The Drought is Over
Caleb Downs scores Ohio State’s first punt return touchdown since 2014.
Saturday’s game against UNLV should serve as both a return to normalcy and a tune-up for conference play for the Ohio State football team.
Ohio State hasn’t had a game that could be considered a tune-up in its first three weeks of the season. The Buckeyes opened the season with a Big Ten game when they played Indiana on the road. They ended up being overmatched in their second game against Oklahoma. They had a clear talent advantage over Army last week, but that game required unusual preparation – preparation that might not help the Buckeyes in their preparation for any other team – because of Army’s triple option offense.
This week, even though the Buckeyes are already three games deep into the season, could be the closest thing they have to a preseason game.
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| UNLV REBELS |
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1-1 ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, SEPT. 23 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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BTN BTN2Go |
Ohio State shouldn’t be in any jeopardy of losing Saturday’s game. The Rebels lost their season opener to Howard – a Football Championship Subdivision team that has lost its two subsequent games to Kent State and Richmond – and are 40-point underdogs entering the game, according to Vegas Insider.
That said, the Buckeyes have areas in which they need to improve in all three phases of the game before getting into the heart of their Big Ten schedule.
Ohio State’s offense took a step in the right direction against Army, with a game plan built around run-pass options that will likely remain an offensive staple for the Buckeyes, but they are still seeking continued growth, particularly in the passing game. The Buckeye defense is looking to prove itself in the passing game, too, after giving up more than 800 passing yards in its first two games before being largely untested in the passing game by Army's run-heavy offense. The Buckeyes are also looking for improved play on special teams, particularly from their kickoff unit, which has performed below expectations this season.
Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer acknowledged on Wednesday that "a big part of getting ready for this game" would be working on improving the fundamental areas that have been weaknesses for his team so far this season.
"The continual growth of the pass defense, the execution of the pass game, playing with rhythm and tempo, those are all areas that that’s part of our game plan," Meyer said.
Like a preseason game, Saturday’s game could also be an opportunity – the first opportunity this season – for the Buckeyes to clear their bench and give some of their backups and younger players extended playing time, if Ohio State can start the game strong and execute the way it must to establish a big lead.
UNLV, though, isn’t going to concede defeat. While the bookmakers in Vegas aren’t giving the Rebels much of a chance, the team making the trip from Vegas wants to make a statement in Ohio Stadium.
"I don’t have to talk my guys into realizing that this is a football game and they have an opportunity to go win a football game," said UNLV coach Tony Sanchez. "We all know the odds are stacked against us. That’s pretty evident. But that’s just the odds. What do the odds mean? They don’t mean anything. We’re going to have to make some great plays. We’re going to have to take advantage of some opportunities, and probably more of them than we normally would in a football game, but at the end of the day … we’re going to go out there and put our best foot forward."
UNLV BREAKDOWN
UNLV’s results this season aren’t impressive on paper. The Rebels’ loss to Howard, in which they were a 45-point favorite at home, was the biggest point-spread upset in college football history. The Rebels bounced back in their only other game so far this season against Idaho, winning 44-16 on the road, but the Vandals – who are one season away from moving down to the Football Championship Subdivision – are nowhere near the caliber of Ohio State.
What is impressive on paper is UNLV’s offensive production. Among teams who have played more than one game this season, the Rebels rank eighth in the FBS with an average of 557 total yards per game, and tied for 22nd in the FBS with an average of 42 points scored per game.
Those statistics could easily be discounted going into a game against Ohio State considering the competition those statistics were accumulated against, but Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano says they shouldn’t be.
"I know they played Howard and Idaho, and I don’t know how they are on defense, but any time you’re (eighth) in anything out of 130 teams, you’re doing something really well," Schiano said.
Ohio State has identified "three legit threats," in the words of Buckeye safety Erick Smith, on UNLV’s offense in quarterback Armani Rogers, running back Lexington Thomas and wide receiver Devonte Boyd who have the potential to cause problems for the home team’s defense.
Rogers, a 6-foot-5, 225-pound redshirt freshman, offers an impressive combination of size and athleticism that makes him tough to tackle. He has passed for 413 yards and two touchdowns and has rushed for 168 yards and one touchdown in his first two career starts.
Thomas isn’t likely to run any Buckeye defenders over at only 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, but he is a threat to make defenders miss with his shiftiness and speed. He already has 341 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 38 carries this season.
Boyd, one of the most productive wide receivers in UNLV history, has six receptions for 208 yards and two touchdowns this season, including a school record-long 94-yard receiving touchdown against Idaho.
"They have a very talented quarterback, they have a receiver who’s really a good player and they have a tailback who’s small but man, is he electric," Schiano said. "So they have weapons."
Running back Lexington Thomas gives UNLV a dynamic weapon in the ground game. Joshua Dahl – USA TODAY Sports
UNLV also has an experienced offensive line, including three returning starters from last year, that has performed well so far this season, opening holes in the run game while allowing only one sack in two games.
"Those guys are used to doing what they’re doing, so they’re very good at it," said Ohio State defensive tackle Tracy Sprinkle.
UNLV’s offense has been run-heavy in the Rebels’ first two games, with 96 rushing attempts compared to just 37 passing attempts, and ranks fourth in the FBS with 350.5 rushing yards per game. The Rebels could look to make more plays in the passing game, however, against an Ohio State defense that has been strong against the run but shaky against the pass.
"We know we’ve been a pretty successful run football team, and that’s who we are and the way we’ve kind of built ourselves, but we’ve got a talented receiving corps and if you’re going to have an opportunity in a game like this, you’re going to have to stretch the field," Sanchez said. "We’re going to have to run some to win the football game, there’s no doubt about that, but we definitely have got to take advantage of some of those talented receivers we have and we’re going to have to put them in some one-on-one situations and give our guys the ability to make some plays."
UNLV’s offense appears to capable of challenging Ohio State or at least making a couple big plays. The question for the Rebels, however, is whether their defense will be able to make any stops.
Giving up 43 points and 449 yards to Howard was a bad start for the UNLV defense. Holding Idaho to 16 points on 384 yards didn’t make the Rebels defense look all that much better, considering that the Vandals rank 88th in the FBS in total offense and tied for 97th in scoring offense, but Sanchez said the Rebels did do "a much better job tackling from Week 1 to Week 2."
"The improvement we saw in tackling has to be there in order for us to have a chance," Sanchez said. "We have to do a really good job of swarming, getting to the football."
Even Meyer acknowledged this week that the Rebels have struggled defensively, and their personnel is better on offense, but he has been impressed by UNLV senior defensive tackles Mike Hughes Jr. and Jason Fao, who he believes will give his interior offensive line a real challenge on the line of scrimmage.
"You have two NFL-type bodies inside, and they’re their best (defensive) players," Meyer said. "We hope to, and we’re going to try to get in space, because we feel that we have an athletic advantage once you get guys like (Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins), etc. in space."
BUCKEYE BREAKDOWN
Ohio State doesn’t feel that it has played up to its potential on either side of the ball so far this season.
The Buckeyes hope this will be the week that they start to do so.
Offensively, quarterback J.T. Barrett and his receivers believe they were able to build better rhythm in the passing game against Army last week that they had in the first two games of the season. Dobbins, who has rushed for more than 170 yards in two of Ohio State’s first three games, will try to keep the excellent start to his Buckeyes career going against the Rebels. The Buckeyes would like to get 2016 starting running back Mike Weber more involved in the offense this week, too, but Meyer says Weber is still not fully recovered from the hamstring injury he has been battling for the past two months.
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| OFFENSE | ||||
| 34.3 | 47th | POINTS FOR | 42.0 | 22nd |
| 243.0 | 19th | RUSHING OFFENSE | 350.5 | 4th |
| 267.7 | 43rd | PASSING OFFENSE | 206.5 | 80th |
| 510.7 | 17th | TOTAL OFFENSE | 557.0 | 8th |
| .452 | 40th | 3rd DOWNS | .391 | 78th |
| .938 | 22nd | RED ZONE | .909 | 37th |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| 19.7 | 41st | POINTS ALLOWED | 29.5 | 89th |
| 126.7 | 51st | RUSH DEFENSE | 216.0 | 113th |
| 275.0 | 101st | PASS DEFENSE | 200.5 | 50th |
| 140.63 | 93rd | PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE | 122.1 | 63rd |
| 401.7 | 77th | TOTAL DEFENSE | 416.5 | 90th |
| .370 | 63rd | 3rd DOWNS | .429 | 92nd |
| .800 | 50th | RED ZONE | .778 | 46th |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||
| 2.3 | 102nd | PUNT RETURN | 9.3 | 45th |
| 36.5 | 5th | KICKOFF RETURN | 12.6 | 123rd |
| 42.5 | 22nd | NET PUNTING | 35.0 | 100th |
| MISCELLANEOUS | ||||
| + 1.7 | 7th | TURNOVER MARGIN | - 1.0 | 102nd |
| 6.3 | 70th | PENALTIES | 9.0 | 109th |
| 11 | EDGE | 7 | ||
The Buckeyes’ running game has been strong and should continue to be against UNLV, which has allowed 216 rushing yards per game so far this season. Barrett and the passing offense still have a lot to prove. The Buckeyes have been working to improve against zone coverage, which has given them some problems early this season, but they also believe they could see more press-man coverage this week, which would test Barrett and his receivers in a different way.
"This may be the first week we get a little press," said Ohio State wide receiver Terry McLaurin. "We’re going to be ready for that ... we practice that a lot in practice. So we’re just being accountable for everything, trying to build on what we already did and just be ready for our shots so we can take them."
Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson said the Buckeyes prepared for Army to "blitz every play from all angles," expecting their opponent to play aggressive. Wilson’s not sure if UNLV will take the same strategy this week, but he wants his offense to be in a position to make plays against whatever the Rebels might throw at them.
"They got nothing to lose, so to me, it’s kind of like last week," Wilson said. "Maybe these guys don’t blitz, but we’re going to be ready to adjust. We’ll try to keep our direction moving forward, build on it and we need to be ready to adjust and adapt."
Defensively, Ohio State linebacker Jerome Baker said the Buckeyes want to prove they can play "suffocating pass defense" – something they did not do in their first two games against Indiana and Oklahoma, after which they ranked dead last in the FBS in passing yards allowed. The Buckeyes’ passing defense numbers don’t look so bad anymore after they allowed only 19 passing yards last week, but that came against an Army team that entered last Saturday’s game with only 17 passing yards in two games.
This week really is an opportunity for Ohio State to step up and show its passing defense has improved. Considering UNLV’s performance running the ball in its first two games, it’s also an opportunity for Ohio State’s rushing defense to make a statement heading into conference play.
The Buckeyes are confident they’ll be able to do both.
"I think we’ll be able to win one-on-ones all game," said Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa. "I think we’ll shut them out."
Ohio State could be without one of its defensive leaders this week in starting middle linebacker Chris Worley, who is questionable for Saturday’s game due to a sprained foot. But fellow starting linebacker Baker is looking to improve his play, while Tuf Borland could be in line for his first career start at middle linebacker after a 12-tackle performance that earned him defensive player of the game honors against Army.
Although the No. 10-ranked Buckeyes haven’t necessarily played up to expectations yet this season, they still look like the vastly superior team and have reason to be confident entering this game.
“I think we’ll shut them out.”– Nick Bosa
Sanchez believes his players are good enough to compete with the Buckeyes, but says that what stands out about the Buckeyes in comparison to his team is their depth of talent, especially on the defensive line, and their size, especially on the offensive line.
"They’re extremely big and physical, especially up front, on both sides of the ball," Sanchez said. "And they’ve got a very, very talented roster. I’m sure there’s quite a few guys with (NFL) draft grades on their roster."
HOW IT PLAYS OUT
Although winning a football game is never a foregone conclusion, the outcome of this game really shouldn’t ever be in doubt if Ohio State plays up to its ability or even anywhere close.
The bigger question entering this game is whether Ohio State can play at the level it needs to control the game from start to finish, something it has not been able to do yet this season.
If Ohio State can come out of the gates strong and pull away with an early and convincing lead, the second half of Saturday’s game could become an opportunity for the Buckeyes to give more playing time to players who haven’t seen the field much yet this season. That could notably include backup quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins and Joe Burrow, but it could also include freshmen and other young players – at least the ones the Buckeyes don’t plan to redshirt – at other positions throughout the roster.
It would be risky to bet on the Buckeyes covering the 40-point spread – in part because that’s simply a huge margin of victory, and in part because any playing time for Ohio State backups could allow UNLV to make the score closer than it should be – but it does appear to be well within the realm of possibility if Ohio State can start playing at its best, or at least close to it, in all three phases of the game.
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 52, UNLV 13
