Ohio State’s margin for error to make the College Football Playoff was already slim entering the season after the Big Ten shortened the regular season to eight games.
That margin for error has only gotten smaller over the past four weeks.
For one, Ohio State has already lost one of its eight regular-season games after its game against Maryland last weekend was canceled due to a spike in COVID-19 cases in Maryland’s football program. Perhaps even more consequentially, though, the Buckeyes aren’t going to have many opportunities for résumé-boosting wins this season.
Outside of this weekend’s game against currently undefeated Indiana, and a potential Big Ten Championship Game likely against either Wisconsin or Northwestern (who are also both undefeated entering their game against each other this weekend), Ohio State is unlikely to play any other games prior to CFP selection against teams with winning records.
The Buckeyes’ first three opponents of the year (Nebraska, Penn State and Rutgers) have combined for just two wins so far this season, and each of the Buckeyes’ next three opponents after this week (Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan) have won just one game this year.
Ohio State can’t control how good its opponents are, and it can’t control whether games get canceled by its opponents, so the Buckeyes aren’t focusing on that. They’re still taking the approach that they need to prepare the same way every week and that every opponent could present a challenge.
If Ohio State wins every game it has the opportunity to play, the Buckeyes – currently ranked third in both major polls, though the first batch of CFP rankings don’t come out until next week – should make the playoff, and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t. But now that Ohio State will only play a maximum of eight games before CFP selection, and its strength of schedule isn’t going to impress anybody, it also looks increasingly as though going undefeated could be the Buckeyes’ only path to the CFP.
That, especially this week as the Buckeyes prepare to play an Indiana team that’s currently ranked ninth in the country, certainly increases the pressure for Ohio State to play its best football – or at least well enough to win – week in and week out.
“Whether somebody’s 4-0 or 0-4, we have to win every game here, so every game’s big. But when Indiana’s playing the way they are right now, it’s certainly a little bit different in the fact that this is a major challenge for us,” Ryan Day said Tuesday. “It’s a challenge every time we play a game, but the way that they’re playing and the way that they’ve won games, our margin for error gets smaller and smaller.”
Ohio State safety Josh Proctor says Day harps every day on the importance of staying focused and being prepared to win every week.
“You can’t make mistakes,” Proctor said. “We got limited games. Even Maryland last week got canceled, so you never really know what’s going to happen. So everything counts. We have to go into every game, every week focused.
“Just can’t take days off, because you never know what’s gonna happen. We get a limited amount of games, and we have to get to where we want to be.”
Couple the need to win every game – especially this week’s game, which could determine who wins the Big Ten East – with Day’s belief that the Buckeyes still need to get better to be a championship-caliber team, and Ohio State’s head coach has been feeling plenty of anxiety as the Buckeyes have had to wait an extra week to play their fourth game of the season. While they’d typically be in the home stretch of their regular season in the middle of November, they’ve so far played fewer games than they’d typically play in the month of September, which leaves Day without a firm grasp on just how good his team actually is.
He says there are still “very often” instances in practices where players make mistakes they might not typically make at this point in the season because of how many fewer games they’ve played, though he is pleased with the effort and intensity with which his team is practicing, especially on Saturday and Monday as the Buckeyes took more game-like reps to make up for not playing Maryland.
“We’ve seen the way we’ve responded to things,” Day said. “We see the daily decisions and sacrifices that have been made over time. The way we’ve stuck together. We just haven’t played a lot of football. That’s a crazy thing. There’s no way to replace playing in games. And so we’re just gonna keep moving on and just take every day and every game as it comes, and understand that every game is a blessing, and try to get better.
“The response has been good, the pads have been clicking, and I think that’s all really positive momentum. But we gotta go play and put it on the field. So that’s the challenge.”
“Whether somebody’s 4-0 or 0-4, we have to win every game here, so every game’s big.”– Ryan Day
Even if Ohio State plays the rest of its scheduled games and wins out, it will have played fewer games than potential playoff opponents like Clemson and Notre Dame (who have both already played eight games and could play as many as 12 including the ACC Championship Game) and Alabama (who has played six games and could play as many as 10 including the SEC Championship Game).
Day isn’t overly concerned, though, that his team will be at a disadvantage in terms of playoff candidacy or postseason preparation as a result of playing a shorter schedule – so long as the Buckeyes take care of business in every game they do play.
“I worry about a lot of things, for sure. That really isn’t one of them,” Day said. “I think that if we’re able to play our schedule and play in the championship game and everything like that, then we’ll be right where we need to be. And I think a lot of the schools … when you look throughout the country, they’ve missed games, they’ve had people miss time. It’s just been kind of crazy. So no, I don’t think that part should factor in. I don’t think it will.”
