Do Rankings Matter?: Taking a Look at Ohio State and Clemson’s Recruiting Numbers to See Who Has the Talent Edge

By Zack Carpenter and Matt Gutridge on December 31, 2020 at 9:00 pm
Justin Fields
Justin Fields – Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today
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Stars matter. Or maybe they don't.

It's a matter of perspective for some. For others, it's the most objective lens through which to view an actual on-field matchup.

When Ohio State and Clemson do battle on Friday night, they will do so with the No. 3- and No. 4-best rosters talent-wise in the nation according to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. On that list, Ohio State (with 85 players) holds a fairly firm lead in both major categories over Clemson (82 players):

Total points
  • Ohio State: 976.48
  • Clemson: 915.57
Average player rating
  • Ohio State: 92.89
  • Clemson: 90.59

That's where the Buckeyes and Tigers match up across the board in totality. But we dove into the numbers to give a side-by-side comparison of where the two rosters – at least the projected starters – stand when looking at matchups on either side of the ball:

  • Ohio State offense vs. Clemson defense
  • Clemson offense vs. Ohio State defense.

Ohio State offense vs. Clemson defense

PROJECTED DEFENSIVE / OFFENSIVE STARTERS WITH RECRUITING RANKINGS
       
Clemson
 
       
OHIO STATE                     
 
POSITION PLAYER COMP. RATING OVERALL RANKING POSITION PLAYER COMP. RATING OVERALL RANKING
DE KJ HENRY .9928 14 (3 WDE) LT THAYER MUNFORD .8985 285 (28 OT)
DT TYLER DAVIS .9401 137 (12 DT) LG HARRY MILLER .9845 30 (2 OC)
DT BRYAN BRESEE .9995 1 (1 DT) C JOSH MYERS .9757 53 (2 OG)
DE MYLES MURPHY .9965 7 (1 SDE) RG WYATT DAVIS .9876 24 (1 OG)
SLB/NB MIKE JONES JR. .9186 210 (15 OLB) RT NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE .9963 7 (1 OT)
MLB JAMES SKALSKI .8569 680 (44 OLB) RB MASTER TEAGUE .9132 228 (11 RB)
WLB BAYLON SPECTOR .8610 609 (45 S) TE LUKE FARRELL .9233 191 (7 TE)
CB DERION KENDRICK .9855 26 (4 WR) WR GARRETT WILSON .9922 20 (2 WR)
SS LANNDEN ZANDERS .8648 781 (61 S) QB JUSTIN FIELDS .9998 2 (1 DUAL)
FS NOLAN TURNER .7999 N/A WR CHRIS OLAVE .8875 399 (68 WR)
CB SHERIDAN JONES .9429 130 (15 CB) WR JAMESON WILLIAMS .9404 82 (13 WR)
               
  AVERAGE .9231 260 (20) AVERAGE   .9545 120 (12)
NUMBER OF OFFENSIVE PLAYERS RECRUITED PER POSITION
Clemson
         
Ohio State
POSITION NO. OF PLAYERS AVG RATING   POSITION NO. OF PLAYERS NO. OF PLAYERS
OT 7 .9035   OT 8 .9307
OG/OC 8 .8957   OG/OC 5 .9499
TE 4 .8740   TE 3 .9121
RB 6 .9110   RB 6 .9323
WR 9 .9540   WR 12 .9458
ATH 1 .9492   ATH 5 .9137
QB 5 .9555   QB 5 .9485
             
TOTAL 40 .9191   TOTAL 44 .9360

Five Things: Ohio State Offense vs. Clemson Defense

  1. Overall, Ohio State's offense is 321 points better than Clemson's offense.
  2. The Buckeyes' passing game (QB, WRs) has an average of 95.50 per player, a mark much better than the Tigers' 89.83 in the secondary. 
  3. In the trenches, Clemson's defensive linemen come in with a 98.22 average compared to Ohio State's average of 96.85.
  4. Clemson's Bryan Bresee (.9995) is the highest rated defensive player on either team.
  5. Justin Fields (.9998) is the highest rated player on the Buckeyes' roster. 

Recruiting battles

These two programs have been battling for a lot of the same players on the recruiting trail for the past five-plus years, and there's no sign of that slowing down at any point this decade. Not if both schools continue on their upward trajectory they're in now. The latest battle, won by Ohio State, was getting a flip from Jordan Hancock, the nation's No. 4 cornerback in the 2021 class.

In looking at these two position groups, the two biggest recruiting battles between the Buckeyes and Tigers were split down the middle.

Five-star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee visited Columbus in the summer leading up to his freshman year and camped with the Buckeyes before receiving an offer that day. He subsequently visited again for games in October 2017 and September 2018, putting Ohio State in his top six in November 2018 with half of the Crystal Ball predictions giving the Buckeyes the win. 

Those three visits, however, gave way to Clemson emerging with major momentum over the next few months, and he committed in April 2019.

On the other side of the trenches, Georgia's sixth-ranked prospect in the 2018 class, Harry Miller, was highly sought after by both teams, which each made the cut on his final five. Clemson's offensive line coach Robbie Caldwell and offensive coordinator Tony Elliott made great in-roads with Miller. They continued making a push for him after he committed to the Buckeyes when Urban Meyer was put on administrative leave.

But Greg Studrawa and Co. kept Miller locked into the class, and he will likely go up against Bresee plenty of times in a key matchup that could be an X-factor in determining who moves onto to Tampa.

Summary

Ohio State's offense has a clear edge in average player rating over Clemson's defense, and the Buckeyes have an overwhelming advantage in the average ranking, both overall and by position.

While Ohio State has an impressive array of players along the trenches with four of the five starters ranked inside the top 55 overall and top-two at their positions, Clemson counters by sending three players to the defensive line who ranked in the top 15 overall and top three at their position.

As Dan Hope wrote on Thursday, the battle in the trenches is likely where Friday's game will be won, and the recruiting rankings bare out that it's an enticing matchup across the board talent-wise.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE / DEFENSIVE STARTERS WITH RECRUITING RANKINGS
       
Clemson
 
       
OHIO STATE                     
 
POSITION PLAYER COMP. RATING OVERALL RANKING POSITION PLAYER COMP. RATING OVERALL RANKING
LT JACKSON CARMAN .9894 17 (2 OT) DE JONATHON COOPER .9811 33 (3 WDE)
LG MATT BOCKHORST .9099 240 (17 OG) DT HASKELL GARRETT .9678 68 (6 DT)
C CADE STEWART .8025 2021 (163 OT) DT TOMMY TOGIAI .9721 55 (3 DT)
RG WILL PUTNAM .9555 101 (5 OG) DE TYREKE SMITH .9816 34 (4 WDE)
RT JORDAN McFADDEN .8601 819 (66 OT) SLB/DB/DE BARON BROWNING .9940 11 (1 OLB)
RB TRAVIS ETIENNE .9171 213 (15 RB) MLB TUF BORLAND .8933 324 (22 OLB)
TE BRADEN GALLOWAY .8585 858 (41 TE) WLB/CB PETE WERNER .8994 277 (14 ILB)
WR CORNELL POWELL .9314 159 (30 WR) CB/S SHAUN WADE .9904 17 (2 CB)
QB TREVOR LAWRENCE .9999 1 (1 PRO) S MARCUS HOOKER .8701 640 (60 CB)
WR AMARI RODGERS .9453 117 (16 WR) S/CB MARCUS WILLIAMSON .9250 182 (24 CB)
WR EJ WILLIAMS .9682 69 (13 WR) CB/LB SEVYN BANKS .9166 221 (23 CB)
               
  AVERAGE .9216 420 (34)   AVERAGE .9447 169 (15)
NUMBER OF DEFENSIVE PLAYERS RECRUITED PER POSITION
Clemson
         
Ohio State
POSITION NO. OF PLAYERS AVG RATING   POSITION NO. OF PLAYERS AVG RATING
SDE 5 .9266   SDE 3 .9188
WDE 5 .9376   WDE 3 .9495
DT 7 .9417   DT 9* .9384
OLB 5 .9207   OLB 8 .9354
ILB 5 .9007   ILB 3 .9302
CB 6 .9623   CB 7 .9386
S 8 .8864   S 7 .9385
             
TOTAL 41 .9240   TOTAL 40 .9366

*Antwuan Jackson Jr. was in the 2018 class as a transfer.

Five Things: Clemson Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

  1. Overall, Ohio State's defense is 231 points better than Clemson's offense.
  2. The Tigers' passing game (QB, WRs) has an advantage over Ohio State's secondary, as Clemson's average player rating (96.12) is much higher than the Buckeyes' defensive backs (92.55).
  3. In the trenches, Ohio State's defensive linemen come in with a 97.57 average, a dominant number of Clemson's offensive line average of 90.35.
  4. Clemson's Trevor Lawrence (.9999) is the highest rated player on either team.
  5. Baron Browning (.9940) is the highest rated defensive player for the Buckeyes.

Recruiting battles

Jackson Carman. Just about every Ohio State fan reading this is well aware of what happened during his recruitment. Despite being only an hour and a half away from Ohio State's campus as a Fairfield native, Carman became arguably the biggest recruiting miss of Urban Meyer's seven-year tenure as the Buckeyes' head coach.

“Everybody was surprised. Everyone just assumed I was going to Ohio State,” Carman said during Fiesta Bowl media day in 2019. “Some people even thought I was already committed there, which I wasn't, for the record. I was never a commit. I never flipped from any school. I was making my decision late because I wanted to be sure of my decision, and then I told Clemson, I was like, ‘I’m seriously considering coming here.’ I guess they just assumed I was going to Ohio State. And then when I told them, they were like, ‘Whoa.’”

For the second consecutive year, Carman will square off with his home state team and a stout defensive line group.

Summary

Clearly, Clemson does a great job of finding some diamonds in the rough with two of its starting offensive linemen coming in at No. 2,021 overall and No. 819 overall. But those who follow the Tigers believe the offensive line is probably the weakest unit on the team, and the Buckeyes counter with a group of guys who were all blue-chip recruits – all four ranking in the top 70 overall and top six at their position.

Once again, the trenches are going to matter. A ton.

So is the Buckeyes' defensive backs battle against Clemson's three-headed attack of Rodgers, Williams and Powell, plus Etienne out of the backfield as his pass-catching skills are what make him dangerous. The OL vs. DL and QB/WR vs. DB discrepancies are substantial in the rankings and might be substantial on the field throughout the night.

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