Penn State had a 96.1% win probability, according to ESPN, after Miles Sanders scored a one-yard touchdown to put the Nittany Lions up 26-14. It didn't go swimmingly from there for the Nittany Lions. Let's take a look at how it all went down.
7:59 to play, Ohio State 1st & 10 at the OSU 25
Dwayne Haskins finds C.J. Saunders for a five-yard completion.
Penn State win probability: 95.9%
7:26 to play, Ohio State 2nd & 5 at OSU 30
Dwayne Haskins throws a pass to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the Ohio St 38 for a first down.
Penn State win probability: 95.5%
7:03 to play, Ohio State 1st & 10 at OSU 38
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete, PENALTY Penn State pass interference (Tariq Castro-Fields) 15 yards to the PSU 47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO STATE.
Penn State win probability: 94.2
6:56 to play, Ohio State 1st and 10 at PSU 47
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 44 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
Can you believe it?
— Ohio State on BTN (@OhioStateOnBTN) September 30, 2018
These two TDs pushed @OhioStateFB from a 26-14 deficit to the 27-26 final. pic.twitter.com/yI93s62ViE
Penn State win probability: 85%
6:41 to play, Penn State 1st & 10 at PSU 30
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST down.
Penn State win probability: 86.3%
6:06 to play, Penn State 1st & 10 at PSU 43
Trace McSorley rush for no gain to the PSU 43, PENALTY Ohio State, face mask (Chase Young) 15 yards to the OSU42, first down Penn State.
Penn State win probability: 89.1%
5:47 to play, Penn State 1st & 10 at OSU 41
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Ohio State 41 Penn State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Trace McSorley) to the Ohio State 46.
Penn State win probability: 84.2%
4:51 to play, Penn State 3rd & 5 at OSU 37
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mac Hippenhammer.
Penn State win probability: 83%
4:45 to play, Penn State 4th & 5 at OSU 37
Penn State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ohio State 42
Penn State win probability: 82.6%.
So, Penn State opened Ohio State's (would-be) final drive still with an 82.6% chance of victory. Would it hold up?
4:34 to play, Ohio State 1st & 10 at OSU 4
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 35 yds to the Ohio State 39 for a first down.
Penn State win probability: 74.7%
4:08 to play, Ohio State 1st & 10 at OSU 39
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the OhSt 46
Penn State win probability: 72.5%
3:33 to play, Ohio State 3rd & 3 at OSU 46
Mike Weber run for 11 yds to the Penn State 43 for a 1ST down
Penn State win probability: 70.8%
2:47 to play, Ohio State 1st & 10 at PSU 29
Dwayne Haskins pass incomplete to Parris Campbell
Penn State win probability: 71.8%
2:41 to play, Ohio State 2nd & 10 at PSU 29
J.K. Dobbins run for 5 yds to the Penn State 24
Penn State win probability: 64.5%
2:10 to play, Ohio State 3rd & 5 at PSU 24
Dwayne Haskins pass complete to K.J. Hill for 24 yards and a TOUCHDOWN.
Ohio State win probability: 69.8%
Okay, @KayJayHill!@dh_simba7 orchestrates a 96-yard 4th quarter drive to take the lead, and @OhioStateFB is up 27-26 late: pic.twitter.com/3kPh3j09Zc
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 30, 2018
2:02 to play, Penn State 1st & 10 at PSU 25
Trace McSorley pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 27 yds to the Ohio State 48 for a first down
Ohio State win probability: 51.2%
1:36 to play, Penn State 2nd & 14 at PSU 48
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Brandon Polk
Ohio State win probability: 75%
1:29 to play, Penn State 3rd & 14 at PSU 48
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the Ohio State 43
Ohio State win probability: 66.3%
1:15 to play, Penn State 4th and 5 at OSU 43
Miles Sanders run for loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 46
Ohio State win probability: 99.9%
Penn State had a last chance to keep their final drive moving, but @OhioStateFB stuffed it.
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 30, 2018
Buckeyes win, 27-26. pic.twitter.com/ONutWAgaRg
What a comeback it was for Ohio State, down to the brink of extinction.
