Ohio State is a massive betting favorite for the second week in a row to start its final month of the regular season.
This week, the Buckeyes are favored to beat Indiana by 40 points, even more than the 38 points they were favored to beat Northwestern by last week. Of course, Ohio State didn’t even come close to covering that spread in Evanston, where the Buckeyes passed for only 76 yards as they slogged to a 21-7 win amid windy and rainy weather.
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| INDIANA HOOSIERS |
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3-6 (1-5 B1G) ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 12 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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FOX FOXSports |
Relatively speaking, the weather is expected to be more manageable at Ohio Stadium on Saturday. It will be a cold afternoon in Columbus, with a projected high of only 41 degrees, and there is a chance of rain, but winds are not expected to exceed 10 to 15 miles per hour – which C.J. Stroud and his teammates are certainly happy about.
“Thank God for that,” Stroud said with a laugh Wednesday when told about the wind forecast for Saturday.
Regardless of the weather, Ohio State will be looking for a crisper performance this week against the Hoosiers, who have lost their last six games in a row. While Ryan Day and the Buckeyes say the only thing they’re concerned about is winning, they recognize there are things they need to clean up from last week if they’re going to keep winning every week and remain on track to achieve their goals.
“We have to just keep finding ways to win. And I think that's very important to recognize that if you keep winning, you're going to keep moving on,” Day said. “That being said, when you look at the film, were we playing really clean football in all areas? Are we getting better every week? Those are the things we're going to focus on … identify the things we need to get better at and have a good week of practice and go play Indiana.”
The Headlines
Offense looks to get back on track
Ohio State had its worst offensive performance of the season at Northwestern, gaining a season-low 283 total yards and tying its season-low by scoring only 21 points. While the weather and how that impacted Ohio State’s passing game had a lot to do with that, the running game also had its share of struggles for the third week in a row, particularly in short-yardage situations.
Although Ohio State still leads the country with 45.8 points scored per game, the Buckeyes certainly haven’t had the offensive balance they want in the second half of the season, as Ohio State has now gone three games in a row in which it has either failed to run for 100 yards (Iowa, Penn State) or throw for 100 yards (Northwestern). And being able to run the ball in situations where opponents know they will want to run the ball is a key area where the Buckeyes are looking to improve.
“When you’re playing in November and you’re playing in Big Ten games, you gotta run the ball and you gotta score touchdowns,” Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson said Thursday.
Starting fast will also be a point of emphasis for the Buckeyes this week after they scored just one touchdown on their first 10 possessions against Iowa, one touchdown on their first nine possessions against Penn State and no points on their first six possessions against Northwestern.
“Let's get in a rhythm early on and get going,” Day said of the goal for this week. “Noon start, wake up fast and get to clicking some pads.”
Facing Indiana could be the medicine Ohio State needs to get its offense back to firing on all cylinders. The Hoosiers have allowed 32.2 points per game (115th in the FBS) and 422.3 yards per game (103rd) this season. Saturday’s game will provide another challenge for Ohio State in the run game, though, as the Hoosiers rank 31st in the country with only 3.6 rushing yards allowed per carry.
“They’ll give us a great test, they always do,” Wilson said. “We need to play a lot better than we did last week.”
Hoosiers on a six-game skid
While Indiana gave Ohio State a scare in its last trip to Columbus in 2020, when the Hoosiers scored 28 second-half points before the Buckeyes held on for a 42-35 win, the Hoosiers enter this year’s game with none of the momentum they had as a top-10-ranked team entering that game two years ago.
After going just 2-10 in 2021, the Hoosiers started this season with three straight wins over Illinois, Idaho and Western Kentucky but have since lost six straight games to Cincinnati, Nebraska, Michigan, Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State.
The Hoosiers haven’t been particularly good in any phase of the game but have especially struggled on offense, ranking fourth-to-last in the entire FBS in yards per play (4.4). Indiana has attempted the sixth-most passes in the FBS (409) but has thrown for the fifth-fewest yards per pass (5.5), all the while ranking second-to-last in yards per rush (2.64). The Hoosiers have been held to 17 points or fewer in three of their last four games and under 300 yards in four of their last five games.
Indiana coach Tom Allen acknowledged this week that it’s been a “really challenging” season for his team, and all signs point to the Hoosiers being overmatched this weekend if Ohio State plays up to its ability. He doesn’t expect his team to give up, though.
“We will continue to fight and battle,” Allen said. “That's what we are all about here.”
Second-to-last home game of the year
After this week, Ohio State’s only remaining game at Ohio Stadium this season will be The Game against Michigan on Nov. 26. Having already played six games at the Shoe this year, Ohio State will play its second-to-last home game of 2022 on Saturday.
Following back-to-back games away from home for the first and only time during the regular season, Day and the Buckeyes are looking forward to playing in front of a home crowd once again.
“Looking forward to doing the walk (to the stadium) and the Skull Session, being in Ohio Stadium again and being around our crowd,” Day said. “We only get two more home games this year and 100th-year anniversary, it's been a great year so far at home. So looking forward to being back with everybody on Saturday.”
While the Buckeyes still hope to play six more games this season by making it to the Big Ten Championship Game, the College Football Playoff and the national championship game, the realization has started to set in that they’re in the homestretch of the regular season, which gives them all the more reason to want to put their best foot forward in front of Buckeye Nation this week.
“They remember the games in November, so I think it's just a matter of just tightening down on all the little things,” Ohio State safety Ronnie Hickman said this week. “It's been a long season, probably one of the fastest seasons I've played in.”
With the exception of the season opener against Notre Dame, Ohio State has won all of its other home games this season by at least 31 points. Saturday’s game will be Ohio State’s third of four noon home games this season, as the Buckeyes’ previous games against Arkansas State and Iowa were also noon games while The Game will also kick off in its traditional 12 p.m. timeslot.
Keep An Eye on These Guys
OLB Dasan McCullough
If you follow Ohio State recruiting closely, the name that will probably catch your eye the most on Indiana’s roster is McCullough, who originally committed to Ohio State before flipping to Indiana after his father Deland McCullough was hired as the Hoosiers’ associate head coach.
Deland McCullough has since left Indiana to become the running backs coach at Notre Dame, but Dasan McCullough stayed true to his second commitment and has become an immediate impact player for the Hoosiers, leading Indiana with four sacks this season. He has recorded 38 total tackles, 5.5 total tackles for loss and three pass breakups.
Dasan McCullough made big plays against Idaho, showcasing his athleticism, quickness, and football IQ. Here's a compilation. So excited to watch him all season. #iufb pic.twitter.com/XYJEOW6mbb
— Saint Tom Allen (@SaintTomAllen) September 12, 2022
At 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds with excellent athleticism for his size, McCullough plays the Bull position for Indiana – a hybrid outside linebacker/edge rusher role similar to the Jack position in Ohio State’s defense. Given that both played a role in initially recruiting him to Ohio State, Day and Wilson will both be well-aware of his skill set as they prepare their offensive game plan for Saturday.
While he likely would have had to wait his turn to play behind veterans before playing a major role for the Buckeyes, he’s quickly emerged as one of the best players on Indiana’s defense, impacting the game not only as a pass-rusher but also as a run-stopper and dropping back into pass coverage.
LB Aaron Casey
Casey has been one of the most productive defenders in the entire Big Ten this season, ranking seventh in the conference with 70 total tackles and sixth with nine tackles for loss. He has the highest Pro Football Focus grade (78.3) of any Indiana player who has played in more than one game this season, and he’s also forced two fumbles this year.
While Cam Jones was expected to be Indiana’s top linebacker this season, he has missed all of Indiana’s last four games due to injury and will remain sidelined this week. Casey has stepped up in Jones’ absence, and the Hoosiers will need him to have a big game if they’re going to have a chance to slow down Ohio State’s offense this week.
Somehow the Hoosiers pulled out the W on Saturday... And Aaron Casey was flying around making plays, as usual. I love the energy and disruption the redshirt senior from Douglasville, GA brings on defense. Here's 8 plays.#iufb pic.twitter.com/KS7DFYAfgR
— Saint Tom Allen (@SaintTomAllen) September 20, 2022
RB Josh Henderson
Indiana doesn’t have much offensive star power, especially since leading receiver Cam Camper went down with a torn ACL in the Hoosiers’ Oct. 22 loss to Rutgers. No other player on Indiana’s offense has more than 524 yards from scrimmage this season.
That said, the Hoosiers’ most effective offensive playmaker in recent weeks has been Henderson, who is both Indiana’s second-leading rusher (286 yards and three touchdowns on 63 carries) and third-leading receiver (18 catches for 232 yards and three touchdowns). He’s scored the most touchdowns of any Indiana player and leads the Hoosiers in both average yards per carry (4.54) and average yards per catch (12.9), making him a player Ohio State will need to account for whenever he’s on the field on both running and passing plays.
At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Henderson is the biggest of Indiana’s running backs who play regularly while he also has the shiftiness to make defenders miss, leading all Hoosiers with 36 total missed tackles this season, per PFF.
OH MY JOSH HENDERSON @Hendy23 | @IndianaFootball pic.twitter.com/5DzuSgEVfC
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 17, 2022
Game Week Talk
“We can't be looking ahead at that game right now. We have to go beat Indiana, or else everything's at risk.”– Ryan Day on buildup for The Game
Although Ohio State talks about the goal of beating Michigan all year long, Day knows the Buckeyes still have two more games to win before rivalry week. So while the buildup to a potential top-three matchup at the end of the month is well underway, Day wants his team’s focus this week to be on beating the Hoosiers – a message that was surely reinforced even more after the Buckeyes got a stiffer-than-expected test from Northwestern.
“One guy may run around a little bit more, but I think your preparation is the same. Unless there's really a drastic change in what they do from one quarterback to the next, you try to keep it as similar as possible between the two different guys.”– Jim Knowles on preparing for multiple Indiana quarterbacks
Indiana has had a quarterback carousel this season, as five different Hoosiers have attempted passes and starter Connor Bazelak missed the Hoosiers’ loss to Penn State last week with an injury. Bazelak is expected to return to the starting lineup this week, but it’s possible Dexter Williams II – who’s more of a running threat – could also see playing time, though Knowles says that won’t change Ohio State’s defensive game plan much.
“Last week, with all the weather issues, he used his legs more than he had in the past. Showed the ability to do that, which creates another issue for you as a defense.”– Tom Allen on C.J. Stroud
Stroud’s emergence as a running threat last week is already influencing the way opponents prepare to play against Ohio State’s offense this week.
| Ohio State | Pos | Indiana |
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| OFFENSE | ||
| C.J. STROUD | QB | CONNOR BAZELAK |
| MIYAN WILLIAMS | RB | SHAUN SHIVERS |
| MARVIN HARRISON JR. | WR | ANDISON COBY |
| JULIAN FLEMING | WR | EMERY SIMMONS |
| EMEKA EGBUKA | WR | D.J. MATTHEWS JR. |
| CADE STOVER | TE | AJ BARNER |
| PARIS JOHNSON JR. | LT | LUKE HAGGARD |
| DONOVAN JACKSON | LG | ZACH CARPENTER |
| LUKE WYPLER | C | MIKE KATIC |
| MATT JONES | RG | KAHLIL BENSON |
| DAWAND JONES | RT | PARKER HANNA |
| DEFENSE | ||
| ZACH HARRISON | DE | JAMES HEAD |
| MIKE HALL | DT | DEMARCUS ELLIOTT |
| TARON VINCENT | DT | SIO NOFOAGATOTO’A |
| J.T. TUIMOLOAU | DE/BULL | ALFRED BRYANT |
| STEELE CHAMBERS | WLB | BRADLEY JENNINGS JR. |
| TOMMY EICHENBERG | MLB | AARON CASEY |
| TANNER MCCALISTER | NB | NOAH PIERRE |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | TIAWAN MULLEN |
| CAMERON BROWN | CB | JAYLIN WILLIAMS |
| RONNIE HICKMAN | S | BRYANT FITZGERALD |
| LATHAN RANSOM | S | DEVON MATTHEWS |
Get Smart
- Ohio State has won its last 27 consecutive games against Indiana, dating back to 1991. The Buckeyes’ last loss to Indiana was a 41-7 defeat in Bloomington in 1988, though the Buckeyes and Hoosiers tied in Bloomington in 1990.
- Ohio State has an all-time record of 78-12-5 against Indiana.
- Indiana’s roster features nine players from Ohio, including four starters: Bazelak, tight end AJ Barner, left guard/center Zach Carpenter and long snapper Sean Wracher.
- Ohio State has four players from Indiana: offensive linemen Dawand Jones, Josh Fryar and Zen Michalski and defensive end Caden Curry.
- Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson was the head coach at Indiana from 2011-16. Allen was Indiana’s defensive coordinator for Wilson’s final season in Bloomington.
- Ohio State offensive line coach Justin Frye played for Indiana as an offensive lineman from 2002-06.
- This week’s game is Ohio State’s fourth noon game in a row. It’s the third time in four weeks that Ohio State is playing in Fox’s Big Noon game, and Big Noon Kickoff will be back in Columbus for the second time this season after previously traveling to Columbus for the Iowa game.
- Saturday’s game, which falls just one day after Veterans Day, will serve as Military Appreciation Day at Ohio Stadium.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -40, O/U 58.5
Ohio State’s inability to pull away from Northwestern last week may have some questioning whether the Buckeyes should be such a sizable favorite this week, and 40 is a big number regardless, as Ohio State has only beaten two opponents (Toledo and Iowa) by more than 40 points this season.
Even so, we still like the Buckeyes’ chances of covering the spread this week.
Ohio State will surely be motivated to put up big numbers on offense after being slowed by the weather last week, and Indiana’s 107th-ranked passing defense isn’t likely to have much of an answer for Stroud and the Buckeyes’ aerial attack. Indiana’s offense has been neither explosive through the air nor effective on the ground, and the Hoosiers’ struggling offensive line could be overwhelmed by the Buckeyes’ talented defensive line.
Indiana consistently plays with tempo on offense, which presents a challenge the Buckeyes must be ready for but could also lead to more possessions for Ohio State’s offense, increasing the Buckeyes’ opportunity to wear out the Hoosiers’ defense and score a lot of points.
Ohio State doesn’t really need style points, and given that Saturday is likely to be the Buckeyes’ best remaining opportunity this season to get their backups in the game, Ohio State could call off the dogs early if it has a comfortable lead in the second half. After last week’s battle with Northwestern, though, Ohio State might be more inclined to want to make a statement on the scoreboard, especially with it being the second-to-last home game of the year.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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52 | 10 |
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