Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Betting Lines for Ohio State vs. Youngstown State

One of the main reasons Buckeye fans feel entitled to take shots at the SEC rests with the fact that many perennial contenders in the conference make a habit of scheduling November games against FCS opponents in the idea of protecting their late-season interests. By contrast, Ohio State's meeting with Youngstown State this weekend will serve as only the fourth time the Buckeyes have played an FCS school across at least the last 30 years — the most recent instance occurring a decade ago.

The combination of remaining near the start of the 2023 season and a lack of historically reliable matchup data make identifying any potentially profitable betting trends difficult this week. Even so, framing this OSU/YSU showdown through a few different betting angles reveals some interesting insight about the Buckeye program's recent historical performance on spreads and point totals against other in-state teams.

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider this week's sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Youngstown State.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -41.5

No major sportsbooks made a spread available for this game prior to Thursday – a far cry from the usual timing of Sunday line drops granted to Buckeye fans across the country. The lofty 41.5-point margin sounds daunting at a moment's notice given how badly Ohio State missed covering last week, but it makes a bit more sense given the program's last showdown against an FCS side.

It has been nearly 10 years since that fateful first half when Kenny Guiton tossed six touchdown passes against Florida A&M in 2013 in what went on to become a 76-0 win. That game closed with a spread of 50 points, which Urban Meyer must have considered amusing in hindsight.

The only two other instances across the last three decades of Buckeye football in which the program has paired off with an FCS-caliber team came in a 2007-08 back-to-back series with Youngstown State while Jim Tressel still served as OSU head coach. There are no records of betting lines that exist for either of those games, which Ohio State won by a combined score of 81-6.

The lack of similar previous results makes identifying a trend relative to the current line a bit more unclear. For the sake of finding a relevant comparison, let's consider Ohio State's previous performances as a home favorite against other in-state opponents.

That analysis reveals that over roughly the last three decades, the Buckeyes have a 16-10 record against the spread (ATS) when hosting another school from the state of Ohio. The win rate of ~61% may surprise some speculative bettors given the assertion of dominance that persists within fan narratives relative to outcomes against in-state opponents over the last century.

More specifically relevant to the line of the upcoming weekend, Ohio State owns a 1-2 ATS record since the 1990s when hosting in-state FBS teams as a 40+ point favorite.

If you want to include the Florida A&M game among relevant results to this line given its FCS distinction, that brings the record of similar outcomes against the spread to 2-2 for Ohio State. Although no line data exists for OSU's prior games against YSU, the Buckeyes won by margins of 43 and 32, respectively – the former ending in a shutout. A ho-hum 3-3 record ATS hardly provides more certainty, especially given the early sputters the current offense encountered last week at Indiana.

In searching for a positive spin against the spread this weekend, consider that Ohio State's most recent results under similar circumstances have yielded success. The last game against an FCS opponent for Ohio State resulted in a 76-point victory, and Ryan Day's only previous encounter with a 40-point spread opposite an in-state opponent resulted in a double-digit cover only two years ago.

The Total: 56.5

The delayed spread resulted in a similarly delayed release of the point total, but an over/under of 56.5 points was finally released by multiple sportsbooks on Friday. Oddsmakers apparently struggled what to make of Ohio State's offensive struggle out of the gates in contrast to the defense now facing a presumably less talented group than the Hoosiers squad last week that managed merely a field goal.

There were no point totals available to bet on for any of the Buckeyes’ previous games against FCS schools, but there were for several of Ohio State’s games against in-state opponents while serving as home favorites across roughly the last two-and-a-half decades. Under those circumstances, the over and under have each cashed nine times. This continues the remarkable dead-evenness across the search for a relevant betting trend favorable to one side in a matchup featuring OSU against lower-tier local competition.

It is also important to consider that the two previous instances in which the Buckeyes faced the Penguins saw the head coach of the winning team go easy on a school he obviously held great sympathy toward. That was not only evident at the time given Jim Tressel's previous tenure with Youngstown State, but later further vindicated by the fact that Tressel served as their university president until as recently as this past February. In the 43-0 shutout the last time these two teams met, three Buckeye quarterbacks saw the field and six rushers carried the ball at least four times apiece.

The early points of correction in the offense combined with conflicting relevant historical trends make investing in a point total an unwise decision here. Youngstown State hardly seems more equipped to find the end zone than Indiana, but it remains to be seen whether the Buckeye offense will elect to press down on the gas with front-line talent or ration out game experience to the entire unit.

Prop to Watch: TBD

As of Friday, there were no player prop lines available for this game. No word on whether or not that has anything to do with sore loser anytime-TD bettors lamenting the overturned score Marvin Harrison Jr. had last weekend against Indiana, even with the Big Ten overruling the touchdown should have counted.

The previous section alluded to a need to exercise caution when wagering on offensive production in matchups with obvious skill discrepancies. Favored teams in many cases may opt to shelve their most talented on-field producers earlier on in the interest of protecting their health or bringing along other prospects with an opportunity to succeed.

Surprisingly, this was not something that took place last week during Harrison Jr.'s momentary injury scare in the first half, but Route Man Marv's anytime touchdown bettors likely felt their hearts beating beyond their chests as they watched Ohio State's star receive medical attention to his arm. Those same investors still had to harbor the heartbreak of that prop not landing later on, as well.

Keep in mind each coach's desire to protect players from undue risk in the context of selecting prop wagers available within obvious blowout circumstances. As the current season unfolds, also continue to factor in how the recent change to the clock-stoppage rules affect the rhythm of college football games by either forcing more rapid offensive pacing (which speeds up the decision-making process and potential for mistakes) or a lower total of offensive snaps and play calls.

In some cases, the most profitable move a sports bettor can make is not to play at all. This weekend has the read of one better served as a fan than a bettor. Enjoy the Ohio State football home opener, take note of improvements relative to last week and leave the stress of investment for more certain results that will take shape as the campaign continues to progress.

Good luck, go Buck$.