The Graduate

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Jeremy Ruckert, Haskell Garrett, Thayer Munford and Tyreke Smith should all hear their names called before the draft concludes on Saturday. You can pick only one. Choose your fighter.

But first, let's remember this article from one year ago this week. Edited highlights:

• OLAVE STAYED TO GET STRONGER, GET HIS DEGREE AND ANOTHER SHOT AT A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
• If there’s one area of (Olave's) game that can be criticized, it’s that he can be outmuscled by defenders at times and has had some issues holding on to the ball, as he had four fumbles last season, two of which were taken away by the other team.
• “He is an excellent person, an excellent big brother, an excellent everything. Chris is just big bro to everybody. He’s the oldest in the room, look out for everybody, make sure everybody’s doing good,” (Jameson) Williams said.

A year later - no additional national title shot, no Jameson Williams to continue mentoring, college degree acquired. As for getting stronger, Olave weighed four pounds lighter at his pro day (185) than he did when that article ran. He enters the draft one inch taller and 15 lbs lighter than the average NFL receiver.

Weight probably isn't the best indicator for success - it can always be gained or lost. He dropped just 5 passes on 101 targets as a senior and didn't drop a single endzone ball in his college career. So no, Olave didn't seem to have any trouble securing the football in 2021.

Olave is my pick for the simple fact that he unlocked the most reliable predictor for NFL success at the Columbus NFL factory: When he's taken off the board tomorrow night, he will become the 11th Buckeye this century to both exhaust collegiate eligibility and get taken in the 1st round.

It's not the weight he didn't gain or the ring he didn't get, it's the extra year he put in, combined with Day 1 talent he already had prior to his decision to stay one more year. Ohio State's 1st round team dads have been one of the NFL's surest bets for decades.

Olave is going to be sticky in the NFL because the combination of elite skill at the position and the paternal aura he enhanced by staying and mentoring other elite receivers will be prove to be incredibly valuable by the time his second contract terms are being determined.

Some guys have the skill, others have the presence. Olave has both. A locker room guy who is also a big-play guy - it's the sport's most unassailable and coveted combination.

To support my Olave pick and this theory, let's remember the ten other Buckeyes from the current century who played senior seasons before being taken in the 1st round. They have gone a perfect 10/10 in exceeding 3.7 active seasons in the league, the average career length for NFL 1st round picks.

Ahmed Plummer stayed for his senior season to play for what was destined to be a rebuilding effort.

Ahmed Plummer

• Peers: Deltha O'Neal (9 years) and Rashard Anderson (2 years) were the other 1st round CBs
• Senior season: Captain, OSU MVP, Bo Rein Most Inspirational Player, Galbraith Award/team scholar, Artie Chonko/DB of the Year, Bill Willis/Defensive POY, Thorpe Semifinalist, Academic AA, 3rd team All-B1G
• Team Dad: Yes

Plummer was immediately thrust into action and became the team's best corner during his rookie contract. The 49ers saw him as the foundation of their secondary and signed him to a five-year extension in 2004 that he was unable to complete due to debilitating injuries which ended his career.

He would have played for at least a decade otherwise. Plummer still finished his career with 12 INTs, 71 PBUs, 317 tackles and a touchdown.

Will Smith celebrating his sack that went for a safety against Tampa Bay in 2007 | © John Rowland, LDA

Will Smith

• Peers: Kenechi Udeze (4 years) Jason Babin (15 years) were the other 1st round DEs
• Senior season: Captain, 1st team AA, 1st team All-B1G, Hendricks finalist, B1G DPOY, B1G DLOY
• Team Dad: Yes, though the 2003 Buckeyes were extremely dad-heavy

Super Bowl champion, Pro Bowler, Saints Ring of Honor, Saints Hall of Fame, 459 tackles, 67.5 sacks, 7 fumble recoveries and two interceptions. And gone way too soon.

Michael Jenkins in 2003. When you're beating a Purdue defensive back, it always looks like Holy Buckeye | © Eric Albrecht, USAT

Michael Jenkins

• Peers: Larry Fitzgerald (17 years) Roy Williams (8 years) Reggie Williams (5 years) Lee Evans (8 years) Michael Clayton (8 years) Rashaun Woods (2 years) were the other 1st round WRs
• Senior season: Captain, OSU MVP, Broke OSU record for receiving yards, B1G Honorable Mention
• Team Dad: Yes, see Will Smith #2003dadfest

Jenkins finished his career with 354 receptions for 4,827 yards and 25 touchdowns. Steady from start to finish.

AJ Hawk

• Peers: Ernie Sims (8 years) Chad Greenway (11 years) Carpenter (below) Manny Lawson (10 years) were the other 1st round LBs
• Senior season: Captain, MVP, Unanimous AA, Lombardi winner, Lambert winner, B1G DPOY
• Team Dad: Yes, defensively

Green Bay's all-time leader in tackles (947) also earned a Super Bowl ring. This wasn't really a stretch - Hawk was considered a sure thing in the draft - but the point is he was a unanimous AA as a junior, stayed for his senior season, was the first LB off the board and spent over a decade in the league.

Bobby Carpenter sacking Drew Tate for a massive loss and a hilarious 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty as a senior in 2005.

Bobby Carpenter

• Peers: Hawk (above) Ernie Sims (8 years) Chad Greenway (11 years) Manny Lawson (10 years) were the other 1st round LBs
• Senior season: 2nd team All-B1G. Individual LB awards are hard to come by when you're lined up next to the Lombardi winner
• Team Dad: If Hawk was the defense's dad, Carp was its cool stepdad

Carpenter played in every game as a freshman, making him one of those true four-year guys - as opposed to Olave, whom most of us were introduced to right when Michigan was abruptly finding out about him.

Staying for his senior season and fracturing his leg on the first pay of the Michigan game is one of those classic cautionary tales you wish didn't exist. Carpenter finished his career with 167 tackles, 3.5 sacks, a recovered fumble, one interception and a touchdown.

Mangold being honored by the Jets at Metlife Stadium on November 14, 2021 | © Chris Pedota, USAT

Nick Mangold

• Peers: None. Mangold was the only Center taken in the 1st round, and the only one in that draft to make a Pro Bowl (he made 7)
• Senior season: Captain, 1st team AA, 2nd team All-B1G (1st team was Minnesota's Greg Eslinger, who was taken in the 6th round)
• Team Dad: Yes #2005dadfest

The greatest All American of all time showed up on the NFL Hall of Fame ballot last fall, which was his first year of eligibility. He's arguably the most beloved NY Jet of the current century.

Jenkins tackles Ezekiel Elliott during a 2019 at Lincoln Financial Field. } ©James Lang, USAT

Malcolm Jenkins

• Peers: Vontae Davis (10 years) was the other 1st round corner
• Senior season: Captain, consensus 1st team AA, 1st team all-B1G, Thorpe winner
• Team Dad: Marcus Freeman, James Laurinaitis, Brian Robiskie...and Jenkins #somanydads

Jenkins is the only player in NFL history to beat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in Super Bowls. He retired last month, finishing his career with 1,044 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 20 forced fumbles, 11 fumble recoveries, 21 interceptions and eight touchdowns.

Heyward being introduced before playing the Buffalo Bills at Heinz Field. | © Philip G. Pavely, USAT

Cameron Heyward

• Peers: J.J. Watt (11, active) Ryan Kerrigan (11, active) Robert Quinn (11, active) Adrian Clayborn (10 years) Cameron Jordan (11, active) and Muhammad Wilkerson (8 years) were the other 1st round DEs. Quinn and Heyward have both played significant time as non-DEs
• Senior season: Captain, 1st team all-B1G, AA, Bill Willis award, Lombardi semifinalist, Lott quarterfinalist
• Team Dad: Maximum dad

Ohio State's 69th 1st round draft pick easily could have left following the 2010 Rose Bowl season, where he would drafted among Brandon Graham, Derrick Morgan and Jerry Hughes as 1st round DEs instead of multiple future Hall of Famers.

Instead, he was Jim Tressel's final team's dad. And like Olave, that skill/wisdom combination is unassailable and coveted by NFL teams.

Decker celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Seattle Seahawks in January. | ©Joe Nicholson, USAT

Taylor Decker

• Peers: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil and Germain Ifedi (all 6, active) were the other 1st round OTs
• Senior season: 1st team AA, 1st team all-B1G, Rimington-Pace winner
• Team Dad: Co-dads with Joshua Perry

Returned for his senior season to get a Buckeye Grove tree and intern (again) at the Columbus Zoo. He's statistically the NFL's 9th best LT entering his seventh season, playing for one of the NFL's worst franchises.

The Giants really like Price's smarts and power.

Billy Price

• Peers: Frank Ragnow (4, active) was the other 1st round C taken
• Senior season: Captain, moved from G to C, Rimington-Pace winner, Rimington winner, Outland semifinalist, consensus AA, 1st team all-B1G
• Team Dad: He and Tyquan Lewis would have been dads on any other team that didn't have J.T. Barrett

Price's career has been slowed by injuries, but he enters the fifth year of his career having started 34 games, including 15 last season with the Giants. He's not quite finished yet.

You can scour that list and find guys whose 40 times weren't as fast as the analytics nerds would have preferred. You'll see tweeners who don't have a perfectly defined position. One of these Buckeyes spent an entire afternoon starring in a Khalil Mack snuff film.

They all exceeded the career norms for NFL 1st rounders, despite some sub-optimal circumstances.

Each of them had elite talent combined with seasoned leadership skill, which is what all organizations - NFL or otherwise - seek from their talent. And while all of this year's draftable Buckeyes could stick in the league for awhile, the safest bet of the group is the one who stayed an extra year when he didn't need to.

Scary Terry tried to tell you when he was a freshman. I'm telling you now. Bet on CO2.