The tuneup games are over as a trip to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish awaits Ryan Day's squad in just three sleeps.
Ohio State finally dominated an inferior opponent last Saturday, smashing Western Kentucky, 63-10, behind an offensive attack that ran the ball for 204 yards and three scores on 6.2 yards per carry while throwing it for another 358 yards with four touchdowns on a 13.3 yards per attempt.
This week, the opposing defense figures to put up significantly more resistance as the Irish currently slot No. 14 nationally allowing just 11.8 points per game while giving up a mere 114 passing yards per contest, good for 4th-best in the country, albeit via a small sample size.
Historically, Day's game plans have favored the pass, sometimes raising questions as to whether he's too reliant on his aerial attacks at the expense of abandoning the run game, particularly against top-10 opponents. That said, you can't argue the offense's elite skill position talent over the last many years has resided in the quarterback and receiver rooms.
During his weekly press conference on Tuesday, Day sounded like a guy who knows winning a game doesn't happen on paper and while run/pass balance is a cursory goal, winning the game is what matters most.
"We have to do whatever we can to win the game, whatever it looks like. ... We want balance ... but then there's also times where you need to throw it a lot to win."– Ryan Day on Ohio State's offense
Considering his comment, I looked back at the 11 top-10 matchups the Buckeyes have played during the Day era (opponent was ranked in top-10 at the time of the game) to see if there's much to glean from the run/pass metrics.
There's no question the general trend of Day favoring the pass usually holds up regardless of the opponent's ranking.
Sporting a 6-5 record against top-10 teams during his tenure-to-date, the numbers say Day offenses have been more balanced in the six wins and more reliant on the pass during the five losses. But the numbers don't always tell the full story.
| YEAR | OPPONENT | RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | PASS ATT | PASS YDS | TOT YDS | % RUSH YDS | % PASS YDS | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | (1) GEORGIA | 32 | 119 | 34 | 348 | 467 | 25.5% | 74.5% | L: 42-41 |
| 2022 | (3) MICHIGAN | 29 | 143 | 48 | 349 | 492 | 29.1% | 70.9% | L: 45-23 |
| 2022 | (5) NOTRE DAME | 35 | 172 | 34 | 223 | 295 | 43.5% | 56.5% | W: 21-10 |
| 2021 | (5) MICHIGAN | 30 | 64 | 49 | 394 | 458 | 14.0% | 86.0% | L: 42-27 |
| 2021 | (7) MICHIGAN ST. | 43 | 206 | 43 | 449 | 655 | 31.5% | 68.5% | W: 56-7 |
| 2020 | (1) ALABAMA | 29 | 147 | 33 | 194 | 341 | 43.1% | 56.9% | L: 52-24 |
| 2020 | (2) CLEMSON | 44 | 254 | 28 | 385 | 639 | 39.7% | 60.3% | W: 49-28 |
| 2020 | (9) INDIANA | 50 | 307 | 30 | 300 | 607 | 50.6% | 49.4% | W: 42-35 |
| 2019 | (3) CLEMSON | 39 | 196 | 46 | 320 | 516 | 38.0% | 62.0% | L: 29-23 |
| 2019 | (8) WISCONSIN | 46 | 172 | 32 | 320 | 492 | 35.0% | 65.0% | W: 34-21 |
| 2019 | (8) PENN STATE | 61 | 229 | 22 | 188 | 417 | 54.9% | 45.1% | W: 28-17 |
| ALL 11 GAMES | 438 | 2,009 | 399 | 3,470 | 5,479 | 36.7% | 63.3% | ||
| 6 WINS | 279 | 1,340 | 189 | 1,865 | 3,205 | 41.8% | 58.2% | ||
| 5 LOSSES | 159 | 669 | 210 | 1,605 | 2,274 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
Five of the six wins saw Ohio State run the ball for at least 35% of its total offensive yardage. The run game accounted for over 50% of the total yards in two of those six - a 2020 win over then-No. 9 Indiana and a 2019 victory over then-No. 8 Pen State.
The five losses to top-10 teams under Day saw the Buckeyes run for anywhere from 14-43% of the team's total offense. Ohio State's run game accounted for just 14% and 29% of the offense's yardage in the 2021 and 2022 losses to Michigan.
In the six wins, Ohio State averaged 46 rushing attempts per game for 4.8 yards per carry. In the five losses, the run game tallied 32 carries per game for an average of 4.2 per try.
Looking at the passing game, Day's offenses averaged 58% of the total yards coming via the air in the six wins compared to almost 71% of the total yards coming via the pass in the five losses.
Passing yardage exceeded 65% of the total offense in just two of those six wins - Michigan State in 2021 and Wisconsin in 2019. Meanwhile, passing yardage accounted for more than 65% of the total offense in three of the five losses including the defeats at the hands of Michigan and Georgia to end last season. Said differently, in those back-to-back losses, Ohio State's run game accounted for less than 30% of the team's total yardage - 25.5% versus Michigan and 29.1% versus Georgia.
Again, myriad factors go into game planning and ultimately play calling, and none of this even considers the caliber of Ohio State's defense in a given year, but since I was curious about the run/pass splits I thought you might be too.
Bottom line, Day and the Buckeyes are focused on coming back home with a win over the Irish no matter how it's achieved but being able to run the ball, and therefore strike more balance, seems to generally help the cause against top-10 opponents.
