. | WORST LOSS: The only one.

Perfect on the road in November x 5.

HOME: 9-1 | ROAD: 10-0 

AVERAGE SCORE: 41-19 Ohio State

INSIDE THE TREND:

• Offensive output by month: 43, 42, 41. That is terrifying consistency - if you consider the stakes, durability and the opponents, Meyer's Buckeyes improve with each month.
• On average, score three touchdowns = win the game. In the only one it lost, Ohio State scored 27 points below its five-year November average.
• Perfect on the road in November over five seasons includes two trips to Ann Arbor, two to East Lansing and one to Madison. It's nothing short of immaculate.

December

RECORD: 1-2, all neutral site

BEST WIN: The only one. | WORST LOSS: Finally, a choice. Let's choose not to choose.

Urban's only taken one bath in Indianapolis.

AVERAGE SCORE: 28-22 Ohio State

INSIDE THE TREND:

• Vaporizing Wisconsin for the 2014 Big Ten title with a first-time starter at quarterback is a gilded game in Ohio State football history. It also does a funny thing to the average score in a 1-2 record that includes a 0-31 pasting.
• The loss to Michigan State in the 2013 Big Ten championship was part of the catalyst that resulted in Chris Ash coming to address the defense, which has been stellar ever since.
• The loss to Clemson last season was part of the catalyst the resulted in a complete overhaul of the offensive coaching personnel. Here's to parallels materializing.
• It may appear like the Buckeyes are holding serve defensively to midseason form here, but...there's that shutout in there. The performance suddenly goes all over the place coming off of a run-up that is as consistent as you'll see anywhere.
• December has proven to be transformational under Meyer, regardless of game outcome. The results here have been treated as final exams for staff retention.

January

RECORD: 3-1, all neutral site

BEST WIN: Q: How do you pick a favorite child? A: You don't.| WORST LOSS: The only one.

The Chase, nearly complete.

AVERAGE SCORE: 41-31 Ohio State

INSIDE THE TREND:

• Ohio State lost to Clemson by five points with Noah Spence abruptly suspended, Bradley Roby out injured and a sketchy back seven trying to deal with Martavis Bryant, Mike Williams, and Sammy Watkins. Braxton Miller's QB career-ending arm injury occurred on the game's fifth play. I'm not saying...(throat clear)...I'm just saying.
• Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame. It's shiny and pretty and every reason Meyer isn't still at ESPN. Those stages and Michigan are the games that brought him home.
• The Buckeyes allowed healthy yardage (576, 407, 465, 405 respectively) in their January games but only held Oregon in check - which, let's not diminish it - had the Heisman Trophy winner and #2 overall pick in the NFL Draft at QB.

The burden of having Meyer coaching your team is that the losses are so rare they practically define the victor's season.

Half of his losses have come in the postseason, and they've produced the continuous improvement and urgency for overcoming those obstacles to a championship. There is one consistency in those December-January shortcomings: They don't come in streaks. Ohio State hasn't dropped postseason games in consecutive years under Meyer, and coming off that 31-0 embarrassment to the eventual national champions, it's hard to be anything but optimistic about the 2017 season.

They said Meyer would win multiple championships in Columbus. They may still be right.