With less than one week to go, it should be becoming more clear where Ohio State’s top prospects will be selected in the 2023 NFL draft. The opposite is happening instead, at least for C.J. Stroud.
While Stroud was the consensus choice to be the No. 1 overall pick in our last two editions of the NFL Mock Draft Roundup, that’s no longer the case. Of the 36 mock drafts from the past two weeks included in this roundup, less than 20% of them have Stroud going with the top pick, though more than half of them have Stroud coming off the board second.
As for Paris Johnson Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, both of them are projected as potential selections for at least nine different teams in the first round, though the most popular projections are clear: Nearly half of the mock drafts included in this roundup have the Texans drafting Smith-Njigba at No. 12 overall, with some of those mocks forecasting the Texans will draft both Stroud and Smith-Njigba, while a third of the most recent mock drafts have the Chicago Bears drafting Johnson to protect Justin Fields’ blind side.
In total, 10 Buckeyes are projected to be selected in at least one mock draft in this mock draft roundup, including two additional Buckeyes drawing at least one first-round projection (Dawand Jones and Zach Harrison), two other Buckeyes drawing at least one Day 2 projection (Luke Wypler and Ronnie Hickman) and three other Buckeyes projected as potential late-round picks (Noah Ruggles, Cameron Brown and Tanner McCalister).
The full list of 36 mock drafts surveyed for this roundup, all of which were published either this week or last week:
- Athlon Sports’ Luke Easterling (3 rounds)
- Bleacher Report Scouting Department (1 round)
- CBS Sports’ Chris Trapasso (7 rounds)
- CBS Sports’ Josh Edwards (7 rounds)
- CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones (1 round)
- CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson (7 rounds)
- Draft Countdown’s Brad Menendez (7 rounds)
- Draft Countdown’s Shane Hallam (7 rounds)
- Draft Tek (7 rounds)
- Draft Wire’s Curt Popejoy (3 rounds)
- Draft Wire’s Jeff Risdon (2 rounds)
- ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay (3 rounds)
- Fox Sports’ Carmen Vitali and David Helman (1 round)
- Los Angeles Times’ NFL beat writers mock (1 round)
- NBC Sports Edge’s Connor Rogers (1 round)
- NFL.com’s Charles Davis (1 round)
- NFL.com’s Maurice Jones-Drew (1 round)
- NFL.com’s Peter Schrager (1 round)
- Pro Football Focus’ Arjun Menon and Brad Spielberger (1 round)
- Pro Football Focus’ Mike Renner (1 round)
- Pro Football Network’s Adam Caplan (1 round)
- Pro Football Network’s Cam Mellor (7 rounds)
- Pro Football Network’s Kyle Yates (2 rounds)
- Pro Football Network’s Ian Cummings (7 rounds)
- Pro Football Network’s Oliver Hodgkinson (3 rounds)
- Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline (1 round)
- San Diego Union-Tribune’s Eddie Brown (3 rounds)
- Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer (3 rounds)
- Tankathon (3 rounds)
- The 33rd Team Scouting Department (2 rounds)
- The Athletic’s Dane Brugler (7 rounds)
- The Athletic’s Diante Lee (1 round)
- The Draft Network’s Jack McKessy (2 rounds)
- The Draft Network’s Justin Melo (2 rounds)
- USA TODAY’s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz (1 round)
- Yahoo Sports’ Charles McDonald (1 round)
QB C.J. Stroud
No. 1, Carolina Panthers: 7 (Hallam, Hodgkinson, McKessy, Mellor, Pauline, Wilson, Yates)
No. 2, Houston Texans: 20 (B/R, Brown, Brugler, Cummings, Davis, Draft Tek, Edwards, Iyer, Jones, Jones-Drew, Lee, McShay, Menendez, Menon/Spielberger, Middlehurst-Schwartz, Popejoy, Rogers, Tankathon, Trapasso, 33rd Team)
No. 2, Detroit Lions: 1 (Renner)
No. 2, Indianapolis Colts: 1 (Schrager)
No. 3, Atlanta Falcons: 1 (Vitali/Helman)
No. 3, Tennessee Titans: 1 (Risdon)
No. 4, Indianapolis Colts: 4 (Caplan, Easterling, L.A. Times, McDonald)
No. 6, Tennessee Titans: 1 (Melo)
While there have been increasing rumblings this week that the Texans aren’t sold on Stroud, most mock drafters aren’t buying the notion that Houston will actually pass upon the opportunity to select one of the draft’s top two quarterbacks. Some of these mock drafts were published before those rumors really started picking up steam, so it’s possible the Texans could draft a pass-rusher like Alabama’s Will Anderson or even another quarterback like Kentucky’s Will Levis over Stroud, but most draft analysts agree that passing over Stroud would be a mistake for the quarterback-needy Texans.
Mock drafters are buying the rumors that the Panthers have zeroed in on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, as the percentage of mocks projecting Stroud to go No. 1 has plummeted from nearly 80% to under 20% in only two weeks.
If the Texans pass upon Stroud, the Colts are seen as the most likely destination, given that they hold the No. 4 overall pick and the Arizona Cardinals won’t be drafting a quarterback at No. 3. That said, several mock drafts project other teams trading up to draft Stroud, including two mocks that have Mike Vrabel and the Titans – who showed interest in Stroud at both this year’s and last year’s Ohio State pro days – making a move up the board to bring Stroud to Tennessee.
OT Paris Johnson Jr.
No. 4, Indianapolis Colts: 1 (Lee)
No. 7, Las Vegas Raiders: 3 (Davis, Popejoy, Trapasso)
No. 8, Atlanta Falcons: 2 (L.A. Times, Menendez)
No. 9, Chicago Bears: 12 (Brown, Cummings, Draft Tek, Hallam, Hodgkinson, Mellor, Menon/Spielberger, Middlehurst-Schwartz, Pauline, Tankathon, Wilson, 33rd Team)
No. 9, Pittsburgh Steelers: 1 (Melo)
No. 11, Tennessee Titans: 2 (Edwards, Jones)
No. 11, Arizona Cardinals: 1 (Yates)
No. 13, New York Jets: 8 (Brugler, Caplan, Easterling, Iyer, McDonald, Renner, Risdon, Rogers)
No. 14, New England Patriots: 2 (McShay, Vitali/Helman)
No. 16, Washington Commanders: 2 (B/R, Jones-Drew)
No. 17, Pittsburgh Steelers: 2 (McKessy, Schrager)
Not a lot has changed with Johnson’s projections since the last mock draft roundup. The Bears, in need of an offensive tackle upgrade to better protect Fields, are the most-projected team to draft his former Ohio State teammate. The Jets, who are also widely expected to target an offensive tackle in the first round, remain the second-most common projection for Johnson’s landing spot.
Johnson’s draft floor is seen as the 17th overall pick – the only spot in the first round where no Buckeye has ever been drafted – as the Steelers need an offensive tackle. The Draft Network’s Justin Melo actually projects the Steelers will trade up with the Bears for the No. 9 overall pick to take Johnson for themselves.
The Athletic’s Diante Lee has the Colts trading for Lamar Jackson and drafting Johnson to be his left tackle with the No. 4 overall pick, but the vast majority of mocks have Johnson being selected between the seventh and 14th pick. Outside of the Bears, the most popular projected landing spot for Johnson inside the top 10 is Las Vegas, where he’d likely be the Raiders’ starting right tackle even though they drafted fellow former Ohio State offensive lineman Thayer Munford to play that position a year ago.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
No. 10, Philadelphia Eagles: 2 (Vitali/Helman, Yates)
No. 11, Tennessee Titans: 4 (Caplan, Cummings, Draft Tek, Menon/Spielberger)
No. 12, Houston Texans: 17 (B/R, Brown, Davis, Hallam, Jones-Drew, L.A. Times, McDonald, McKessy, McShay, Mellor, Melo, Menendez, Middlehurt-Schwartz, Renner, Tankathon, Wilson, 33rd Team)
No. 14, New England Patriots: 1 (Pauline)
No. 15, Green Bay Packers: 6 (Edwards, Jones, Popejoy, Rogers, Schrager, Trapasso)
No. 19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1 (Risdon)
No. 20, Seattle Seahawks: 2 (Brugler, Hodgkinson)
No. 21, Los Angeles Chargers: 2 (Easterling, Iyer)
No, 23, Minnesota Vikings: 1 (Lee)
Ten of the 17 mock drafts that have the Texans drafting Smith-Njigba also have them drafting Stroud. That would mean following what has been a successful blueprint for teams like the Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase), Miami Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle) and Philadelphia Eagles (Jalen Hurts and De’Vonta Smith) by pairing a quarterback with a first-round wide receiver who they also played with in college.
It’s possible Smith-Njigba could come off the board before the Texans’ second pick, as the Eagles have the flexibility to draft the best player available with the 10th pick and the Titans are in the market for another weapon for whoever their 2023 quarterback ends up being, leading to multiple mock draft projections for both of those teams to draft him.
As for the mock drafts that have the Texans passing on Smith-Njigba, half of those mocks have Smith-Njigba with the Packers, who need more playmakers as they prepare to shift from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love at quarterback. As the consensus becomes clearer that JSN is the No. 1 receiver in this year’s draft, all but three mock drafts in this roundup have Smith-Njigba going inside the top 20 picks while no one has him falling further than 23rd.
OT Dawand Jones
Round 1, No. 17, Pittsburgh Steelers: 2 (Cummings, 33rd Team)
Round 1, No. 28, Cincinnati Bengals: 2 (Menon/Spielberger, Vitali/Helman)
Round 1, No. 30, Philadelphia Eagles: 1 (Menendez)
Round 1, No. 31, Kansas City Chiefs: 3 (B/R, Edwards, Mellor)
Round 2, No. 33, Houston Texans: 1 (McKessy)
Round 2, No. 34, Arizona Cardinals: 1 (Wilson)
Round 2, No. 34, Kansas City Chiefs: 1 (Melo)
Round 2, No. 35, Indianapolis Colts: 1 (Iyer)
Round 2, No. 38, Las Vegas Raiders: 2 (Hodgkinson, Tankathon)
Round 2, No. 39, Carolina Panthers: 1 (Trapasso)
Round 2, No. 41, Tennessee Titans: 2 (Easterling, Risdon)
Round 2, No. 46, New England Patriots: 2 (Popejoy, Yates)
Round 2, No. 49, Pittsburgh Steelers: 1 (Brugler)
Round 2, No. 50, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1 (McShay)
Round 2, No. 56, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1 (Draft Tek)
Round 2, No. 59, Dallas Cowboys: 1 (Brown)
Round 2, No. 60, Cincinnati Bengals: 1 (Hallam)
If the Steelers miss out on Johnson, they could consider drafting Jones with the No. 17 overall pick instead. That’s the only scenario, however, in which any of the mock drafters in this roundup see him going before the final four picks of the first round.
The Bengals, Eagles and Chiefs could all be candidates to draft Jones just before the end of Round 1, as he lands in the first round with one of those three teams in six combined mocks. The consensus, though, is that Jones will be selected in the second round, where he lands in well over half of the mocks in this roundup that include at least two rounds.
Unlike the last edition of the roundup, no mocks this time around have Jones falling out of Round 2.
DE Zach Harrison
Round 1, No. 29, New Orleans Saints: 1 (Yates)
Round 2, No. 53, Chicago Bears: 1 (Cummings)
Round 2, No. 56, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1 (Iyer)
Round 3, No. 64, Chicago Bears: 1 (Hallam)
Round 3, No. 68, Denver Broncos: 2 (Brugler, Menendez)
Round 3, No. 71, Las Vegas Raiders: 1 (Brown)
Round 3, No. 73, Houston Texans: 1 (Draft Tek)
Round 3, No. 81, Detroit Lions: 1 (Hodgkinson)
Round 3, No. 86, Baltimore Ravens: 1 (Popejoy)
Round 3, No. 88, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1 (McShay)
Round 3, No. 90, Dallas Cowboys: 1 (Tankathon)
Round 3, No. 98, Cleveland Browns: 1 (Mellor)
Round 4, No. 112, New York Jets: 1 (Trapasso)
Round 4, No. 132, Carolina Panthers: 1 (Edwards)
Round 5, No. 163, Cincinnati Bengals: 1 (Wilson)
It would register as a surprise at this point if Harrison is drafted in the first round, but that’s what Pro Football Network’s Kyle Yates projected in his latest mock draft, noting that the Saints – who have a rich history of drafting Buckeyes – are unafraid to make picks “out of left field” and that Harrison “fits the exact prototype of what the Saints prioritize in their edge rushers.”
Only two other mocks, however, even having Harrison going in the second round. The consensus among draft prognosticators is that Harrison will be selected in Round 3, where he lands in 10 of the 16 mocks in this roundup that include at least three rounds, though there are a few mocks that Harrison waiting until Round 4 or even Round 5 to hear his name called on Saturday.
The only teams projected to select Harrison in multiple mocks are the Bears, Jaguars and the Broncos. Should he be selected by Denver, he’d join a group of pass-rushers that includes two of his former Ohio State teammates, Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper.
Zach Harrison is projected to go as high as the first round or as low as the fifth round, but most mocks have him going in the third round. (Photo: Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network)
C Luke Wypler
Round 2, No. 57, New York Giants: 2 (Cummings, McKessy)
Round 2, No. 61, Chicago Bears: 1 (Draft Tek)
Round 3, No. 64, Chicago Bears: 1 (Wilson)
Round 3, No. 65, Houston Texans: 1 (Hodgkinson)
Round 3, No. 68, Denver Broncos: 1 (Easterling)
Round 3, No. 69, Las Vegas Raiders: 1 (Menendez)
Round 3, No. 71, New Orleans Saints: 1 (Tankathon)
Round 3, No. 72, Tennessee Titans: 1 (Trapasso)
Round 3, No. 83, Seattle Seahawks: 1 (Popejoy)
Round 3, No. 88, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1 (Hallam)
Round 3, No. 90, New York Giants: 1 (Brown)
Round 3, No. 96, Kansas City Chiefs: 1 (Edwards)
Round 3, No. 102, New York Jets: 1 (Mellor)
Round 4, No. 133, Chicago Bears: 1 (Brugler)
The only projection repeated in multiple mocks in this roundup has the Giants selecting Wypler with their second-round pick to address their need at center. Three other mock drafts have the Bears drafting Wypler to snap the ball to Justin Fields, though those projections vary between the second, third and fourth rounds.
As with Harrison, the consensus among mock drafters is that Wypler will be drafted in the third round, where he lands in 11 of the 16 mocks that included at least three rounds. So it would be a surprise if Wypler doesn’t hear his name called on Day 2.
S Ronnie Hickman
Round 3, No. 101, Cincinnati Bengals: 1 (Mellor)
Round 5, No. 138, Indianapolis Colts: 1 (Trapasso)
Round 5, No. 158, Minnesota Vikings: 1 (Menendez)
Round 6, No. 182, Los Angeles Rams: 1 (Draft Tek)
Round 6, No. 189, Los Angeles Rams: 1 (Wilson)
Round 6, No. 215, Washington Commanders: 1 (Edwards)
Round 7, No. 218, Chicago Bears: 1 (Brugler)
Round 7, No. 246, Cincinnati Bengals: 1 (Cummings)
The consensus remains that Hickman will be drafted, as he shows up in eight of the nine mock drafts in this roundup that include a full seven rounds. There’s no consensus on when Hickman will be drafted, however, as his projections range from the late third round to the late seventh round (with the Bengals, who hosted Hickman at their local pro day this week, projected to draft Hickman in both instances).
Most seven-round mock drafts have Hickman being selected somewhere between the fifth and seventh rounds, which seems like his most likely draft range after he was unable to work out at either the NFL Scouting Combine or Ohio State’s pro day following a disappointing end to his final season at Ohio State. Aside from the Bengals, one other team projected to select him in multiple mocks is the Rams, which would pair him with fellow former Ohio State safety Jordan Fuller in their secondary.
K Noah Ruggles
Round 6, No. 189, Los Angeles Rams: 1 (Mellor)
Round 7, No. 222, San Francisco 49ers: 1 (Menendez)
Realistically, it would be surprising if Ruggles gets drafted, considering he didn’t even attend Ohio State’s pro day. While his 90.2% conversion rate on field goals across two seasons as a Buckeye is reason for teams in need of a kicker to give him a look, he doesn’t have a big leg by NFL standards, making it more likely he’ll have to earn his way onto a roster as an undrafted free agent if he’s going to play in the league.
If Ruggles is to be drafted, the Rams and 49ers would be logical landing spots. The Rams currently don’t have a single specialist on their roster – yes, you read that correctly – and the 49ers have not re-signed Robbie Gould, their kicker of the last six years.
CB Cameron Brown
Round 6, No. 215, Washington Commanders: 1 (Menendez)
Round 7, No. 220, Las Vegas Raiders: 1 (Edwards)
Round 7, No. 246, Cincinnati Bengals: 2 (Hallam, Trapasso)
After making zero mock drafts in the last roundup, Brown gets more recognition this time around as he appears in four of the nine seven-round mock drafts. All of them have Brown coming off the board in either the sixth or seventh round, with two of those mocks pairing Brown with the Cincinnati Bengals – a logical match considering the Bengals hosted Brown for a pre-draft visit.
S Tanner McCalister
Round 7, No. 244, Dallas Cowboys: 1 (Hallam)
For the second roundup in a row, McCalister appears in one seven-round mock as a seventh-round pick, with Draft Countdown’s Shane Hallam projecting the Dallas Cowboys will draft McCalister – who grew up just outside of Dallas in Rockwall, Texas – with their seventh-round pick to add to their secondary depth.
Ohio State’s other draft hopefuls – defensive tackles Jerron Cage and Taron Vincent, linebacker Palaie Gaoteote, fullback/tight end Mitch Rossi and long snapper Bradley Robinson – did not appear in any of the mock drafts we surveyed for this roundup.
