Well, we're finally here.
After more than a year of Ohio State pleading and dying for a second chance against Clemson, the Buckeyes finally – almost mercifully – get their shot at redemption. Ryan Day's No. 3 seed get its opportunity to make up for 29-23 tonight against Dabo Swinney's No. 2 Tigers in the Sugar Bowl.
Our Eleven Warriors staff share our final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of arguably the most-anticipated battle of the season in the College Football Playoff rematch.
Final Thoughts
Justin Fields needs to have a “this is what legends are made of” performance…
… or close to it.
I’m not saying Fields needs to throw for six touchdowns or finish with 600 total yards. But he needs to be dominant. Needs to show why he was the No. 2 quarterback in the 2018 class. Needs to show – just for one game – that he should have been the No. 1 quarterback in the 2018 class over Trevor Lawrence. Needs to prove all of us who said in the preseason that he’s the most talented quarterback in Ohio State history that we were correct.
If Chris Olave runs the post, Fields bangs that touchdown pass on him, and that immediately puts him in legend status. I’ve held that belief since the week after the game concluded. But, as the Buckeyes promoted in their ridiculously good CFP hype video, how often do you get a second chance in life? Fields (and Olave) get that second chance tonight.
As I said in the roundtable, though, will Fields’ protection hold up enough to give him a shot? That’s another question entirely. He’s looked skittish and uncomfortable in both of his biggest games this season (Indiana and Northwestern). Looked like he didn’t trust his pass pro, and that helped lead to his career-worst performances.
–Zack Carpenter
There are a remarkable number of subplots
The ultimate result is the No. 1 thing that will be remembered. That’s the reason why 29-23 hung inside the Woody Hayes Athletic Center weight room since January.
But man, oh man, I’m not sure if I can remember a game with so many subplots.
Revenge on the line for the Buckeyes. Chris Olave’s redemption game. Brent Venables’ sign-stealing. Justin Fields’ last playoff run. Dabo Swinney ranking the Buckeyes 11th. Shaun Wade’s chance at vengeance. Ohio State’s first Sugar Bowl since winning it all. Justin Fields vs. Trevor Lawrence 2.0. The Buckeyes going for their first-ever win versus the Tigers.
I’m not even going to attempt to list them all. But I’m so glad each and every one of them exist. We should be in for a fun one.
– Colin Hass-Hill
Clemson has been the better team, but there's still a real path to victory for Ohio State
I'm just going to be honest with you all: I've expected Clemson to win this game since before it was even officially announced, because I think the Tigers have played better football this year – and I'm not sure it's been particularly close.
Yet in the last couple days leading up to this game, I've started to think Ohio State's chances of winning are better than I initially thought. To some extent, I feel like I always expect games to be increasingly closer the more I write about them – even games the Buckeyes are expected to win big – because you look at the positives of both sides as you hype games up. But there are a few factors that could swing the game in Ohio State's favor that I'm started to think more and more about this week.
I think Ohio State could win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I think Nolan Turner's first-half absence could be a real problem for Clemson's defense. I think Ohio State has more overall talent, and if the Buckeyes can finally play up to their ability in all phases of the game, their best might be better than Clemson's best.
I still think Clemson should probably win this game – largely because I'm not confident in Ohio State's passing defense and because I don't think Ohio State's desire for revenge is going to make an actual difference in a game of this magnitude – but my belief in the Buckeyes' potential to win this game has increased in a real way.
– Dan Hope
This is what Ohio State has been asking for.
Since the moment the clock hit zero last year, Ohio State's been pining for a shot at redemption. I don't think there's a player or coach on the team that didn't want to run last year's game right back after the way it ended, and the theme of this entire offseason has been redemption. And now they've got a chance at it.
Clemson might be the stronger and better team on paper and maybe Ohio State would have matched up better with Notre Dame, but the reality is that this is the matchup the Buckeyes wanted. And it's the one we're getting.
– Kevin Harrish
Questions
Is Justin Fields actually healthy?
Brief, one-sentence answers from Fields and Ryan Day that he is “good” and “fine” to play in tonight's game didn't exactly convince me that Ohio State's quarterback will be playing without limitations against Clemson.
I don't think there was ever any doubt that Fields' thumb injury was going to keep him from playing in the College Football Playoff, and even if he's less than 100 percent, I still think he'll make big plays and perform much better than he did against Northwestern – because that's the kind of talent and competitor he is.
But I can't help but think back to last year's College Football Playoff game, before which Day tried not to let on that Fields was dealing with a significant knee injury, only to reveal after the season that Fields had missed practice time leading up to the game and that he was not nearly 100 percent. I don't think we'll know until the game gets going on Friday whether Fields is actually healthy, but my feeling is Fields and Day would have answered with a little more conviction if they had no concerns that his thumb injury might affect his play.
– Dan Hope
How is Trey Sermon going to look?
Trey Sermon looked like a completely different running back in the Big Ten title game, finishing the game with more than double his yards per carry from the previous five games. The dude was absolutely unstoppable, rushing for more yards after contact (190) than any running back has had regular yards in any other game this season.
But can he do it again?
There's a good chance Sermon enters this game with all the confidence in the world and runs with the same energy he had in the Big Ten championship game. But there's also a reasonable chance that the record-breaking performance was just a statistical outlier.
Tonight, we'll see.
– Kevin Harrish
Is the impact of Ohio State's linebackers being underrated?
Yes, Ohio State’s cornerbacks and safeties need to show they’ve improved from the Indiana debacle. But I’m not convinced there’s been enough made of the effect this linebacker corps might have on Friday’s game.
Minimizing Travis Etienne’s ability to make plays in space and Trevor Lawrence’s success running the ball will be paramount, and that’s where guys like Pete Werner, Baron Browning (if he’s able to play) and Justin Hilliard become especially important. With those three – this probably isn’t Tuf Borland showcase game – and Josh Proctor in the spotlight here, is there a chance they contain Etienne and Lawrence and put Clemson behind the sticks?
They got an in-person look at those two last year that didn’t always go well, with Etienne catching three passes for 98 yards and Lawrence rushing for 107 yards. Now, they have a second chance. Be on the lookout for the linebackers vs. Etienne and Lawrence because it might just be the most important matchup that hasn't been discussed ad nauseam.
– Colin Hass-Hill
Can Ohio State’s pressure give its secondary a chance?
Even though it doesn’t have an all-star defensive end like it has in the past, and even though it only comes in tied for No. 25 in America with 2.83 sacks per game, Ohio State has one of the top pass rushes in the nation with the third-best quarterback pressure rate in college football (41.34 percent).
The Buckeyes did a great job getting in Trevor Lawrence’s grill last year with some physical hits and three sacks. If they don’t have a repeat type of performance in the Sugar Bowl, there’s zero chance the secondary will hold up against Amari Rodgers, Cornell Powell and E.J. Williams.
No, those guys aren’t Clemson receivers of the past like Sammy Watkins or Mike Williams. But they’re great talents nonetheless, and they will put a hurting on Ohio State’s back seven without its front four (and blitzers) making life difficult on Lawrence.
–Zack Carpenter
Prediction
Trey Sermon will be the clear feature back
I'm not really going out on a limb here, yet I feel like Ohio State has conditioned me to expect a near-even split of carries between its top two running backs. After Trey Sermon's school-record 331 yards in the Big Ten Championship Game, though, I think he's clearly the Buckeyes' best running back and Ohio State needs to keep him on the field for the vast majority of snaps.
That's nothing against Master Teague, who I think has performed well for the most part this season. But in a game of this magnitude, Ohio State needs to have its best players on the field as much as possible, and Sermon made it clear he is that at running back with his spectacular performance against Northwestern. I think Sermon will – or at least should – be on the field for about 75% of Ohio State's offensive plays against the Wildcats.
– Dan Hope
This will be college football’s most physical game of the season
Any other year, the atmosphere in the Superdome would be truly remarkable for a game of this stature. Two fan bases that hate each other. Two teams that are intimately familiar with one another. It would be college football perfection.
Instead of tens of thousands of people packed into the stadium, the Sugar Bowl will only allow a few thousand in. That, however, might allow TV viewers to better hear what I think will be the most physical game of the season. The thuds of the pads. The yells of players and coaches. Those might come through even better than usual.
– Colin Hass-Hill
The Buckeyes will own the trenches
Clemson probably has the more talented team across the board, but Ohio State has the advantage up front on both sides of the ball.
With a dominant interior defensive line play and an offensive line stacked with future NFL players going against the most mediocre Tiger defensive line and offensive line in years, the Buckeyes are going to own the point of attack. It's just a matter of if that's going to be enough to compensate for some disadvantages elsewhere.
– Kevin Harrish
Ohio State loses by two scores
I think Tommy Togiai and Haskell Garrett are going to have a hell of a night on the inside in stuffing Clemson’s run game. Travis Etienne only rushed for 36 yards in last season’s Fiesta Bowl, and Togiai and Garrett will be at the forefront of keeping him around 50 yards rushing or less once again.
Where Etienne killed Ohio State last year was in the passing game with a pair of huge plays via catch-and-run touchdowns of 53 and 34 yards. Those two receptions accounted for 77 of his 98 yards. I see a repeat game for Etienne in the passing game when he gets in space. I think he and Amari Rodgers will combine for 250-plus total yards, including at least two or three big plays that prove to be game-breaking.
Giving up big plays and big totals to those two guys will be backbreakers, leading to the end of Ohio State’s season and allow Clemson to keep its stranglehold over this program.
Final score: Clemson 42, Ohio State 31
–Zack Carpenter
