It's here. Game night is upon us.
Tonight Ohio State kicks off the 2021 season in Minneapolis against a hyped Minnesota squad looking to spoil the debut of new starting quarterback C.J. Stroud, a retooled offensive line and a defense dead set on rebounding from an average 2020 despite replacing the entire linebacking corps.
Storylines abound for the Buckeyes and here to preview the action are 11W's own Dan Hope, Garrick Hodge and Johnny Ginter.
Let's get to it!
All eyes will be on C.J. Stroud as he makes his first collegiate start and will throw his first collegiate pass. What kind of performance do you expect from Stroud in his debut?
Dan: Simply put, I expect Stroud to show us why he was named Ohio State’s starting quarterback this season. Ryan Day seems confident that Stroud is the man for the job, and so do his receivers.
While I’m usually inclined to expect some growing pains from a first-time starter, Justin Fields and Dwayne Haskins were both spectacular in their debuts. Minnesota is a tougher opponent than they faced in their first games, but the Gophers didn’t have a great defense last year, and Ohio State’s wide receivers should get open plenty. As long as they do, I expect Stroud to make some big plays through the air and have an efficient performance in his first game as Ohio State’s starting quarterback.
Garrick: I think he will have a nice debut, something around 220 yards or so with a couple of touchdowns and an interception. Ohio State is going to put up yards against the Gophers, but I'm more convinced they'll get off the bus running Thursday night because 1). running plays might be called early to take pressure off of a quarterback making his first start and 2). Minnesota's rushing defense was subpar last year, allowing 207.1 yards on the ground per game in 2020. For context, the Gophers allowed 208.7 passing yards per contest. That said, those dynamic receivers are going to create enough separation to create big plays when Stroud inevitably decides to stretch the field.
Johnny: Stroud will be good! Suspiciously good! Good enough that the collective Buckeye newsmedia will write a bunch of fawning articles about the dude, which will ultimately be proven to be at least somewhat premature as he regresses in a game or two. But honestly, Stroud will probably throw for an extremely competent 250+ yards and let his receivers do the work.
While we know Stroud will guide the attack, which of Miyan Williams, Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson emerges to lead the charge in Week One seems a mystery. What’s your feeling on which guy leads the team in rushing Thursday night? What kind of carry distribution do you envision?
Johnny: This is probably one of the most interesting questions this fall. Henderson has the highest ceiling of the three, but I'm personally kind of rooting for Williams to go out and have the kind of performance that forces Ryan Day to keep giving him carries. This is probably Henderson's job eventually, but it'll be fun to see how it all shakes out in the meantime. For Thursday I expect to see a pretty even distribution of carries, assuming no one puts the ball on the ground.
Dan: I’ve been riding the Miyan Williams train for a few months now, so there’s no turning back now. I’m taking Williams to get the most carries and lead the Buckeyes in rushing on Thursday night. I expect Williams and Teague to split most of the carries against Minnesota, but I think Henderson will be in the rotation too, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Henderson ends up being one of Ohio State’s top two rushers on Thursday by virtue of breaking off a long run or two.
Garrick: I'm taking the coward's way out and saying Williams and Teague's workload will be about even, while I'll guess Henderson comes in as a third down back or a change-of-pace guy a few times. But since you asked, I'll say Williams has a big night for the Buckeyes with 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
The back seven, particularly the secondary, stands as the biggest question mark on the team in the eyes of most. Will the pass defense hold up versus the Gophers? Give us a guy that maybe didn’t see a ton of snaps last year that you’ll definitely have your eyes on.
Garrick: I don't know if this really counts, but Demario McCall. After making the transition to cornerback this year, McCall has gotten a decent amount of time with the first team in practice. Not that press interviews translate to on-field success, but when McCall spoke with the media earlier in fall camp, he seemed incredibly poised. OSU's coaching staff seems to believe in him. I'll be curious to see how much he sees the field Thursday, and if it's a significant amount of playing time, how he handles facing a veteran team like Minnesota with an experienced quarterback like Tanner Morgan. As for the pass defense itself, there's so much unknown with OSU it's hard to say. I believe Morgan is closer to the 2019 quarterback we saw have a breakout season than the version in 2020 that struggled. He'll surely take advantage of an inexperienced unit a couple of times, but I have a feeling the Buckeyes secondary will make a few plays of their own in what will be seen as a mixed-bag night from that unit.
Johnny: I think the secondary does... fine. Anyone expecting a total 180 from last season is probably hoping for too much. P.J. Fleck isn't a dummy, and will devote a ton of time towards attacking the Buckeyes deep. I know this isn't really an answer to your question, but the hell with it: after the Shaun Wade experience last season, I want to know if Sevyn Banks is actually CB 1.
Dan: I don’t think the pass defense will be perfect against Minnesota — I expect the Gophers to hit at least a couple big plays that make Ohio State fans groan and panic — but I’ll say the Buckeyes hold Minnesota to fewer than 240 passing yards and no more than two passing touchdowns. With an inexperienced group of linebackers facing Mohamed Ibrahim and Minnesota’s very experienced offensive line, I think this game will actually be a bigger test for the run defense.
Lathan Ransom drew a lot of praise from Ryan Day this offseason, so I’ll certainly be keeping an eye out for him on Thursday night. I’m interested to see if he gets the start at cover safety and how often he’s on the field, and I expect him to make some plays when he is in the game.
Of the receivers not named Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which one, if any, makes a splash on Thursday night? Over the course of the season, which one has the most impact?
Dan: Marvin Harrison Jr. is another player I’ve been a big believer in since the spring, so I’ve gotta go with him. I think he will be Ohio State’s fourth-leading receiver this season behind Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba, and I expect him to make multiple catches and have a positive impact as a blocker in his Buckeye debut on Thursday night.
Garrick: Uh, well, I think those three are going to get the lion's share of targets Thursday, and as mentioned above I think OSU is going to run the ball a lot, but if I have to pick one, Marvin Harrison Jr. for both questions. He's looked explosive from the limited amount of practice reporters were able to watch.
Johnny: I really, really like Marvin Harrison, Jr. and by the end of the year I think he'll be the heir apparent to Olave and Wilson.
Ohio State heads to Minneapolis as a 14-point favorite. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Johnny: I've got this one at 38-17, good guys. What I think will happen is that the offense will start slowly, but Stroud will settle down and give us a relaxing second half. What I want to happen is for Miyan Williams to rush for 400 yards. But I'll take the former if the latter isn't in the stars.
Dan: I expect this game to play out in similar fashion to Ohio State’s last Thursday night season opener against Indiana in 2017. I think Minnesota keeps it close for a half or at least a quarter, enough to give Ohio State fans a scare, before the Buckeyes ultimately pull away in the second half. While I think Minnesota will make some plays against Ohio State’s defense, I don’t think the Gophers will have much of an answer for the Buckeyes’ explosive offense.
I’ve got Ohio State winning and the over hitting with a final score of 49-24. As aforementioned, I’m expecting a strong showing from Stroud in his debut, so he’s my game MVP pick.
Garrick: They will cover, I predict a 45-28 Buckeyes win. Minnesota is experienced and an anticipated hostile crowd will let the Gophers hang around early, but the offensive firepower will be too much to handle for four quarters. Williams is my MVP for reasons outlined above.
