Fresh off being tabbed the No. 2 team in the first CFP rankings of the season, Ryan Day's Ohio State Buckeyes head to Evanston for a noon banger against a really bad Northwestern squad.
Speaking of really bad, the forecast currently calls for a windy and potentially damp atmosphere at Ryan Field.
Also speaking of really bad, this week's roundtable guests are.. j/k, j/k. Our esteemed 11W-studded panel this week features recruiting oracle Garrick Hodge, Northwestern homer and Best Damn Weekend Editor In The Land, George Eisner, and the author of the Sunday Debriefing, among other chores, Mr. Andy Vance.
The Penn State win didn't necessarily erase any of the ongoing concerns as it relates to Ohio State's quest for a national title. Of the run game's struggles, lack of effectiveness at cornerback or something else, what is the greatest internal threat to the team's goal of winning it all?
Garrick: I'd still be the most wary of cornerback effectiveness, mostly because Ohio State has yet to face an elite passing offense but has still been exposed for big gains on several occasions. Should they make the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes certainly will face a more vaunted passing attack than what they've seen so far. The running game has been a concern the past few weeks, but as they should against Penn State, they've proven they're capable of breaking a big run when their back is against the wall.
George: Hank Stram said it best, "you can not win if you can not run." Overall, Ohio State's offensive line has had a lot of success this season in both rushing execution and pass protection, but the strong side of the ground game had a poor performance against Penn State. Matt and Dawand Jones are capable of bouncing back, but there remains one crucial area the Buckeyes' front must improve in if the team wants to emerge victorious against the competition to come.
In power running situations this season — rushing plays on third or fourth down with two or less yards to gain for a first down or score — Ohio State's offensive line sits 94th among 131 FBS schools, converting just 64.7% of the time. By comparison, the rest of the top-5 teams in the College Football Playoff standings all rank 20th or better in the same statistic. When playing a game of inches, that sort of success rate will come back to haunt the Buckeyes eventually if improvements fail to manifest.
Andy: Prior to this game I’d have 100% said cornerback play because that’s been the knock on this team all season, but after seeing the run game stuck in the mud for two weeks in a row, I’ve got some concerns. To some extent I’m willing to lay the rushing game at Ryan Day’s feet as playcaller, because it sure felt at times like he was going to keep banging his head against the wall until something broke. I think there’s also something to be said for the health of the running backs, as both major ball carriers have been banged up at times, and there were definitely stretches of the game Saturday at Penn State where blocking wasn’t quite up to snuff.
I don’t think this team wants to rely 100% on its admittedly insanely good passing attack in the post season, so breaking tendencies and getting less predictable between now and the Michigan game feels like Priority Number One.
The defensive line was incredible against Penn State with J.T. Tuimoloau turning in a legendary performance while Zach Harrison also kept his recent streak of impactful games alive. Somewhat quietly, Tyleik Williams logged five stops and a sack. Is Larry Johnson's the strength of the defense or would you give that honor to the linebackers or safeties (we'll leave out the corners)?
Andy: Larry Johnson continues to be the G.O.A.T. of defensive position coaches, and it’s really incredible how well his guys have not only fit into the Knowles scheme but have started to really thrive. It’s hard not to say Tommy Eichenberg is the MVP of the defense given his impressive tackle numbers and incredible vision on the field, but everything that happens with the defense starts up front. The three guys named and Mike Hall Jr. are worth their weight in gold, and when Johnson retires they ought to build a statue of him somewhere prominent on campus.
Garrick: It's certainly emerging as so. Larry Johnson said in the preseason he believes he has an "alpha dog" on the defensive line, but it seems like a new alpha dog is emerging every week. Between the depth and consistency of the defensive line, Johnson's unit is delivering each and every week.
George: When the line wins, it makes the duties of everyone else on either side of the ball far easier to execute. The back seven has improved dramatically relative to recent seasons, particularly the linebackers. However, the foundation of any high-caliber defense always rests in the ability of defensive linemen to fill gaps at the line of scrimmage and create backfield havoc in passing situations.
Larry Johnson has served as the bedrock of the Silver Bullets since he first set foot on campus in 2014. Even in down years relative to expectations, this team has always had its most success in suffocating opposing offenses due to the presence of an elite pass rusher complimented by a deep rotation up front. Now, J.T. Tuimoloau appears poised to become the next great leader on the edge in the lineage that began with the Bosa brothers and continued with Chase Young. Johnson remains the constant throughout the last near-decade.
In the SEC, a huge game looms tomorrow as Tennessee travels to Georgia as an 8.5-point underdog. Who prevails in this one and why?
George: It's easy to cheer for the Volunteers after they finally got over the hump with Alabama this season. Unfortunately, it's much harder to find confidence in Tennessee's pass defense compared to the overall efficiency Georgia has demonstrated everywhere as defending national champions.
Entering this game, the Volunteers are one of only five teams in college football giving up an average of at least 300 yards per game through the air. When Tennessee played Florida at the end of September, preseason Heisman candidate Anthony Richardson had yet to throw a single touchdown pass or for more than 168 yards through his first three games. The Volunteers not only let Richardson rack up over 450 yards with his arm — which still holds as his only game with more than 275 passing yards in 2022 — but also remain the only FBS defense this season to allow Florida's quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns against them.
Stetson Bennett may not be C.J. Stroud, but he's more than capable of capitalizing on Tennessee's weak secondary and below-average pass rush on the Bulldogs' way to a win.
Andy: SP+, which is the tool I trust most in making my game predictions, gives Georgia a ~9 point advantage at home, so I’m going to ride with the Dawgs on this one. Aside from the analytics, or perhaps underlying the analytics is a better way to say it, Georgia is a more complete team. The Bulldogs have the No. 8 offense and the No. 2 defense according to SP+, while Tennessee has the No. 2 offense… and the No. 34 defense (Ohio State is No. 1 and No. 6 after eight games, for comparison).
Put it another way, Georgia has a bigger defensive advantage than Tennessee has an offensive advantage. Georgia is also No. 3 in special teams according to the advanced analytics, while Tennessee is just No. 52 (Ohio State is No. 24 in Special Teams play, fwiw). So with all those statistical advantages and the game being played Between the Hedges, the home team covers the spread and remains undefeated.
Garrick: I'll say Tennessee for no other reason than it feels like there's finally some winds of change at the top of that conference, and that offense can score on even the most vaunted of defenses.
The first set of CFP rankings came out Tuesday with a top four of Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson. Did the committee slot Ohio State correctly? What does your top four look like and who is the first team on the outside looking in?
Garrick: I'm going to be a grouch and say who cares. I know you all have heard that line 300 times by now, but if the Buckeyes win out, they're in. The rest is unnecessary. But since you asked, No. 2 sounds about right for OSU. The winner of Georgia and Tennessee is going to be No. 1 no matter what next week anyway, and if a team from the Power Five finishes undefeated (i.e. TCU or Clemson), they should be a lock to make it as well.
George: Personally, I felt stunned to see Ohio State at second overall, if for no other reason than the committee ruined the SEC's opportunity to promote Tennessee/Georgia as the No. 1/No. 2 showdown that the AP voters so graciously granted it last Sunday. However, much more blindsiding to me was seeing the Bulldogs tumble two slots down from their perch at the top of the rankings in favor of the Volunteers. In consideration of season-long resumes, Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of an Oregon team currently sitting at No. 8 overall remains the most impressive win owned by any team, including Tennessee's win over Alabama.
Otherwise, the top four seem like correct choices as a whole. Clemson emphatically deserves the nod over Michigan given their last five games featuring three road wins and the same number of victories over ranked opponents. As alluded to above, I would have Georgia and Tennessee respectively in the top two spots, with Ohio State receiving distinction as No. 3 and Clemson remaining the No. 4 team.
Andy: I’m okay with Ohio State being No. 2, but it annoys me that Flavor-of-the-Week Tennessee jumped all the way up to No. 1. I understand the rankings given Tennessee’s marquee win over Alabama, but it annoys me nonetheless. What feels criminal to me is having Clemson ranked ahead of That Team Up North. That doesn’t feel in any way justifiable based on the records or the eye test. It feels like it was concocted to serve some other purpose beyond just ranking the four best teams. If I were redoing it, I’d rank them Tennessee (because of the Alabama win), Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and I’d have undefeated TCU above Clemson as the first team out, because I feel like ‘lil ol’ Clemson is a paper tiger this season.
Ohio State heads to Ryan Field as a 38-point favorite. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and how many rushing yards Ohio State's offense produces.
Andy: The Buckeyes exorcise some demons from the past two weeks as they face a pretty terrible Northwestern team that might well finish 1-11 when it’s all said and done. After facing back-to-back top-5 defenses, Ohio State gets to square up against the No. 78 defense in SP+ (the No. 108 offense, so a few pegs worse than Iowa, if you can believe it), and it’s going to get out of hand. Maybe only the weather will slow C.J. Stroud and company down here.
Northwestern is allowing nearly 29 points per game, >220 yards passing and >186 yards rushing, on average. Ohio State will go a bit better than that, and the running backs will collectively tally a beefy 250 yards on the ground along with the team’s nearly 400 yards through the air. The team will cover, easily, with a final score of 49-6.
Garrick: The weather forecast is putting a damper (see what I did there?) on my 61-3 prediction but I'll stick to it and say that OSU runs for a combined 270 yards on the afternoon. Northwestern is just putrid and the final score will reflect that unless OSU eases up.
George: To quote my friend Ben Goren, a punished lord of Northwestern football Twitter: "The least fun place to be as a fan is where the agency of the coaches and players can no longer overcome the structural inadequacies of the organization. That’s where Northwestern is. The years of coaching alchemy by Pat Fitzgerald and, perhaps more so, by Mike Hankwitz have given way to a team without the baseline talent required in the chemical equations that yields wins."
That paragraph came about in wake of the Wildcats' loss to FCS Southern Illinois in Week 3 of this season. The next time you find yourself complaining about any momentary shortcomings in the performance of Ohio State's football team, I would ask that the spoiled Buckeye faithful consider the perspective of fans supporting teams facing far more dreadful circumstances than those perennially present in Columbus.
Ohio State covers for the fifth time in a row in Evanston by a score of 56-7. Northwestern gives up at least 215 rushing yards for the fifth time this season. Be grateful for our Buckeyes.
