The stakes don’t get much higher for a regular-season game than they will be for Ohio State and Penn State when the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions meet in Ohio Stadium on Saturday.
As expected since before the season even began, Saturday’s game between the No. 2-ranked Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) and No. 6 Buckeyes (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) could ultimately decide a division title, conference title and a berth in the College Football Playoff.
While Penn State likely would have been in the top four if a set of playoff rankings had been released this week, the undefeated Nittany Lions must come to Columbus and defeat Ohio State – the toughest opponent they have played yet this season – to stay there.
Ohio State, meanwhile, knows its playoff chances are on the line. While the Buckeyes still appear to control their own destiny after cruising to victory in their last five games, their loss in their first big game of the season against Oklahoma means they must defeat Penn State – the team that kept the Buckeyes from winning a Big Ten title last year – to avoid picking up what would almost certainly be a playoff-eliminating second loss.
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| PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS |
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7-0, 4-0 B1G ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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3:30 P.M. – SATURDAY, OCT. 28 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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FOX FOX SPORTS GO |
After losing to Penn State last year – their first loss to the Nittany Lions in Urban Meyer’s coaching tenure – the Buckeyes could have revenge on their minds. Everything that’s at stake in what should be the Buckeyes’ toughest remaining game of the regular season, however, should be motivation enough.
"If you can’t get up for this game, then it’s just probably not the place for you," said Ohio State wide receiver Terry McLaurin. "This has College Football Playoff implications, it has Big Ten championship implications. This is why you come to Ohio State, to play in these big games."
While Ohio State didn’t have to stress much to beat Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland or Nebraska, the Buckeyes know they are in for a much stiffer challenge against the Nittany Lions on Saturday, but they say they are ready to be put to the test. In their first game under the national spotlight since the loss to Oklahoma, the Buckeyes feel like they have something to prove.
"It’s been built up, ever since that game," said Ohio State defensive tackle Tracy Sprinkle, referencing the loss to Oklahoma. "Every week since Week 2, we’ve been trying to get better and better. Defensively, offensively and special teams. So I think we’ve just been building it up every week so when we go out here Saturday, we’ll be ready to play."
“This has College Football Playoff implications, it has Big Ten championship implications. This is why you come to Ohio State, to play in these big games.”– Terry McLaurin
Penn State Breakdown
It wasn’t known that Penn State had a team capable of beating Ohio State, let alone becoming one of the best teams in college football by the end of the season, when the Buckeyes traveled to State College last year. At the time of that game, which the home team won 24-21, the Nittany Lions had lost two of their first six games of the season and were unranked.
Going into this year’s game, there’s no question that the Nittany Lions pose a serious threat to the Buckeyes this time around. Currently ranked ahead of every team in college football except Alabama, Penn State appears capable of providing a real challenge to Ohio State in all three phases of the game: offense, defense and special teams.
The star of Penn State’s offense – and arguably this year’s biggest star in all of college football – is running back Saquon Barkley, who leads the Football Bowl Subdivision with 211.1 all-purpose yards per game. Barkley has had success against Ohio State in the past – he ran for 194 yards against the Buckeyes as a freshman in 2015, then ran for 99 yards on only 12 carries against the Buckeyes last year – but has taken his game to another level this season, emerging as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner.
Ohio State has expressed its respect for Barkley all week, with Meyer going as far as to call Barkley "as good an all-purpose running back" as he has faced in his entire coaching career. The best individual runner the Buckeyes defense will have faced this season, Barkley also presents a threat to Ohio State’s passing defense – specifically its linebackers – with his ability, as Penn State’s leader in catches, to come out of the backfield and make plays downfield as a receiver. With 15 plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage already this season, Barkley has an ability to make big plays that Ohio State will have to constantly account for.
That said, Barkley is far from the only playmaker on Penn State’s offense.
Quarterback Trace McSorley, who has passed for 14 touchdowns and rushed for seven touchdowns already this season, is a dynamic player in his own right who will take chances with his arm, evade pressure with his feet and make plays in the running game himself, especially if the Buckeyes shift too much of their focus to Barkley.
Wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton, who became Penn State’s leading receiver for the season after catching six passes for 115 yards last weekend against Michigan, is an experienced and versatile pass-catcher who can challenge the Buckeyes’ secondary both outside and from the slot.
Tight end Mike Gesicki, considered to be an elite athlete for his size at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, is another player who commands the Buckeyes’ attention with his ability to create mismatches as a downfield receiver.
Combining all of those playmakers together, the Buckeyes defense knows it is going to have its hands full on Saturday.
"Some teams have a great running back, but not a good tight end. Some have a good running back, good tight end but not a good quarterback. This team, they have it all," said Ohio State linebacker Jerome Baker. "Good receivers, good tight end, good running back. So it’s really just every play, you got to do your job."
The one perceived area of weakness on Penn State’s offense is its offensive line, which has allowed 18 sacks in seven games this season. But Meyer said he believes that unit, which includes three returning starters from last season, is also "much improved" this year.
While Penn State’s offense gets most of the headlines because of players like Barkley, McSorley and Gesicki, the Nittany Lions’ best unit statistically this year has actually been its defense, which has allowed only 9.6 points per game – less than any other defense in the FBS this season – and no more than 19 points in any single game.
The Nittany Lions defense has yet to be tested by an offense of Ohio State’s caliber – none of Penn State’s first seven opponents rank in the nation’s top 80 in scoring offense – but Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson says Penn State’s defense has played "very, very good" regardless of who its competition has been.
"They play very, very fast," Wilson said. "They’re excellent in coverage, the way they attack up front, the way they pressure the quarterback. When they blitz, they get behind their pads and come up hard sacking the quarterback, creating turnovers and they’re playing strong defense. It doesn’t matter what the competition. They are playing as a unit. It’s going to be a tremendous challenge."
As Meyer has noted throughout the week, Penn State plays an aggressive style of defense, frequently bringing an extra rusher on a blitz to increase pressure on opposing offenses.
"They’re a penetrating defense," Meyer said, "and they play very, very hard."
While Meyer didn’t want to single out any individual Penn State defensive linemen as being better than any others, he said he has been impressed with that unit as a whole as well as with Penn State middle linebacker Jason Cabinda, who leads the Nittany Lions with 52 total tackles this season.
"The combination of (Cabinda) and that defensive line ... that's what you notice right away, is the explosiveness of the defensive line and a guy like (Cabinda), great player," Meyer said. "I just think they’re well-coached and go extremely hard."
As for the back end of Penn State’s defense, Meyer says the Nittany Lions secondary – which is led by a pair of Jim Thorpe Award semifinalists in safety Marcus Allen and cornerback Grant Haley – is "probably the best secondary" Ohio State will have faced this season.
Thorpe Award semifinalist Grant Haley is among the stars of Penn State's defense. Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports
Penn State’s defense has been consistently dominant this season, especially early in games, having yet to allow a single first-quarter point in seven games. The Nittany Lions have also thrived, though, on forcing turnovers, with 18 takeaways already this season.
McLaurin says that makes it crucial for the Buckeyes to avoid errors that will give Penn State opportunities to take the ball away.
"There’s no surprise at what they’re going to do," McLaurin said. "They try to create chaos and confusion so they can capitalize on your mistakes, and our job is just to minimize those mistakes, to have none. You can’t afford that in these type of games."
The Nittany Lions – who won last year’s game in large part because of a field goal block by Allen returned for a touchdown by Haley – also have the ability to make big plays on special teams. With Barkley on kickoff returns and wide receiver DeAndre Thompkins on punt returns, Penn State has scored a touchdown on each of those phases and rank among the nation’s best in average yards on both kickoff returns (third) and punt returns (14th).
Penn State’s Blake Gillkin has been among the best punters in the FBS this year, ranking 17th nationally with an average of more than 44.5 yards per punt, while the Nittany Lions have just seven return yards in punt coverage.
The Nittany Lions’ one weakness on special teams has been its field goal unit, as Tyler Davis has made six of his 13 field goal attempts this season, so Penn State could run into problems if it needs to hit a big kick to win Saturday’s game.
Overall, though, Penn State appears to have one of the most complete teams in college football, and one that will require Ohio State to be at its best to come out with a win.
"Their skill level is one of the best in the country," Meyer said. "It’ll be a hell of a challenge."
Buckeye Breakdown
Since its loss to Oklahoma, Ohio State has performed as well as any team in college football. Ohio State’s offense has averaged more than 50 points and 600 yards over its last five games, while its defense has held its last five opponents to averages of less than 12 points and 250 yards per game.
Penn State coach James Franklin is among those who have been impressed by the Buckeyes’ play.
"They’re kind of hitting on all cylinders," Franklin said. "They’ve scored a bunch of points, they’re playing great defense and athletic as anything on special teams."
Those performances, though, have all come against opponents who were clearly overmatched by the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball. That leaves questions about whether the Buckeyes are truly elite on both sides of the ball, or just taking advantage of lesser competition, as neither their offense nor their defense performed well in their 31-16 loss to Oklahoma in their second game.
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| OFFENSE | ||||
| 47.3 | 2nd | POINTS FOR | 40.0 | 16th |
| 250.6 | 18th | RUSHING OFFENSE | 173.4 | 54th |
| 326.7 | 12th | PASSING OFFENSE | 289.9 | 25th |
| 577.3 | 3rd | TOTAL OFFENSE | 463.3 | 27th |
| .494 | 10th | 3rd DOWNS | .393 | 68th |
| .857 | 54th | RED ZONE | .844 | 62nd |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| 15.4 | 10th | POINTS ALLOWED | 9.6 | 1st |
| 109.6 | 14th | RUSH DEFENSE | 115.3 | 17th |
| 195.7 | 38th | PASS DEFENSE | 167.6 | 7th |
| 114.9 | 32nd | PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE | 94.0 | 1st |
| 305.3 | 16th | TOTAL DEFENSE | 282.9 | 9th |
| .299 | 17th | 3rd DOWNS | .345 | 41st |
| .647 | 6th | RED ZONE | .667 | 8th |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||
| 3.1 | 118th | PUNT RETURN | 15.1 | 14th |
| 30.6 | 2nd | KICKOFF RETURN | 29.3 | 3rd |
| 41.6 | 15th | NET PUNTING | 42.9 | 9th |
| MISCELLANEOUS | ||||
| + 1.0 | 15th | TURNOVER MARGIN | + 1.7 | 2nd |
| 7.4 | 106th | PENALTIES | 3.5 | 3rd |
| 10 | EDGE | 8 | ||
Saturday will be the Buckeyes’ chance to attempt to prove not only that their offense and defense truly have improved over the course of the season, but also that Ohio State legitimately belongs in the conversation as a championship contender.
Going up against the nation’s top-ranked scoring defense will certainly put Ohio State’s offense to the test on Saturday, but the Buckeyes – led by quarterback J.T. Barrett, who could emerge as a Heisman contender in his own right with a great performance on Saturday – feel good about the way the offense has come together and are confident they will continue to make strides this weekend.
"Right now, the offense as a whole is clicking the best it’s been in years," said Ohio State center Billy Price. "It’s clicking at the right moments. We’re hitting things, we’re timing things up nicely. We’re making sure that we’re isolating and making sure that our players are on their players and making sure that our guys are in advantageous positions."
After starting the season with only healthy star running back in J.K. Dobbins, the Buckeyes now have two in Dobbins and Mike Weber. New playmakers have emerged at wide receiver and tight end, and the offensive line has also appeared to improve.
Franklin believes it took a few games for the Buckeyes to hit their stride with Wilson in his first year as offensive coordinator, but now that they have, Penn State’s coach sees an Ohio State offense that he expects will be tough to stop.
"They're putting up big time points and yards on everybody," Franklin said. "You knew it was just a matter of time because Kevin's such a good coach and they have so many good players. I see J.T. playing with a lot of confidence right now, and he's obviously surrounded by a lot of talent and he's doing a great job of distributing the ball to that talent. You have an experienced playmaking quarterback playing in a scheme that really accents his abilities and his supporting cast. So it's going to be a real challenge, there's no doubt about it."
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State’s defensive line – coached by former Penn State defensive line coach Larry Johnson – is typically the unit that draws the most praise from opposing teams, and this week has been no exception.
"They have tremendous depth, size, athleticism and power up front," Franklin said. "That's kind of been their calling card. Coach Johnson obviously does an unbelievable job with them and has his whole career."
Larry Johnson leads Ohio State's defensive line into battle against his former team on Saturday.
While Ohio State’s defensive line is likely to have an advantage over Penn State’s offensive line, the question mark for the Buckeyes defense entering this game is their back seven, which has had its share of struggles against downfield passing teams this year.
Ohio State’s linebackers are sure to be put to the test on Saturday, given Barkley’s ability as a receiver out of the backfield and the threat of Gesicki at tight end, but the most maligned unit has been the secondary, which has given up its share of big plays on the back end. But while the play of the Buckeyes’ defensive backs hasn’t yet played up to the standard of the unit that lost three first-round NFL draft picks from last year, Gesicki and Penn State wide receiver Juwan Johnson both said this week that they still see similar attributes in this year’s Ohio State secondary from what they saw last year.
"These guys are still athletic," Johnson said. "It seems like they haven’t missed much of a beat. They’re still guys that can still go to the NFL and make a big impact in the NFL."
Given what happened last year, when Ohio State had a punt blocked in addition to the field goal block, special teams have surely been a point of emphasis for the Buckeyes leading up to this game. The biggest question mark for the Buckeyes’ special teams this year has been their kickoff unit, which could be a reason for concern with Barkley set to run back kicks for Ohio State, but Meyer has expressed confidence in that unit this week after expressing consternation with that unit earlier in the season.
Ohio State has numerous factors that could work in its favor entering this game. In addition to home-field advantage, the Buckeyes are coming off an open week, giving them an extra week to prepare for this game while Penn State spent last week preparing to play Michigan. Ohio State has won each of its last two home games against Penn State by at least 28 points, and Meyer has a 21-1 record for his coaching career in games directly following in-season off weeks.
All of that said, though, the Buckeyes know they must perform at their best on Saturday in order to capitalize on those advantages.
"We’re coming off a bye week, so I feel like that’s an advantage for us," McLaurin said. "We got a jump start on them. But they're going to come in ready. They’re coming off of a big win at their place."
How It Plays Out
Much like last year’s game between Ohio State and Penn State in Happy Valley, Saturday’s game between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions in Columbus could come down to which team can make the bigger play with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
| Year | Location | Result |
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| 2016 | State College, Pa. | Penn State 24, Ohio State 21 |
| 2015 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 38, Penn State 10 |
| 2014 | State College, Pa. | Ohio State 31, Penn State 24 |
| 2013 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 63, Penn State 14 |
| 2012 | State College, Pa. | Ohio State 35, Penn State 23 |
Saturday’s game will be a true test of whether Penn State is as good as it has looked all season, as well as of whether Ohio State is as good as it has looked since its loss to Oklahoma, so it’s certainly possible that one team or one unit could get exposed and prove to be overmatched.
It seems more likely, though, that the game will be a closely contested, down-to-the-wire affair that gets decided by a touchdown or less.
If Ohio State’s offense can maintain the rhythm that it has had over the last five games, it could expose a Penn State defense that has feasted on weaker competition this season. At the same time, it’s equally possible that Penn State’s defense could expose any lingering flaws that the Buckeyes were able to mask against weaker competition.
"When you see the numbers that we’ve put up and the numbers that they’ve put up, somebody’s going to have to win," McLaurin said. "Whether you have the No. 1 offense on our side or the No. 1 defense on their side, somebody has to get that edge."
On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s combination of playmakers could be a recipe for Ohio State’s defense, which has already had issues in pass defense bubble to the surface. Yet if Ohio State’s defensive line can control the matchup at the line of scrimmage with Penn State’s defensive line, it’s also possible the Buckeyes could knock Barkley, McSorley and the rest of the Nittany Lions offense out of their rhythm.
Special teams play, which made an integral difference in the outcome of last year’s game, could make a difference in this year’s result too if the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are as closely matched as expected on offense and defense.
Every phase of the game is likely to make a real difference on how this game plays out. The ultimate difference in Saturday's game, though, could simply be which team is better prepared and plays closest to its maximum ability.
"They’re going to look to show that they’re the No. 2 team in the country, and our job is to execute at a high level and show that we’re the top team in the country," McLaurin said. "So it’s going to be a long game, a tough execution type game, but the team that can execute and play the hardest the longest is going to win."
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 31, Penn State 24
