Welcome to the Skull Session.
Ohio State football is almost here.
one Saturday closer pic.twitter.com/fGgbnHDTvY
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) July 15, 2023
We are one week closer, folks.
Let's have a good Monday, shall we?
A PLAYERS COACH. Last week, Fox Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt blessed the Ohio State football media with 26 minutes of Ryan Day content. We covered all of it here at Eleven Warriors, including Day's comments on the new College Football Playoff format, NCAA targeting rules, coaches he respects and admires and uniformity in conference schedules across college football.
After the “Big Noon Conversations“ episode was posted on YouTube, Klatt reflected on the interview with Day on "The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast" and made some remarks about Day, complimenting him for his character and personality:
"If my son was ever good enough to play at this level, I would be like... absolutely, you could go play for Ryan Day." @joelklatt reacts to his Big Noon Conversation with @OhioStateFB Head Coach @ryandaytime pic.twitter.com/fYv0MsgAjR
— The Joel Klatt Show: A CFB Pod (@JoelKlattShow) July 14, 2023
"This week, we talked with Ryan Day. It was a great conversation. Ryan is one of those guys – there are a few of these guys out there, and I have said this about others, so I am not shy about saying this – he is one of those guys where, if my son were ever good enough to play at this level, I would be like, 'Absolutely, you can go play for Ryan Day.' He's that good of a person. So that's number one. I knew I wanted his voice on this series.
"And then we started talking about some really important subjects within the sport. In particular, the calendar, and what it's doing to coaches and why that's hard, not only for them personally but also in terms of roster construction... some of the influences in his career path and some of the coaches he respects across the country... And don't worry, Ohio State fans, I asked him about the rules on the field, including targeting."
After hearing Klatt's comments, I am ready to present Day with a Skull Session Good Guy Award™ (It's an actual award – don't look it up).
I understand there are differing opinions on Day's on-field performance at Ohio State, especially after back-to-back regular seasons that ended in losses to Michigan. Still, there should be no question about Day's off-field character and personality. Ask his coaching staff, players and national media personalities, and they will all claim he has a heart of gold. If he leads the Buckeyes past the Wolverines in 2023 and manages to win a national championship down the road, there will be no questions about his on-field efforts, either. A coach who is the best of both worlds? Now that's someone Buckeye Nation could get used to.
NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND! Klatt expressed his confidence in Day now and in the foreseeable future. Dennis Dodd, however, pulled a Lee Corso and said, “Not so fast, my friend!” Well, kind of.
| RATING | WHAT IT MEANS |
|---|---|
| 5 | WIN OR BE FIRED |
| 4 | START IMPROVING NOW |
| 3 | PRESSURE IS MOUNTING |
| 2 | ALL GOOD... FOR NOW |
| 1 | SAFE AND SECURE |
| 0 | UNTOUCHABLE |
In a recent article for CBS Sports, Dodd ranked all 133 FBS head coaches in six tiers between “Untouchable” and “Win or be fired“ in his annual College Football Hot Seat Rankings. As you can imagine, the Nick Sabans, Kirby Smarts and Dabo Swinneys of the world are rated as “Untouchable.” Ryan Day was, too, at one point. But not this year. In 2023, Dodd ranked Day in the third tier, “All good... for now.”
Here is where Dodd placed all Big Ten coaches in the rankings:
- Jim Harbaugh, Michigan: 0
- Bret Bielema, Illinois: 1
- P.J. Fleck, Minnesota: 1
- Matt Rhule, Nebraska: 1
- James Franklin, Penn State: 1
- Luke Fickell, Wisconsin: 1
- Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: 2
- Mike Locksley, Maryland: 2
- Ryan Day, Ohio State: 2
- Ryan Walters, Purdue: 2
- Greg Schiano, Rutgers: 2
- Mel Tucker, Michigan State: 3
- Tom Allen, Indiana: 5
While it's well-known that Day needs to remove the Michigan-sized monkey off his back and defeat the Wolverines in 2023, I'm not sure how I feel about Day being in the same tier as Ferentz, Locksley, Walters and Schiano.
Ferentz's nepotism will lead to his demise with the Hawkeyes. Unless Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State implodes, the Terrapins will finish no higher than fourth in the Big Ten East next fall and remain below .500 in the Locksley Era. Walters is a first-year head coach, so we'll wait and see how he does. And Schiano – well, actually, Schiano, like Day, should be ranked higher. The man is the Rutgers football program. They are at least somewhat respectable with him.
Ohio State head coaches must beat Michigan. There are no ifs, ands or buts about it. But, and I am breaking the third of those rules here, Day has led the Buckeyes to a 45-6 record with two Big Ten championships and three College Football Playoff appearances in his first four seasons as head coach. Therefore, it feels like he should receive more credit than Ferentz, Locksley, Walters and Schiano. But that's life as Ohio State's head coach, I guess.
Life with Ryan Day is all good... for now. Just beat Michigan.
THE BIGGEST OF CFPS. The Buckeyes fell you-know-what backward into the CFP in 2022 after Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes defeated Lincoln Riley and USC, 47-24, in the Pac-12 Championship.
Coach Day, you're welcome. pic.twitter.com/J2Bj5RSeVW
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) December 3, 2022
Ohio State, who lost to Michigan and failed to reach the Big Ten Championship for the second consecutive season, earned the No. 4 seed and a battle with top-seeded Georgia in the Peach Bowl. The Wolverines, who claimed their second straight conference title, earned the No. 2 seed and a matchup with TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. This marked the first time in the CFP era that the Big Ten sent two teams to the playoff in the same season.
Last week, ESPN’s Heather Dinich used a computer – the worldwide leader in sports' Football Power Index – and her brain to determine which conferences will have the best chance to land two teams in the playoff in 2023. Here are her results:
- SEC: 51%
- Big Ten: 25%
- ACC: >1%
- Pac-12: >1%
- Big 12: >1%
In nine seasons of the CFP, which was kicked off by an incredible national championship run from Ohio State in 2014, a conference has earned two bids four times. The SEC has done it twice with Alabama and Georgia in 2017 and 2021. The ACC has done it once with Clemson and temporary league member Notre Dame in 2020. And the Big Ten has done it once with Michigan and Ohio State in 2022.
Here was Dinich's case for the SEC receiving two bids in 2023:
The committee has shown over the past decade it holds the SEC in high regard, and the conference has had multiple teams reach the playoff before — multiple times. Georgia doesn’t face Alabama or LSU during the regular season, so the SEC avoids a guaranteed loss for what should be one of its three best teams before the SEC championship game. It can happen if Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama or LSU roll through the regular season undefeated but lose in the SEC title game. It can also happen if Alabama doesn’t win the SEC but finishes with one loss and has a win over Big 12 champion Texas. Or if LSU doesn’t win the SEC, but finishes with one loss — at Alabama — and has a win over ACC champ Florida State.
As for the Big Ten, Dinich wrote that Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State could all contend for a CFP bid in 2023, which boosted the conference's odds in her exercise:
The Big Ten did it last year, and Ohio State and Michigan have similar teams returning, with the most glaring exception being a new starting quarterback at Ohio State. The chances should be bumped marginally because Penn State has the talent and opportunity to join one of them in the debate. The Nittany Lions will have home-field advantage Nov. 11 against Michigan, where a win could create a three-way tie in the Big Ten East Division if Ohio State beats Penn State and Michigan beats Ohio State. Beyond winning the Big Ten, PSU’s ideal scenario would be to claim a win over the eventual Big Ten champs in a three-way tie, or the committee’s highest-ranked Big Ten team.
As I look over Dinich's report, whatever pro-Big Ten feelings I have are immediately drowned out by anti-Michigan ones. If there were to be any scenario in which two Big Ten teams reach the CFP in 2023, please let it be Ohio State and Penn State. I can at least stomach a Nittany Lions CFP appearance. As for the other team, well, I think everyone in Buckeye Nation would prefer they watch the playoff from home.
AN ALL-TIME BAD TAKE. Rivals posted an all-time bad take in the form of an all-time Ohio State clickbait over the weekend. Have a look:
Does Wisconsin have the best WR room in the Big Ten?@DubJellison takes a look:https://t.co/gHgOAM6Gmr pic.twitter.com/cKAWJ7PaEc
— Rivals (@Rivals) July 16, 2023
Ohio State's wide receivers are Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming, Xavier Johnson, Jayden Ballard, Kyion Grayes, Caleb Burton, Kojo Antwi, Brandon Inniss, Carnell Tate, Noah Rogers and Bryson Rodgers.
Wisconsin's wide receivers are Chimere Dike, Skyler Bell, Keontez Lewis, Vinny Anthony, Chris Brooks Jr., Markus Allen, C.J. Williams, Quincy Burroughs and Bryson Green, among others.
There's no comparison here.
Nice try, Rivals.
SONG OF THE DAY. “Chlorine” by Twenty One Pilots.
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