With two more games left on Ohio State's schedule before Michigan rolls into town, time is short for the Buckeyes to address shortcomings such as in the running game.
Tomorrow, it's an overmatched Indiana squad providing the Buckeyes with a chance to work on areas of opportunity while moving to 10-0.
To get you primed for the high noon kick, our very own Ramzy Nasrallah, Chase Brown and Matt Gutridge offer their thoughts in this week's 11W Roundtable.
I think it would be an upset, through nine games anyway, for anyone other than Tommy Eichenberg to be named Ohio State’s most valuable defensive player. That said, a host of other guys have really stood out at various points during the season. If you could pick an unsung hero on this year’s defense so far, who would you go with and why?
Chase: Funny you ask. I actually wrote about Ronnie Hickman being an unsung hero of the Ohio State defense for my Thursday Skull Session this week. While not on pace for the statistical success he achieved last year, Hickman is playing some of his best football as a Buckeye this season. Against Penn State and Northwestern, the fourth-year safety had his best games of the season by making tackles, deflecting passes and forcing fumbles, and I expect those kinds of performances to continue into the final stretch because Hickman always shows up and gets the job done. That's the kind of player he is.
Ramzy: I’ll go the lame snap counts route here. Two OSU defenders have over 500 snaps on the season, Tommy Eichenberg and Ronnie Hickman. No one else is getting that kind of stage time, which makes them the two most indispensable guys on the team. I’m not privy to the DL rotation philosophy that keeps chaotic disrupters like Mike Hall sheathed for most of the afternoons and evenings, but if Ohio State absolutely needed to have him on the field, it would. They absolutely need to have Eichenberg and Hickman on the field.
Other guys who have been impressive include Lathan Ransom, whose leg was in separate pieces earlier this calendar year - big Comeback Player of the Year vibes. Zach Harrison has ascended the way college stars used to back when they were allowed to take four years to go from Boyz to Men, which makes him a delightful throwback. And then there's J.T. Tuimoloau, now approaching the You Must Gameplan Around This Guy frontier.
Matt: Tanner McCalister. He leads the team in interceptions (3) and from preseason reports, McCalister has been instrumental in helping the defensive players learn Jim Knowles’ scheme.
Seems like every time Ohio State can’t run the ball, Ryan Day rattles off a host of reasons why – the conditions, the opponent stacking the box etc. What are one or two things you’d pinpoint as holding the run game back at this point? When it comes down to it against Michigan, will Ohio State be able to run the ball or not?
Matt: At this moment, I’m not feeling confident the running game would be effective against a playoff team…a high school playoff team. I kid, kind of.
Over the past three weeks, it appears the poor performance has been a combination of line play, running back play, high-level execution and opposing defenses knowing when to load up the box to sell out against the run.
If the passing game is on point tomorrow, I believe the running game will benefit. However, in recent weeks the line hasn’t executed and finished blocks and the running backs haven’t been consistent from play to play.
Looking at the running game dilemma with a larger lens, how have Day’s teams performed on the ground over the weeks 7, 8 and 9 through the years? Let’s take a look at the averages:
- 2019: 48 carries for 309 yards and 3.7 touchdowns
- 2020: 39 carries for 267 yards and 1.7 touchdowns*
- 2021: 32 carries for 146 yards and 1.3 touchdowns
*Weeks 6, 7 and 8 due to the eight-game schedule.
How have the Buckeyes performed over the same weeks this season? 30 carries for 124 yards and 2.3 touchdowns. Unfortunately, a downward trend from each season to the next in carries and yardage is emerging.
The running game has also gained fewer yards when looking at weeks 10-12 over the last three years. Day’s offense is going to have to show me it can run the ball against Michigan before I can be confident it will do so.
Chase: I think Ohio State's problems in the run game have occurred because of what the coaching staff is asking the offensive linemen to do on a weekly basis. Rather than pound the ball up the middle, the Buckeyes continue to call runs outside the tackles. That's fine if the offensive line can hold their blocks, but they didn't do a good job of that against Iowa, Penn State and Northwestern. I would like to see Ryan Day, Kevin Wilson and Justin Frye stick to dive plays and power in between the guards, allowing Matthew Jones and Donovan Jackson to pull as a lead blocker and get them to the second level so Ohio State can wear down teams in the middle of the field and open up opportunities in the play-action pass.
Ramzy: It looks super clunky to me but then I pull up SP+ and for Rushing Basics the Buckeyes are ranked 4th in success rate, 6th in marginal efficiency, 31st in marginal explosiveness, 3rd in opportunity rate, 87th in power success rate (yeah that one sounds right) and 18th in stuff rate. I think they either need to figure out how they want to run the ball, or they know and they’re sort of rope-a-doping until they finally play [closes mouth, motions eyes toward that team].
I’d love the OL to look crispier at this point in the season. But I also only care about outcomes. What I think is funny is guys like me, you reading this (you, Doug - and definitely you too Tony) and everyone else talking about the busted Ohio State rushing game as if Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson don’t have PhDs in offensive strategy and execution. The Buckeyes scored 115 points in the two games leading up to the finale last year - against two top-15 opponents, and ran the ball just fine.
They were soaring, while showing all of their cards. Maybe they’re just not doing that this time. Maybe they don’t have to.
Speaking of the Michigan game, I admit my confidence level has dropped a bit over the last few weeks, though I still think the game being at home puts Ohio State over the top, assuming it’s not too windy or wet. That said, Michigan has struggled in at least the first half of many Big Ten games so far. If The Game was played this weekend, would you have Ohio State advancing to the winner’s circle? Why or why not?
Ramzy: I don’t think Michigan has struggled in its first halves. The Wolverines are just steady, allow their opponents to fatigue or tell on themselves for a little while and then punish them for doing both as the game progresses. Ohio State has been a pretty decent 2nd half team this season. Last season starting from mid-October they overwhelmed nobody in the 2nd half. Not a single team. I think Ohio State would beat Michigan if the game were played this weekend, next weekend or the weekend after that.
Matt: As you mentioned in your question, it depends on the weather. The defense has been performing at a championship level, the passing game (minus hurricane winds) has performed at a championship level. The running game has not.
What is typically the determining factor in the winner of The Game? The team that wins the rushing battle, wins the game. Since 1938, Ohio State is 32-12-2 when outrushing Michigan. The Buckeyes have an 11-28-2 record when finishing with fewer rushing yards than their rival.
At this point, Michigan has the better offensive line and running game. To put this in perspective, the last time Ohio State lost a game when having more rushing yards in The Game was 2000 and the last time the Buckeyes tasted victory with fewer rushing yards than the Wolverines was 1994.
Even with those sobering numbers, Ohio State will still win. Why? God and Woody say so. Fuck Michigan.
Chase: I think I would, but I will also admit that my confidence in Ohio State winning The Game has dropped in recent weeks. If you asked me in September or early October, I probably would have said the Buckeyes win by 10-14 points, but now I would take them by one score or less.
The biggest reason I believe Ohio State can beat Michigan is because of how both teams play offense. I believe Ohio State is more equipped to take away Michigan's strength – the run – more than Michigan is equipped to take away Ohio State's strength – the pass – in a 60-minute football game. And if for some reason both teams are successful at taking away the other's strength, I'll put my money on TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams winning the game with their legs more than J.J. McCarthy winning the game with his arm.
After a red-hot first half of the season in which he led the team in receptions and yards, Emeka Egbuka hasn’t been as effective in the pass game over the last two weeks though to be fair, nobody was effective last week. That said, any concern about his ability to live up to No. 2 receiver standards alongside clear No. 1 Marvin Harrison Jr.? Can Ohio State win the Big Ten and a national title without Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the field?
Chase: No, I'm not concerned about Egbuka's ability to be Ohio State's No. 2 receiver. You are right that his production has dropped off in recent weeks, but I think we will see that pick back up when the Buckeyes face Indiana and Maryland in the next two weeks. Should Ohio State be without Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the rest of the season, Harrison, Egbuka, Julian Fleming and Cade Stover should provide the Buckeyes with enough in the pass game for them to accomplish their goals of beating Michigan, winning the Big Ten Championship and winning a national title.
Ramzy: There are games you can learn a lot from and games from which you can learn little. Northwestern was neither of those games - you learn nothing from a game played in those conditions against an opponent who elicits zero feelings. Egbuka is good for 6 catches and north of 50 yards per game. He’s basically Dee Miller. Harrison Jr. is David Boston. Cade Stover is John Lumpkin. Miyan and TreVeyon are Joe Montgomery and Michael Wiley. Good news, this version of that team already beat Michigan State.
Ohio State can win the conference without JSN, and I worry about chemistry and rhythm with him just showing up at the grand finale, unless he’s running with the ones in practice. Healthy JSN in this offense playing in garden variety bad weather is damn near unstoppable.
Matt: No, like Chris, I’ve been a member of the Emeka Egbuka fan club since last year. The state of Washington native will make opposing defenses pay as they rightfully shift their attention to the freakishly talented Marvin Harrison Jr.
Yes, Ohio State can win the Big Ten and national title without JSN. However, the offense should be more explosive when Smith-Njigba returns to play against Michigan. Disclaimer, the offense will be more explosive if C.J. Stroud continues to spread the ball around to multiple receivers as he’s done for the majority of the season when Smith-Njigba returns.
Like last week, Ohio State is a 38-point favorite over the Hoosiers. Will the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score prediction.
Matt: Time to turn to Storm Team 4, Dave Mazza and company are predicting temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s with winds of up to 15 mph blowing from west to east.
No matter the temperature, Ryan Day still has some heat burning inside due to Tom Allen running his mouth two years ago. Looking forward to vengeful Day continuing to find peace by blowing out the Hoosiers.
Ohio State 49, Indiana 10.
Chase: Oh, man. I was hoping to keep my score prediction private until the pregame score predictions post so hopefully less people would see it and flame me later for potentially being wrong, but I have Ohio State winning this one big. In fact, I have the Buckeyes winning this one, 70-7. Yes, you read that right. Let me explain.
This season, I've watched Ohio State's offense – when it's clicking and playing to its potential, of course – put up 47 and 37 points on Iowa and Penn State's defenses when both were considered two of the top units in college football. I looked at Indiana's defensive stats earlier this week and found that the Hoosiers rank No. 104 in total defense and No. 115 scoring defense at 422.3 yards and 32.22 points per contest. Both of those statistics are in the bottom third of the FBS after 10 games.
With that said, I think the Buckeyes will be firing on all cylinders on Saturday and will make the Hoosiers look like a JV team. Whether or not they get to 70, I'm not sure. Ryan Day likes sportsmanship or whatever and doesn't like running up the score. However, Ohio State did put up 66 against Maryland in 2021, so maybe Ohio State will get there eventually. We shall see on Saturday.
Ramzy: Ohio State 52, Indiana 12. That’s just to spite everyone who jumped on OSU -41. The Hoosiers won’t get Ohio State’s best game, and I don’t think that’s going to be an accident.
