One could call this week’s game against Purdue a trap game for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have no excuse to look past the Boilermakers.
Yes, Ohio State’s next two games on the schedule are both against top-seven teams as the Buckeyes finish the regular season with games against Michigan State and Michigan. But the Buckeyes only need to look back to their last game against Purdue in 2018, when they were blown out 49-20 in West Lafayette, for a reminder of what could happen if they’re unprepared to play Jeff Brohm’s squad.
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| #19 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS |
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6-3 (4-2 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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3:30 P.M. – SATURDAY, NOV. 13 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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ABC WatchESPN |
Or they can just look at what’s happened each of the first two times this season that Purdue has played teams who were ranked in the top five when the Boilermakers played them. On Oct. 16, Purdue earned a 24-7 win over Iowa, who was ranked second in the country at the time. Then last week, Purdue defeated Michigan State 40-29 just four days after the Spartans were ranked third in the year’s first College Football Playoff rankings.
All of that, along with the Boilermakers now being ranked 19th in this week’s CFP rankings, should be enough to ensure Purdue has Ohio State’s full attention this week as the Buckeyes look to earn another November win and keep themselves in position to make the playoff.
“It just takes one game and you’re out,” Ryan Day said this week. “And this is another example of a team that beat Iowa, beat Michigan State last week … Really, really dangerous on offense and really good players, and so our guys understand that. They’re tied for first in the West … they’re playing for a chance to go to Indy. So they certainly have our attention. Very, very good players and a very good scheme.”
The Headlines
Can Purdue do it again?
The Boilermakers – who many are now calling the Spoilermakers – have a longstanding track record of upsetting highly ranked teams, and their reputation of knocking off top teams may be at an all-time high right now coming off of their second major upset win of the season.
Reasons to view Purdue as a serious threat entering this week’s game extend beyond just those two upset wins, as the Boilermakers have a 6-3 record for the season and are currently tied for the Big Ten West lead with a 4-2 conference record. They currently rank eighth in the country with 332.6 passing yards per game – though they rank 128th nationally with only 76.8 rushing yards per game – while their defense ranks 16th in points allowed per game (18.4) and 25th in yards allowed per game (328.7).
“We’re gonna get challenged in all three areas (offense, defense and special teams). They’re playing well,” Day said. “Obviously you’ve seen what they’ve done to some of the top five teams in the country, knocked some guys off. So they’re dangerous.”
Although Purdue was an underdog against Iowa and Michigan State, it’s not as if the Boilermakers’ success in either of those games was completely unforeseen, as Purdue has proved capable of quality play on both sides of the ball this season. The Boilermakers play aggressively on both sides of the ball, and winning the turnover battle and controlling time of possession has gone a long way toward pulling off those upsets.
“I think we're willing to take some chances against really good opponents that maybe others aren't. I think this year we've been better in all three segments of our team than we have in the past,” Brohm said this week. “I think that has helped us, and when we get in a rhythm and we're aggressive, we can do some good things. So I do think that we're not afraid of the challenge, and we look forward to really tough opponents and seeing how we match up.”
That said, beating Ohio State in Columbus would be an even bigger upset, as the Buckeyes have a different level of talent than the Spartans and Hawkeyes.
“This will be our biggest challenge to date, playing against this opponent at their venue,” Brohm said. “But this is really all we're focused on, and we're hopeful to get an opportunity to compete and hopefully figure out a way to get it to the fourth quarter and see if we can do something special.”
Revenge game
Ohio State shouldn’t need any extra motivation knowing that it needs to win the rest of its games to make the College Football Playoff, but it should have some this week nonetheless – or at least the Buckeyes’ fourth-, fifth- and sixth-year players should – because of what happened the last time they played the Boilermakers.
While the Buckeyes’ lineups for this year’s game will be almost entirely different than the ones that took the field in 2018 – Thayer Munford is the only starter from that game who’s still playing for Ohio State now – that loss is one that certainly still stings for the players who were on the team back then, as it kept Ohio State out of the CFP that year.
“Definitely, we gotta get right,” fourth-year cornerback Sevyn Banks said this week. “Obviously everybody knows that that was a big loss, or an unexpected loss really, in 2018.”
Everyone on Ohio State’s roster will be playing for their first-ever win over Purdue, as the Buckeyes have played the Boilermakers just once in the last seven seasons, with Ohio State’s last win over Purdue coming in 2013. And every Ohio State fan who watched that 2018 game will have some extra investment in seeing the Buckeyes beat the Boilermakers this year to avenge the loss from three seasons ago.
Rondale Moore led Purdue to a 49-20 win over Ohio State in the last game between the two teams in 2018.
Can the offense regain its stride?
Just a couple of weeks ago, Ohio State’s offense looked like a historically great offense, as the Buckeyes had topped 50 points in four straight games and 500 yards in six straight games. Ohio State’s offense hasn’t looked nearly so unstoppable in the last two weeks, however, as the Buckeyes scored just two offensive touchdowns in each of their nine-point wins over Penn State and Nebraska.
Although the Buckeyes still gained 961 total yards of offense between those two games, they scored touchdowns on just four of 25 total possessions, including just two touchdowns on nine trips to the red zone. They’ve struggled to finish off drives in large part because they’ve struggled to run the ball, averaging fewer than four yards per carry over their last two games.
That didn’t cost Ohio State a win in either of those games, as Noah Ruggles made four field goals for the Buckeyes in both games, but it could cost the Buckeyes as soon as this week if they can’t get back to scoring touchdowns on a more regular basis.
“You don’t win championships playing at our level kicking field goals,” Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson said this week. “Our field goal kicker’s been awesome and a lot of appreciation for him, but we gotta score touchdowns down the stretch.”
Given that Purdue’s defense is ranked in the top 25 nationally in both points and yards allowed per game, and ranks 14th nationally with only 185.3 passing yards allowed per game, Ohio State’s offense will need to execute better – particularly in the running game – to get back on track.
“The last two defenses we’ve played are excellent defenses, and we have another this week,” Day said. “If you’re not executing really, really well, they can make you look bad. And you have to own it. We have to understand that we have to execute better, and that’s just the bottom line. I think our guys understand that.”
Keep An Eye on These Guys
Purdue DE George Karlaftis
How well is George Karlaftis playing this season? So well that a CBS Sports mock draft published earlier this week projected that Karlaftis could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
At 6-foot-4 and 275 pounds, Karlaftis is a big defensive end who plays with excellent power as both a pass-rusher and a run stopper while also possessing the quickness and explosiveness to beat offensive tackles with his speed. Pro Football Focus credits Karlaftis with 43 total quarterback pressures and 20 defensive stops this season; in the box scores, he’s been credited with 29 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles and a 56-yard fumble return for a touchdown.
Day gave glowing praise of Karlaftis this week, describing him as “probably the best defensive player we’ve played all year” and “one of the best defensive ends in the country.”
“This is by far the strongest guy we’ve played,” Day said. “He’s very good, he’s up the field, he’s powerful.”
Ohio State left tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere said Karlaftis is “having probably an All-American season,” while right tackle Dawand Jones – who said he thinks going up against Jack Sawyer in practice has helped him prepare for Karlaftis – said Karlaftis’ combination of power and speed and his spin move are what set him apart from other defensive ends, so they’re know they’re in for one of their biggest challenges of the year this week.
“He’s a very strong, very athletic, really good pass-rusher and he presses the run well,” Petit-Frere said. “Just all-around, a very solid player, great player.”
Purdue WR David Bell
The Boilermakers also have a superstar on the other side of the ball in Bell, who has 1,003 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 64 catches this season and ranks fourth in the entire country with 125.4 receiving yards per game.
Bell has been the star of both of Purdue’s big upset wins, catching 11 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown against Iowa and another 11 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown against Michigan State.
Day believes Bell will be one of the two best wide receivers Ohio State has faced this season along with Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, so the Buckeyes’ defense is going to have to game plan to stop him.
“They do a good job moving him around. He’s very smooth, he’s got a really good catch radius. Strong with the ball in his hands,” Day said. “So yeah, we’re gonna have to have a good plan, know exactly where he’s at. You’re not gonna stop him for nothing, but you can’t let him go crazy either, and that’s all the things we’ve been working on this week.”
Bell, who was also recruited by Ohio State before ultimately choosing to stay in his home state and play for the Boilermakers, has a well-demonstrated ability to make contested catch at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds as well as the speed to make big plays down the field, so the Buckeyes’ defenders know they’ll need to be on top of their game in pass coverage.
“He can go up and make a play, he can get open, he can really do everything, he’s fast,” Ohio State linebacker Steele Chambers. “So we just gotta focus on stopping him.”
Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell
O’Connell has completed 71.6 percent of his passing attempts this season, the fifth-highest completion percentage in the Football Bowl Subdivision. He’s been especially accurate over the last month, completing at least 74 percent of his passes in all of Purdue’s last four games, highlighted by a 536-yard, three-touchdown game against Michigan State last week.
Despite starting his Purdue career as a walk-on and beginning the season as Jack Plummer’s backup, O’Connell has emerged as one of the nation’s most efficient passers and led the Boilermakers to a 3-2 record since taking over as their starter in their fifth game of the season.
“I think Aidan is really playing at a high level right now,” Brohm said. “He's in a rhythm. He's always done a great job with playing with poise and composure and not letting anything rattle him, and that's always been a strength of his since we started playing him.”
Because Purdue has had minimal success running the ball, Ohio State can expect O’Connell to throw the ball repeatedly on Saturday, which will put the Buckeyes’ pass defense to the test.
Game Week Talk
“They offered me a walk-on, and I just took that personally … Since I’ve seen the game on our schedule, it’s been a major topic for me.”– Dawand Jones
As an Indiana native, Jones said “it definitely lit me up” that he did not receive a scholarship offer from Purdue out of high school, so he’s been looking forward to the chance to play the Boilermakers for the last three years.
“In order to beat a team like that you've got to maybe do some things that they haven't seen before, and you've got to really apply some pressure, and you've got to take them out of their comfort zone.”– Jeff Brohm
Brohm usually has some trick plays up his sleeve for big games – they ran one for a touchdown last week – and based on this comment, it sounds like the Boilermakers will be prepared to unveil some new wrinkles again this week. Brohm acknowledges that there’s risks with that strategy, but he thinks it’s necessary against a team like the Buckeyes “because they're very, very talented.”
“They’re the most talented group of guys we’ve seen … It’s going to be a great challenge for us, and we can’t wait for Saturday.”– George Karlaftis
Unlike some Ohio State opponents who have said they don’t prepare for the Buckeyes any differently than any other team, Purdue’s coaches and players have openly acknowledged that playing Ohio State will be a different challenge than any other game they’ve played this season.
| Ohio State | Pos | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| C.J. STROUD | QB | AIDAN O’CONNELL |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | KING DOERUE |
| CHRIS OLAVE | WR | DAVID BELL |
| GARRETT WILSON | WR | MILTON WRIGHT |
| JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA | WR | JACKSON ANTHROP |
| JEREMY RUCKERT | TE | PAYNE DURHAM |
| NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE | LT | GREG LONG |
| THAYER MUNFORD | LG | SPENCER HOLSTEGE |
| LUKE WYPLER | C | GUS HARTWIG |
| PARIS JOHNSON JR. | RG | TYLER WITT |
| DAWAND JONES | RT | ERIC MILLER |
| DEFENSE | ||
| ZACH HARRISON | DE | GEORGE KARLAFTIS |
| TYREKE SMITH | DE | KYDRAN JENKINS |
| HASKELL GARRETT | DT | BRANSON DEEN |
| ANTWUAN JACKSON | NT | LAWRENCE JOHNSON |
| STEELE CHAMBERS | LB | JAYLAN ALEXANDER |
| CODY SIMON | LB | KIEREN DOUGLAS |
| RONNIE HICKMAN | BLT/LB | JALEN GRAHAM |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | DEDRICK MACKEY |
| SEVYN BANKS | CB | JAMARI BROWN |
| BRYSON SHAW | S | MARVIN GRANT |
| MARCUS WILLIAMSON | S | CAM ALLEN |
Get Smart
- Ohio State has a 40-15-2 all-time record against Purdue, but the Boilermakers have won three of their last six games against the Buckeyes.
- This year’s game is the first contest between Ohio State and Purdue at Ohio Stadium since 2012, when Kenny Guiton led the Buckeyes to a 29-22 comeback win over the Boilermakers.
- Ohio State hasn’t lost back-to-back games against any Big Ten opponent since 2003 and 2004, when the Buckeyes lost two games in a row against Wisconsin.
- Ohio State has won 27 consecutive games against Big Ten opponents (including Big Ten Championship Games) since its 2018 loss to Purdue.
- Eleven players on Purdue’s roster are from Ohio, including starting linebacker Kieren Douglas and starting right tackle Eric Miller. Ohio State’s roster includes four players from Indiana: Jones, fellow offensive linemen Josh Fryar and Zen Michalski and safety/linebacker Craig Young.
- Ohio State’s status report of unavailable players is expected to be released at 1:30 p.m. Saturday.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -21, O/U 62.5
While Vegas believed a Purdue win over Michigan State was very possible last week, as the Boilermakers closed as just 2.5-point underdogs against the higher-ranked Spartans, bettors don’t seem to be buying another Purdue upset, as the spread opened at 19 points and had increased to a full three touchdowns as of Friday morning.
Still, no one should be surprised if Ohio State has to battle for another win this week. Purdue will give Ohio State’s passing defense one of its toughest tests of the season to date, while its defense is good enough to potentially make things challenging for the Buckeyes’ offense for the third week in a row.
Ohio State’s offense is surely motivated to get back into a groove and put a bigger number on the scoreboard this week, and Purdue’s lack of an effective running game could ultimately doom the Boilermakers – who are averaging only 24.8 points per game this season, having scored only 13 points in four of their nine games – if Ohio State’s passing defense can keep O’Connell and Bell in check.
Most of our staff members, though, see this game being competitive rather than a blowout; of our 14 staffers who submit score predictions each week, only three see the Buckeyes winning by more than 21 points.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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38 | 21 |
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