After a week off, Buckeye football is back on the docket tomorrow as Ohio State welcomes the offensively-challenged Iowa Hawkeyes to Columbus for a Big Noon showdown.
Of course, Iowa does boast a highly-rated defense so all eyes will be on how Ryan Day's offense attacks the Hawkeyes. This weekend could also bring the return of wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, in some capacity, after indications out of the WHAC signaled he's been practicing.
With the return of Buckeye football just one sunrise away, the 11W Roundtable welcomes Dan Hope, Matt Gutridge and Josh Poloha to break down tomorrow's matchup.
It feels like all players, coaches and fans deemed the open week a much-needed and well-timed break for the Buckeyes. That said, any chance it'll be hard for to Ohio State to come out firing against a big time underdog in a noon setting after the layoff? On one hand, they are college kids. On the other, Ryan Day seems to have gotten through to his guys about competitive stamina and the need to bring it every week.
Dan: All indications from Ohio State’s coaches and players this week have been that they’re treating this like a big game and that the Buckeyes are as focused and determined as they’ve been all year. While most of us are expecting an easy win for Ohio State, the Buckeyes seem to be approaching it like they need to play their best football of the season. The bye week doesn’t seem to have distracted the Buckeyes from their goals, as Luke Wypler said Ohio State’s practice on Tuesday was “probably one of the best practices we've had in my time here off a bye week.” I think the Buckeyes will be hungry for another statement performance on Saturday, and I think their play will reflect that.
Matt: Day coached teams had bye weeks in 2019 and 2021, how did they do? The '19 team beat Northwestern 52-3 and the '21 squad smacked Indiana around with a 54-7 win. Yes, I expect the team to come out firing.
Josh: Ohio State's offense might be a bit rusty during the first drive but I'm not worried about anything after that. Day has said time and time again that the Buckeyes have to be ready to be great week in and week out, no matter the opponent. I know he'll have his guys ready for their first game in two weeks, even if it is a noon game. A conference game is significant, no matter who the opponent might be.
Iowa boasts the country's No. 3 ranked pass defense, giving up just 154 yards per game on the strength of a national-best 4.57 yards per attempt allowed. The Hawkeyes have allowed just three touchdown passes against seven interceptions. Any chance Iowa slows down C.J. Stroud and the Ohio State passing attack? What kind of day do you anticipate from Stroud?
Josh: Stroud might not be as dominant as he had been the first six games of the season, but I don't see a way that Iowa will be able to completely stop an Ohio State passing attack that features so many different weapons all over the field. That said, it will be interesting to see how Stroud and co. perform against a very good defense, or at least one that's supposed to be very good on paper. It's a big test for Day's offense through the air.
Dan: I think Iowa can slow Ohio State's passing offense down – in the sense that I don't see Stroud throwing for six touchdowns against the Hawkeyes – but that doesn’t mean the Hawkeyes will shut it down. I don’t expect Saturday to be the most prolific day for the Buckeyes’ passing offense, but I still expect them to make their share of big plays. Ohio State’s passing offense is too explosive for anyone to contain completely.
Matt: There’s always a chance for any team to slow down C.J. Stroud, see Rutgers. If Iowa implements a defensive plan focused on stopping Stroud and the passing game, I expect Williams and Henderson to make them pay behind the Buckeyes’ road-grading offensive line.
With that, I still expect Stroud to have 20+ completions for 250+ yards and two or more touchdowns against Iowa. If he does reach the expected numbers, Stroud will have more than 6,400 yards in the air moving past Joe Germaine for fourth on Ohio State’s career passing list.
The Hawkeyes' rush defense isn't quite as statistically dominant but ranks No. 13 in the country allowing just 3.03 yards per carry and No. 2 in the land in rushing touchdowns allowed (2). Ohio State's offensive line has been mauling much of the season. Will the guys up front open holes for the OSU rushing game? Will Day ultimately find more success on the ground or through the air against the Hawkeyes?
Matt: Yes, as mentioned above, I expect Iowa’s defense to focus on trying to limit the passing game. In doing so, the offensive line should take advantage of the plus numbers. However, every team the Buckeyes face tries to limit Stroud and the passing game. The majority have been unable to do so.
In the 19 games Stroud has been Ohio State’s starting quarterback, the Buckeyes have finished a game with more passing yards than rushing yards 17 times. That’s close to 90 percent of the games.
With the weather forecasted to be favorable for Air Stroud, I’d put my money on Ohio State having more passing yards than rushing yards against Iowa when the final whistle blows on Saturday. Numbers and percentages don’t lie, right?
Josh: The Buckeyes will use their passing attack to win the first half and conclude the game with their dominant running game. The Hawkeyes seem to have a really good run defense, much like their pass defense, but they have yet to face a two-headed monster like TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams. Day will keep that two fresh throughout the game while Iowa continues to wear down, culminating in Henderson and Williams making some big runs in the second half.
Dan: Ohio State has been effective running the ball even against the better defensive fronts it’s played this year, so I expect the Buckeyes to have their share of success against Iowa, too. The big question, though, is whether Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson will both be healthy. If they are, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buckeyes lean heavily on their running game. If they're shorthanded at running back again, they may have to rely more on Stroud and the passing game.
While I think just about everyone feels like Ohio State's defense is better than a year ago, it's still been tough to fully gauge as the opponents haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts. Iowa, of course, stinks out loud on offense so again, it'll probably be tough to take much away from this weekend either. That said, what's one thing you're looking for on defense this Saturday to keep you believing Ohio State's defense can be good enough to win the Big Ten and earn a CFP bid?
Dan: Anything less than a dominant performance from Ohio State’s defense would be a disappointment. We’re not going to learn much from watching the Buckeyes play against an offense that’s one of the worst in the entire country, but I think they’d love to shut out the Hawkeyes or at least come very close. I’m not actually going to predict a shutout, but I will make this prediction: Ohio State’s defense will score more points than Iowa’s offense. That would be a great day for the Buckeyes’ defense.
Matt: As awful as Iowa’s offense has been, I’m nervous that Brian Ferentz and the Hawkeyes did a complete overhaul during the bye week. Turning their beleaguered offense into the tight end throwing juggernaut that shocked Ohio State five years ago in Kinnick Stadium.
Then again, I don’t see Kirk Ferentz going Ward Clever on Brian’s ass and sending his son to his room without dinner. Jim Knowles’ defense should feast on the Hawkeyes’ pathetic offense.
Josh: Just continue to make Iowa's offense look abysmal. Honestly, the difference between the two offenses will make it look like it's a varsity offense when Ohio State is on the field and a freshman offense (or worse?) when the Hawkeyes are on the field Saturday afternoon. As you said, Iowa's offense is atrocious, so anything better than that would be a bit underwhelming to begin the second half of the season.
Ohio State enters the game as a huge 29-point favorite. Can the Buckeyes cover the big spread? Give us your final score and Iowa's total offensive yards.
Josh: Buckeyes cover that massive spread and beat Iowa, 41-10. The Hawkeyes will finish with 234 total yards.
Dan: I’ve got the Buckeyes holding Iowa to just three points on less than 200 yards and covering in a 38-3 win.
Matt: The pessimistic part of me – thanks 1998 – sees Ferentz and Iowa holding Ohio State under 40 points this week. History is with my Debbie Downer side because 1999 was the only time the Buckeyes scored more than 40 points against an Iowa team with Kirk Ferentz as head coach.
However, I'm trying to wish a Big Ten record six straight games of 40+ points into existence for Ohio State. So, Stroud throws for more yards than Iowa’s 243 yards of total offense and the Buckeyes win 45-14 – allowing everybody to party like it’s 1999.
