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It’s tempting to look ahead to what’s next on the schedule for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes still have to take care of business this week first.
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WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS |
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2-0 ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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4 P.M. – SATURDAY, SEPT. 16 OHIO STADIUM COLUMBUS, OHIO |
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FOX FOX SPORTS |
Next week, Ohio State heads to South Bend to play Notre Dame in one of the most anticipated games of the first month of the college football season. With the Fighting Irish being one of three teams on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule currently ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll, the Buckeyes’ final game of September will come with major College Football Playoff implications and serve as a measuring stick of how good Ohio State actually is this season.
This week, however, will bring a test of its own for the Buckeyes. While Ohio State is heavily favored to beat Western Kentucky, a Group of 5 school that is just 3-17 against Power 5 opponents over the last 10 years, the Hilltoppers are coming to town with a passing offense that ranks among the nation’s best – a stark contrast from Indiana and Youngstown State, who both utilized run-heavy offensive game plans in Ohio State’s first two games of the season.
Coupling that with Ohio State’s decision this week to name Kyle McCord as its full-time starting quarterback, which should allow McCord and the offense around him to get into more of a rhythm, Saturday’s game against Western Kentucky should paint a clearer picture of where the Buckeyes stack up on both sides of the ball going into their first marquee game of the season.
“It’s going to be a whole different game, almost the opposite spectrum of what we experienced the last couple of weeks,” Ryan Day said Thursday. “So excited to get on the field Saturday and see how this game shakes out. They’re going to kind of throw it all over the place, play fast and we got an opportunity to kind of see where our growth’s at.”
The Headlines
A Real Test for the Pass Defense
Ohio State’s passing defense has statistically been one of the best in the country so far this season, holding its first two opponents to only 217 combined passing yards, but neither of those opponents threw the ball frequently while one of them was an FCS program. This week will serve as an actual gauge of whether Ohio State’s pass defense has improved as the Buckeyes go up against a Western Kentucky offense that led the FBS in passing yards a year ago (4,929) and has thrown for 654 yards and seven touchdowns through two games this year.
“I think it's a big test. I really do,” Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said. “This is an offense that will attack on the perimeter and downfield. We had some issues with that last year. We've gotten better in our first couple games in terms of explosive plays and minimizing that, but we haven't really been tested yet. So this will be important.”
While Ohio State held its first two opponents to just one score each, that will be a tougher task against a Western Kentucky team that’s averaging 46.5 points per game and has yet to turn the ball over through its first two games of the year. But the Buckeyes say they’re ready to embrace that challenge.
“We’re gonna challenge all throws, man,” Ohio State secondary coach Tim Walton said. “We gotta be able to go play. And if a quarterback is gonna try to thread the ball, he trusts his arm strength, he's gonna make those throws, we gotta be attacking the ball at all times, and with that hopefully we get some turnovers with that also.”
Offense Looks to Build Rhythm with McCord
Ohio State currently ranks just 53rd nationally in yards per game (431) and 71st in the FBS in points per game (29), a far cry from the top-10 rankings the Buckeyes have perennially had in Ryan Day’s head coaching tenure. While Ohio State’s offense was sharper in Week 2 than it was in Week 1, its 35 points against Youngstown State were still an underwhelming mark compared to Ohio State’s recent standards.
Several factors have contributed to Ohio State’s underwhelming offensive start, including an inexperienced offensive line and the combination of teams trying to run out the clock against the Buckeyes with college football’s new rule that keeps the clock running after first downs. But perhaps the biggest factor was the quarterback competition that continued through the first two weeks of the season as McCord and Devin Brown split reps in both practices and games. Now that McCord has been named the firm starter, this week should give us our first opportunity to see him run the offense uninterrupted, at least until the game is comfortably in hand.
While the Buckeyes’ ultimate goal is simply to win every game, they’re far from satisfied with how they’ve performed offensively thus far, so they’re certainly driven to coalesce around McCord and improve their efficiency this week. Playing against Western Kentucky should offer an opportunity to do so, as the Hilltoppers currently rank 121st nationally in total defense (456.5 yards allowed per game) and 131st in rushing defense (267 yards allowed per game).
“I feel like we all elevated our game, and we're gonna continue to do so throughout the weeks, so we're looking forward to playing Western Kentucky,” Emeka Egbuka said Wednesday. “We got a great game plan, so shout out to the coaches for that, and we're just looking to execute and play hard.”
Final Tune-Up for Notre Dame
More Ohio State vs. Western Kentucky Coverage
Although Western Kentucky is good enough that Ohio State needs to avoid looking past this week’s opponent – the Hilltoppers have won nine games in three of their first four seasons under head coach Tyson Helton – it’s still reality that this week’s game will be viewed through the lens of whether the Buckeyes are ready for the challenge of playing Notre Dame next week.
With this being the final opportunity for the Buckeyes to get game reps before they play a top-10 team, it’s important for Ohio State to work through its lingering issues on both sides of the ball this week, from its subpar third-down efficiency on offense to its lack of pass rush on defense.
The Buckeyes have been able to get away with playing below their potential the last two weeks and still win convincingly, and they might be able to do so again this week. But they won’t be able to do that much longer, making it all the more important for Ohio State to find its A-game.
“We're growing, we're getting better, but certainly a ways to go,” Day said. “Our emphasis this week is just having a ridiculous amount of urgency when we show up every single day to try to get better. And that's all you can do. But looking to ratchet up every area of the game.”
Keep An Eye on These Guys
QB Austin Reed
The dangerous nature of Western Kentucky’s passing offense starts with Reed, who led the entire FBS with 4,744 passing yards in 2022. A 6-foot-2, 220-pound sixth-year senior who transferred to WKU from West Florida before the 2022 season, Reed is an efficient passer to all levels off the field who also shows the mobility to extend plays outside the pocket and run the ball himself when needed.
Day, who has been an NFL quarterbacks coach himself, described Reed as an “NFL player” this week.
“His story is pretty interesting, where he came from and just in terms of wasn't a highly recruited guy, he’s had to earn everything he's had to get, and that's usually the right recipe for a really good quarterback,” Day said. “He's accurate, he gets the ball out of his hand. You can tell he's very, very intelligent, has good vision. So really good challenge for our defense this week.”
WR Malachi Corley
While Reed spreads the ball around to a variety of targets in a Western Kentucky offense that often plays with four or even five wide receivers on the field, Corley is the receiver Ohio State will need to account for on every single snap. He was one of the best wide receivers in all of college football a year ago, catching 101 passes for 1,293 yards to rank fourth in the FBS in both categories.
A speedy and shifty 5-foot-11, 210-pound receiver who lines up primarily in the slot, Corley had nearly 300 more yards after the catch (975) and forced more missed tackles (40) than any other receiver in college football in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus. So with Reed sure to look to get the ball into his top playmaker’s hands frequently, Ohio State defenders need to be sound tacklers whenever he does get the ball.
“He's good with run after catch, so we have to make sure we're driving on the ball, we’re wrap-tackling with him,” Walton said. “He's a big guy, he’s 210 pounds. They move him around, he'll be in different locations, we gotta know where he's located and we gotta make sure we wrap-tackle him well and we gotta make sure we’re contesting all the throws because we know they’re gonna try to get him the ball.”
OLB JaQues Evans
Although Western Kentucky has more firepower on the offensive side of the ball than it does defensively, one Hilltopper who is more than capable of doing damage on the defensive side of the ball is Evans, who plays in a Jack linebacker role similar to the one Jim Knowles utilized at Ohio State last season.
Evans has been a consistent playmaker in that role for Western Kentucky, leading the Hilltoppers with 106 total tackles, 14 tackles for loss and nine sacks in 2022. The 6-foot-2, 250-pound outside linebacker has already made his presence felt in a big way this season by scoring a touchdown in WKU’s season-opening win over South Florida, stealing the ball out of USF quarterback Byrum Brown’s hands and running it 27 yards to the end zone for a touchdown.
For Ohio State’s still-inexperienced starting offensive tackle duo of Josh Simmons and Josh Fryar, blocking Evans effectively on the edge and keeping him out of the backfield will be a top priority this week.
Game Week Talk
“It feels like a test, but every game’s a test for us. So we're just excited to show everybody what we're capable of.”– Ohio State cornerback Jordan Hancock
Hancock, who is likely to be tasked with covering Corley regularly on Saturday as Ohio State’s slot cornerback, says he and his fellow OSU defensive backs are looking forward to the challenge of facing Western Kentucky’s passing offense, describing it as an opportunity to “make plays and kind of showcase the world how talented we are.”
“Our team likes to play against the best, and they’re certainly the best.”– Western Kentucky coach Tyson Helton
Helton says his team is embracing the challenge of playing at Ohio State this week, describing the opportunity to play one of the top teams in the country as “what college football is all about.”
“I guess God really wants me to play in the Shoe, because he's bringing me back again.”– Western Kentucky receiver Blue Smith on returning to Ohio State
A Huber Heights, Ohio native who started his college football career at Ohio State in 2018 before transferring to Cincinnati in 2019 and again to Western Kentucky this year, Smith said he expects to be “full of emotions” as he returns to Ohio Stadium on Saturday. He did not see any playing time when Cincinnati played at Ohio State in 2019, which he said “broke my heart,” so he’s “gonna try to do everything I can to play well” this time around.
| Ohio State | Pos | Western Kentucky |
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| OFFENSE | ||
| KYLE MCCORD | QB | AUSTIN REED |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | DAVION ERVIN-POINDEXTER |
| MARVIN HARRISON JR. | WR | BLUE SMITH |
| JULIAN FLEMING | WR | DALVIN SMITH |
| EMEKA EGBUKA | WR | MALACHI CORLEY |
| CADE STOVER | TE | RIVER HELMS |
| JOSH SIMMONS | LT | MARK GOODE |
| DONOVAN JACKSON | LG | QUANTAVIOUS LESLIE |
| CARSON HINZMAN | C | VINCENT MURPHY |
| MATT JONES | RG | WESLEY HORTON |
| JOSH FRYAR | RT | WES DORSEY |
| DEFENSE | ||
| JT TUIMOLOAU | DE | NIKO COOPER |
| MIKE HALL | DT | HOSEA WHEELER |
| TY HAMILTON | DT | KENYONTE DAVIS |
| JACK SAWYER | DE/JACK | JAQUES EVANS |
| STEELE CHAMBERS | WLB | ANTHONY BRACKENRIDGE |
| TOMMY EICHENBERG | MLB | AARON KEY |
| SONNY STYLES | NB | ROME WEBER |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | UPTON STOUT |
| DAVISON IGBINOSUN | CB | ANTHONY JOHNSON JR. |
| JOSH PROCTOR | FS | TALIQUE ALLEN |
| LATHAN RANSOM | SS | KENDRICK SIMPKINS |
Get Smart
- Saturday’s game will be the first-ever matchup between Ohio State and Western Kentucky.
- Wide receivers Blue Smith (Huber Heights) and Craig Burt Jr. (Columbus) are Western Kentucky’s only players from Ohio. Ohio State’s 2023 roster does not include any players from Kentucky.
- Western Kentucky’s roster includes 51 players – 45% of the entire roster – who transferred from other schools.
- Ohio State has won its last 67 consecutive games against non-Power 5 schools. Its last loss to a non-Power 5 team came against Air Force in the 1990 Liberty Bowl.
- Ohio State has never lost a game against a Conference USA school. New Mexico State, the only other current member of C-USA that Ohio State has played, suffered a 45-0 loss to Ohio State in 2009.
- Ohio State and Western Kentucky both won national championships in 2002. Western Kentucky, which was an FCS member at the time, won its only national championship that season.
How It Plays Out
Line: Ohio State -29.5, O/U 65.5
Theoretically, Ohio State should be in line for its highest-scoring game of the season to date against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers’ faster-paced, pass-heavy offense should lead to more possessions for the Buckeyes than they got in their first two games, and their defense should be overmatched by Ohio State’s offense, especially if the Buckeyes can get into a more consistent rhythm with McCord taking all the first-team snaps.
That said, Western Kentucky has done a solid job of limiting opposing scoring despite the yardage it has allowed, holding its first two opponents to an average of 23 points. Neither South Florida nor Houston Christian has the offensive firepower that Ohio State does, but the Buckeyes will need to be more efficient than they’ve been – particularly on third downs – to put a big number on the scoreboard. They’ll also need to be careful to avoid turnovers, as Western Kentucky already has six takeaways this year and led the nation with 32 a year ago.
Western Kentucky’s offense, meanwhile, won’t be as easy for the Buckeyes to stifle as their first two opponents. While Ohio State’s defense will be motivated to show that its improvement is for real, the Hilltoppers could expose flaws in pass coverage that Indiana and Youngstown State did not, and they haven’t been held to single digits in a game since 2020.
With all of that in mind, every member of the Eleven Warriors staff predicts Ohio State will score between 35-49 points and give up between 10-21 points this week. None of our staffers expect Western Kentucky to come within 21 points of beating the Buckeyes, but only four of our 13 staffers believe Ohio State will cover the spread, as the Hilltoppers’ playmaking ability on both sides of the ball could keep things tight enough to give the Buckeyes an early scare and prevent the game from becoming a runaway.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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45 | 17 |
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