Unfamiliar territory awaits Ohio State next weekend.
Following a five-game homestand to start the 2022 season, the Buckeyes will hit the road for the first time all year to meet Michigan State in a matchup that seemed much more threatening a month ago.
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MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS |
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2-3 ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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4 P.M. – SATURDAY, OCT. 8 SPARTAN STADIUM EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN |
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Mel Tucker’s third Spartan roster ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP Top 25 but saw its stock submarine on the heels of three losses in the first five games. The Buckeyes are trending in the opposite direction and still aren’t that far removed from last year’s 56-7 drubbing of the Spartans late last November – when MSU sat at No. 7 in the country.
Here are five things to know about Michigan State, which is amid its worst stretch under Tucker as it prepares to host the No. 3 team in the nation in East Lansing.
Three straight losses
Suffice to say, the Spartans are reeling ahead of what should be their stiffest challenge of the season so far.
After starting 2-0 against MAC opponents, Michigan State lost its next three games in a row to Power-5 competitors, which gives Tucker his first three-game skid since taking over as head coach of the program in 2020. With consecutive defeats to Washington, Minnesota and Maryland, Michigan State has suffered three straight losses to then-unranked opponents for the first time since 2016 – Michigan State’s worst season in the last 40 years.
While it wasn’t an inspiring sign, Michigan State’s 39-28 loss to Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies in Week 3 wasn’t the be-all-end-all for the Spartans, as long as they started strong in Big Ten play. But that didn’t happen, as MSU was blown out by a 27-point margin in the conference opener against Minnesota.
Maryland entered this past weekend’s matchup as more than a touchdown favorite against Michigan State, and it covered that spread with ease in a 27-13 win over Tucker and company.
Now the Spartans take on the top team in the Big Ten and the No. 3 team in the country as last year’s breakout success and 11-2 finish continues to feel like a fluke for a Michigan State team that continues heading in the wrong direction.
Bad on both sides of the ball
So, what’s gone wrong with the Spartans so far? Well, just about everything.
Michigan State ranks no higher than ninth in the Big Ten and 54th in the country in just about every major offensive and defensive statistical category as its had plenty of problems on both sides of the ball.
Michigan State's stats on both sides of the ball through five games are...not good. pic.twitter.com/XYqqJ5FIXO
— Griffin Strom (@GriffinStrom3) October 2, 2022
On offense, the Spartans’ 27 points per game rank 88th in the nation and 11th in the Big Ten, and its 370.4 yards per game are 92nd in America. On the ground, where Michigan State had immense success with Kenneth Walker a year ago, the Spartans are 99th in FBS football and 12th in the conference with an average of 127.4 yards per game.
Defensively, Michigan State’s giving up 411.8 yards per game, which is No. 100 in the country and No. 12 in the league. Worst of all is its passing defense, which ranks No. 115 with an average allowance of 275 yards per game. That’s the second-highest amount of all Big Ten teams through five weeks.
As convenient as it would be for the coaching staff if Michigan State was only struggling in a few areas, the issues are widespread and across the board thus far.
Particularly poor against the pass
Michigan State’s defensive shortcomings have been especially pronounced against the pass this season, which doesn’t bode well entering a game against the Buckeyes during the Day era.
The Spartans' 115th-ranked pass defense is actually an improvement on last season when MSU was dead last in the nation in that category, but that isn’t exactly something to get excited about if you’re a Michigan State fan. In last year’s matchup, Michigan State surrendered 449 yards and six scores to C.J. Stroud and the Ohio State pass attack, which will strive to perform similarly on Saturday.
Penix lit the Spartans up for 397 yards and four scores in Week 3. Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan completed all but three passes during a 268-yard, three-touchdown effort the following week. For Maryland, Taulia Tagovailoa racked up 314 yards through the air and connected on 78 percent of his pass attempts against Michigan State.
While all three of those quarterbacks are competent and experienced in their own right, they aren’t Stroud, nor did they have the same caliber of weapons that the Buckeye quarterback will have at his disposal on Saturday – even if Ohio State remains without Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Step back for Payton Thorne
Throughout Michigan State’s stellar 11-2 campaign in 2021, Payton Thorne emerged as one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten, finishing the season with 3,232 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 148.0 passer rating – all of which being top-five marks in the conference.
So far in 2022, Thorne hasn’t enjoyed the same success.
While only three Big Ten passers have thrown more than Thorne’s eight touchdown passes through five games, his six interceptions are the most in the conference. Thorne’s 1,121 passing yards are ninth-best in the league, and his 131.2 passer rating is No. 10 in the Big Ten.
INTERCEPTION @irvsland
— Washington Football (@UW_Football) September 18, 2022
ABC
https://t.co/evPDp2ZLuD#NoLimits #PurpleReign pic.twitter.com/BHLeu99IAh
Thorne snapped a four-game interception streak to start the year this past weekend, but his 221-yard, one-score performance didn’t in a loss didn’t blow anybody away. Perhaps Thorne gained a little bit of steam in Big Ten play with a better effort against Maryland, but he’ll face the No. 7-ranked pass defense in the country in Ohio State this weekend.
Hasn’t beaten OSU at home this century
Despite the dangers of a hostile environment for the Buckeyes, an upset win for Michigan State would be the program’s first home victory over Ohio State since 1999.
The Spartans have lost eight straight contests to Ohio State in East Lansing, with all but two coming by a double-digit margin. Of course, Michigan State has enjoyed a few big wins over the Buckeyes during that stretch, effectively ending Ohio State’s national championship aspirations in both 2013 and 2015. But both of those games took place outside of Spartan Stadium.
But Michigan State hasn’t gotten it done against Ohio State in any location since its 17-14 win in Columbus seven years ago, and it won’t be favored to do so back home on Saturday. Ohio State has six straight wins over the Spartans in the all-time series, with a 216-38 combined score in the last five meetings.
