I don't know how many articles I've started by proclaiming myself an idiot.
I've been writing/podcasting twice a week for over ten years, so doing the math, that's something around 1000+ pieces of content. Given that I've been an idiot my entire life, my guess is that I've made that publicly known... a lot.
So since my extremely tongue-in-cheek article last week about Ohio State claiming a national championship without playing any games whatsoever withered on the vine like so many sour grapes, let's reverse course and try and figure out what kind of chances that a potential abbreviated Ohio State season might give the Buckeyes to return to whatever the hell the College Football Playoff would look like this season.
And really, it comes down to a simple question:
How many games do the Buckeyes have to play to make it in?
The short answer is, well... zero, honestly. If you're putting emphasis on the words have to. Because the College Football Playoff committee can do whatever the hell they want. If Ohio State is sitting there, ready to play, the people on the committee have every ability in the world to jolt themselves awake from their BarcaLoungers to bark out a phlegmy "BUCKS!" before sliding back into the arms of Morpheus.
That might lead to a lot of uproar, however, and if the past month or so has taught me anything (and I'm not sure that it actually has), it's that people with power are generally more interested in covering their asses than accepting the heat for doing what they feel is the right thing.
So there probably is a number. It's almost certainly less than the 10 games originally slated for Ohio State to play in the revised 2020 schedule that was released in early August, but more than say, a single home win against Nebraska.
In the interest of optimism, whether it's warranted or not, let's take a look at Ohio State's proposed 10 game slate and see just how many of those games the Buckeyes need to play and win to make them a lock for the postseason.
ILLINOIS
I am an unabashed enthusiast of Ohio State's longest-standing non-Michigan rivalry, and I will forever maintain that Illibuck is one of the greatest trophies in all of sport. I also harbor a very long term grudge against them for beating Ohio State in the last game that I attended at Ohio Stadium as a student.
No one else seems to care about that. They don't make the list.
RUTGERS
Ha! Next.
PURDUE
What's funny is that Purdue's success against Ohio State makes it at least a little more important on a national scale that the Buckeyes beat them. And most of the people on the playoff committee probably have a framed picture of Joe Tiller on their bedside table (as all red-blooded Americans should). So is it important that Ohio State play and beat the Boilermakers to get into a playoff? Unlikely, but the real question of whether or not it is absolutely necessary is probably a pretty solid no.
INDIANA
No. No one outside of the Big Ten cares whether you beat the Hoosiers, and pretty much no one inside the Big Ten cares either.
NEBRASKA
They shouldn't! But they might! Nebraska still carries inexplicable cache with some people, and right now that's slated as a home game. If we're thinking about a shortened season, Nebraska might be on the shortlist for "teams that are important to absolutely blow the hell out."
But still, no.
MICHIGAN STATE
Yes, it's an away game, people have heard of Michigan State and might casually assume that Sparty is good, and therefore it's a game the Buckeyes need to win. That's it. That's the logic. Let's say yes.
MICHIGAN
Yes, obviously. But what's funny is that from a pure football standpoint, even under normal circumstances I don't know that I've been this confident in an Ohio State team versus the Wolverines since the late 2000's. But it's The Game, so it's essential.
MARYLAND
No. Maryland is Illinois East. The end.
PENN STATE
Yes, although again, an honest appraisal of the Penn State/Michigan/Wisconsin triumvirate against Ohio State in the last decade shows a pretty damn weakass source of opposition to Buckeye hegemony.
But look, it's the Nittany Lions or nothing. They've played Ohio State closer than pretty much any other non-Purdue Big Ten team in the last decade, and they have more national prestige than pretty much any other non-Purdue team in the last decade. They're a very essential yes.
IOWA
They're Penn State, but bad, and also beat Ohio State recently. Let's give them an angry yes.
Let me pull out my calculator here, and add in a potential Wisconsin matchup in a championship game, to give us:
Five games.
That's it. Five games, all wins by a decent margin, would probably be the minimum required to accumulate the maximum amount of prestige points from the wheat of the conference while ignoring the chaff.
I'm not sure what that says about the Big Ten conference overall, or the entire playoff process, or college football in general, but five games is also probably the number that the Buckeyes have to reach on any given year, and then just have to not lose anything else. Because the truth of the matter is that there's a wide gap between "winning" and "not losing," and while during a normal year of 12ish regular season games can render that difference moot, this year I'm not so sure.
Five games, five good games, might be enough to do it in the eyes of the playoff committee. There could still be outrage from a third place SEC team that had to play three or four additional matchups, but the truth is that a) Ohio State is already viewed as a consensus top three team in the country, and that'll stay that way unless they lose, b) even if Ohio State starts late, beating the required teams would allow them to make up any lost ground, and c) this is payback for scheduling Wofford in November for years and years and years so deal with it you babies.
Ultimately it's a crap shoot. The fewer games Ohio State plays, the later they start, the harder it will be to get into the playoff. But the Buckeyes, in a year in which almost everyone anticipates them to be a national title contender, will get their shot.
Now they just have to get on the field.
