As expected, Ohio State again ranked No. 4 in the latest version of the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of a two-game gauntlet to close its regular season slate.
First up is No. 7 Michigan State this Saturday in the Shoe followed by a trip to Ann Arbor where the Buckeyes will face current-No.6 ranked Michigan.
Ryan Day met with the media yesterday afternoon and when it comes to facing the Spartans, he knows what it looks like when Michigan State is playing its best football.
"It's complimentary... They don't give you a lot of "x" (Big) plays... they try to create turnovers... and they try to control the game on offense running the football."– Ryan Day on Michigan State
I'm guessing pretty much every really good football team counts on those defensive traits in particular - limiting big plays and creating turnovers - in the quest to stack Ws.
That said, the stats indicate Michigan State is terrible at limiting big plays through the air, decent at doing so against the run, and they're creating turnovers at a fairly average pace.
| METRIC | 10+ YARDS | NATL RANK | 20+ YARDS | NATL RANK | 30+ YARDS | NATL RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPP LONG SCRIMMAGE PLAYS | 147 | 88 | 50 | 90 | 18 | 46 |
| OPP LONG RUSHING PLAYS | 27 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 4 | 40 |
| OPP LONG PASSING PLAYS | 120 | 129 | 39 | 107 | 14 | 56 |
In its 37-33 win over Michigan a few weeks ago, Sparty surrendered 406 passing yards to a Wolverine offense averaging 217 passing yards per game, including a 93-yard touchdown pass to Andrel Anthony and a 43-yard connection from Cade McNamara to Mike Sainristil. The Spartans did snag two interceptions but I doubt head coach Mel Tucker felt too great about his secondary.
On the season, his pass defense ranks dead last in the country giving up 329 yards per game and giving up big plays is a huge reason for the statistical pain. Michigan State ranks 107th nationally in giving up pass plays of 20+ yards (39) and they've not yet seen a passing attack like Ohio State's.
The Buckeyes enter Saturday's matchup ranked 5th nationally with 143 pass plays of at least 10 yards and 6th in pass plays of at least 20 yards (52).
If you're looking for Ohio State to run the ball more, this likely ain't the week. And that sound you hear is probably C.J. Stroud and his three elite receivers licking their chops.
| FUM REC | NATL RANK | INT | NATL RANK | TOT TO GAINED | NATL RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 19 | 8 | 64 | 16 | 31 |
Knowing Ohio State will likely air it out, as Day has done against far better pass defenses so far this year, the Spartans will hope to cash in on Buckeye mistakes either through the air or on the ground.
The Spartans slot a respectable 31st in total turnovers gained (16) while their eight interceptions sits in the middle of the pack (64th).
Meanwhile, Ohio State has done an incredible job taking care of the ball, especially when you consider its primary ball handers, Stroud and running back TreVeyon Henderson, had virtually zero and absolutely zero collegiate experience coming into the season.
The Buckeyes check in at No. 9 nationally in turnovers lost with eight. Five of those have come via Stroud interceptions on 311 pass attempts.
Whether or not Michigan State's defense can come up with a completely out-of-character performance defending the pass while forcing a handful of turnovers against a team that isn't very turnover prone will go a long way in deciding Saturday's outcome. Advantage, Ohio State.
