If you haven't heard, there's a football game this weekend.
No. 6 Ohio State hosts No. 2 Penn State on Saturday with Big Ten Championship hopes, a College Football Playoff h and of course, bragging rights, on the line.
Penn State heads to Columbus with arguably the top player in college football, an elite passing defense, an a high-powered offense that just dropped 42 points on Ohio State's rivals to the north.
To help break down this game and give us a little insight from behind enemy lines, we welcome our friends Mike Treb, Bill DiFilippo and Matt de Bear from RoarLionsRoar.com, the Penn State site we all love to know.
What about this Ohio State team scares them the most? Which current Buckeye would they add to Penn State's roster if they could? What do they think of Ohio State's alternate uniforms?
Well, we're about to find out.
Give us an idea of how huge this game is for Penn State. Is it the biggest game in the post-Paterno era? Maybe even longer than that?
Treb: Yes, it’s certainly the biggest game in the post-Paterno era. Now, for me, it’s the biggest since then because it also signifies a marked difference in the attitude of the Nittany Lions going on the road against good teams. Prior to Franklin, Penn State played so dang conservatively on the road — you could almost see it in the players’ eyes that they just didn’t want to screw up because “don’t screw up!” had been drilled into their heads all week.
Not this team. Franklin keeps them focused, but loose. There’s a definite feeling among fans that Penn State can do this in Columbus, whereas in years past? No confidence. Extreme dread. So, this game is “big” in the sense that Penn State needs to fulfill that confidence and produce a victory against an ultra-talented team and accomplished coaching staff.
Bill: Of the post-Paterno era, absolutely. This game could determine whether Penn State gets the chance to play for a national title down the road, and that opportunity hasn’t popped up in the last few years. I enrolled at Penn State in 2010, and in that time, this is the biggest game the program has played by a magnitude of a lot.
Matt: It is definitely the biggest post-Paterno. I'd argue it's The biggest since at least 2008, when Penn State beat Ohio State in Columbus. As big as last year's Big Ten Championship game vs. Wisconsin was, the Nittany Lions still needed help to get into the playoff. That is not the case going into this weekend.
Give us your quick analysis of Penn State. What are the team’s biggest strengths and weaknesses? How do you see them playing out against Ohio State?
Treb: Penn State’s strengths are its overall offensive capabilities (meaning they just can do a bunch of different damage, even if your defense is good) and a defense that will fight you in any venue required. A major weakness continues to be the offensive line. Though the unit performed well against what is suddenly a very maligned Michigan defense, the O-line is not, right now, a rock solid group you can count on without skepticism. And probably one of the more stunning weaknesses is kicker Tyler Davis’ regression this season. He goes from nearly perfect (22-24 in 2016; both were blocked) to an unacceptable 6-13. Surely the kicking game won’t factor into this game! Right?!
Bill: Strengths: Penn State is very good at running and throwing the football and keeping teams from running and throwing the football. It’s also good on covering kicks and punting. It is extremely weird that there are a few answers to this and not, like, one thing. It’s refreshing and I now know what it’s like to be an Ohio State fan.
Weaknesses: Penn State’s offensive line is still prone to giving up negative plays in the rushing game, and there are times when the offense can go stale. Defensively, the Nittany Lions have been lights out this year, but they haven’t been tested by an offense anywhere near as good as Ohio State. And on special teams, kicker Tyler Davis was automatic coming into this year but has inexplicably struggled.
Matt: Saquon Barkley is the obvious answer on offense, but there is plenty of skill at receiver and quarterback too. On the other side of the ball, the secondary might be the best in the Big Ten, and the line is noticeably improving weekly.
In his Monday press conference, Urban Meyer called Penn State’s pass defense the best in the nation. Is that statement accurate, or just another example of Meyer’s patented hyperbole?
Treb: Meyer is sorta right with a sprinkle of hyperbole in there, too. There’s incredible versatility and — again, talent — in the secondary. When starting CB John Reid suffered a season-ending injury in camp, the outlook was not great. However, Grant Haley (my Buckeye pals, you remember him, yes?), Christian Campbell and Amani Oruwariye have been so stout. Unlike PSU’s O-line, the corners have been a luxury; you don’t really worry that they’ll have major, consistent gaffes. Safety Marcus Allen, of course, is the heart and soul of the team, and creates tremendous havoc. The weak link of the group is safety Troy Apke, and Ohio State would be wise to attack him in space and various mismatches.
Bill: Well it’s certainly not a bad one. The Nittany Lions are fifth in passing S&P+, 11th in passing success rate, and fifth in passing IsoPPP. They’ve also forced nine interceptions on the year. I wouldn’t go as far as to say it’s the best, but it is really, really good. Seeing as how the team’s best cornerback, John Reid, will not play this year due to a knee injury, that’s kind of shocking. And like I said, it hasn’t faced an especially great offense yet. It’s going to answer a ton of questions if it can slow down J.T. Barrett, though.
Matt: Best in the nation may be a bit of a reach, but they are very good. Perhaps most surprising is they're doing this without last year's best corner, John Reid, who is out for the year with a knee injury. They are fast, long, and deep.
Let’s talk about Saquon Barkley. Heading into this game, he’s averaging 146.5 yards and 7.71 yards per carry against Ohio State. This year, he’s even returning kickoffs, and the Buckeyes have already had problems with that unit. How afraid should Ohio State fans be of Barkley? Are we going to see those sort of numbers again? Or will Ohio State shut him down and force somebody else to beat them?
Treb: Look, I’m not here to tell you who to be afraid of. What I will say is that even if you keep Barkley bottled for 80 percent of his touches, he has the ability to whiplash you with a big run, catch or kickoff return. You’re never truly safe when he’s on the field, no matter if Ohio State’s defensive is stuffing runs or disrupting the pocket. Limit those whiplash plays, though, and keep him from any consistent running room, and Ohio State’s chances of winning go way up. See? It’s easy!
Bill: He’s very good. Like, incredibly good. I have never seen a running back quite like him, namely with his ability to gain yards on a play that looks hopeless. If he has room to run, I have zero doubt that he’ll be able to carve up the Buckeyes. The problem, though, is that space can sometimes be hard to come by. Penn State’s line had a good game against Michigan, but it’s going to be really interesting to see if it can be solid against the Buckeyes. If they can just be average, Barkley’s going to have a big game, because he just does that. If not? Well, I’d rather not think about that.
Matt: Quite simply, he's the most explosive college player I've seen since Reggie Bush. He does everything on the offensive side of the field, and in many cases, he's done it in Penn State's biggest game. Joe Moorhead has done a great job moving him around and finding creative ways to get him the ball, even if teams sell out to stop him on the ground.
Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma lit up Ohio State with a strong dose of run-pass option plays. Penn State’s offense looks very similar to Oklahoma, from a scheme standpoint as well as personnel – especially with Trace McSorely running around back there. Will the Nittany Lions have similar success offensively, or do you think the Buckeyes have made the necessary adjustments?
Treb: The first couple of series will really tell the story of how this chess game is going to go. McSorley, under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, has grown into a reliable decision maker, especially on the RPOs. McSorley gashed Michigan last week on the ground in key spots. And Moorhead is adept at making adjustments. Ohio State won’t have it easy, but the Buckeyes certainly have the bodies and speed to clamp down.
Bill: I’d have to imagine that Ohio State’s coaches spent the last two weeks hyper-focused on making sure McSorley isn’t able to pick apart the Buckeye defense in a manner similar to Mayfield. You can absolutely expect to see Penn State trying to break out the smoke and mirrors to try and catch Ohio State off guard, whether it’s with run-pass option plays (which McSorley, Barkley, and the team’s receiving corps pull off as well as anyone) or by moving players around and putting players in 1-on-1 matchups that look to take advantage of their physical abilities (namely Barkley on a linebacker in the passing game and Mike Gesicki on a shorter defensive back).
Matt: That's the million dollar question. There's no doubt Ohio State's defense has improved vs. Oklahoma, but it's impossible to say how much given the opposition. The Buckeyes will have more success getting to McSorley than Mayfield, given Penn State's questions along the offensive line, but the OSU secondary is going to face quite the challenge with DaeSean Hamilton, Juwan Johnson, Mike Gesicki, and the rest of a deep PSU receiving corps.
If you could add any current Ohio State player to Penn State’s roster, who would it be and why?
Treb: Nick Bosa. Penn State’s defensive line is deep and relentless, but Bosa is in another world and would be a total wolf (I went there) on this Nittany Lion defense.
Bill: I would like Nick Bosa, because even though Penn State’s defensive line is very good, I am pretty sure he could overpower god if you put the lord himself at tackle.
Matt: Any number of the terrifying defensive ends the Buckeyes can roll out would do just fine. Penn State's line is certainly improving, and full of potential, but adding a proven edge rusher is a dynamic the Lions don't quite have yet.
What scares you the most about this Ohio State team? Is there any particular player, coach or unit that terrifies you heading into this game?
Treb: While the Buckeye defensive line is scary because they’re massive giants who are fast as hell, it’s J.T. Barrett for me. He’s essentially seen it all. Does anything really rattle him? And I don’t mean that he doesn’t have his own poor/not great performances, but I wouldn’t necessarily pin that on him getting rattled. From afar, he appears so confident, so in control and so respected by his team. That’s a dangerous cocktail, especially when you’re slinging a 21-1 TD-INT ratio thus far.
Bill: I think Penn State can throw on Ohio State, but I also think it’d really behoove Penn State to not get in 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long situations. So I’ll say the Buckeye rush defense, which per S&P+ has been insane this year and can make it really, really difficult for the Nittany Lion rushing game.
Matt: Along those same lines, it's the defensive line. Penn State's one and only offensive weakness is along the offensive line, and while they were solid at home against a very good Michigan defensive front, taking that on the road to Columbus against a better group is a huge challenge.
If you’re choosing a quarterback for your team, do you ride with Trace McSorely or J.T. Barrett, and why?
Treb: I’d go with McSorley more because I’d hate to mess with the mojo. It’s a silly reason, sure, but so is envisioning Barrett on Penn State (but I’m playing along!). McSorley — whom your colleague D.J. Byrnes dubbed “Sober Johnny Manziel” and I can’t stop thinking about it — combines the passing and running needed for this Penn State system perfectly. Watch what he did to Michigan last week on those smash fades and the toe-tap toss to tight end Mike Gesicki. I can’t truly put it into words, but that’s why I’ll take him over Barrett.
Bill: Give me McSorley. My reasoning is twofold: 1. I am horribly biased, 2. He plays the game with a confidence and a swagger that led to him being nicknamed “Sober Johnny Manziel” by, I believe, a member of your staff. He is someone you want to go to war with, and this is going to be a war, so I’ll ride with No. 9.
Matt: I'll take the diplomatic way out and say it depends on the system I'm running. Barrett is such a great fit for what Meyer runs, and McSorley is right out of central casting for Joe Moorhead. If push came to shove, I'd probably go with Barrett, simply based on a three-plus year track record.
What do you think of the uniforms Ohio State is rolling out this Saturday? They’re getting such mixed reviews from Buckeye fans, it’s good to have an opinion from an outsider.
Treb: As I noted in my celebrity guest pickers piece on Roar Lions Roar earlier this week, the uniforms look like concrete ashtrays to me. No disrespect, of course! Again, very respectfully: They look like concrete ashtrays. The shoes are pretty neat, though. The helmet looks like someone broke a bunch of thermometers on it, and there’s just mercury everywhere. Seems unsafe.
Bill: I addressed this over at RLR (scroll to the bottom for my section!), but they look like white uniforms that you’re viewing through a cloud of smoke. I am not a fan.
Matt: I'm actually OK with the gray color, but uh, the wolf theme is weird to begin with, and the execution is, uh, lacking.
Finally, what’s your score prediction? How do you see the game playing out?
Treb: Come on, it’s OK, Buckeye fans. You can admit it: This is the first time in a long while that Ohio State fans are kinda concerned about a game with Penn State. The Nittany Lions have talent and swagger. They clawed back from the dead in Kinnick at night, and trash-compacted the Wolverines. But! But! Ohio State is really damn good, too. What a game this is going to be. Penn State 37, Ohio State 32
Bill: I’ll take the Buckeyes, 28-24. It’ll be as close as the score indicates, but in the end, Ohio State’s defensive line is able to get to McSorley enough to win this game for the Buckeyes. I will then punch my couch very hard.
Matt: I'm old enough to remember more than a few trips to Columbus where a highly ranked Penn State team was humbled in the Horseshoe. I can't see that happening this year. The Nittany Lions have too many playmakers on offense, and too good a defense to let this get out of hand. I hate giving score predictions, especially on the other guy's site, but I'll say PSU 28-24.
The guys were kind enough to return the favor, hosting me on their podcast to break down the game. Head on over there and give it a listen if you still need more preview #content.
Be sure to check out RoarLionsRoar.com for all the Penn State news you could desire, and give them a follow on Twitter, as well.
