Fresh off an open week, Ryan Day's Ohio State Buckeyes put their 4-0 record on the line tomorrow against another undefeated foe in the form of Mike Locksley's Maryland Terrapins.
The Terps haven't exactly faced a daunting schedule thus far but there's reason to believe the 20-point 'dogs can make things interesting if Ohio State looks like a team groggy off an open date. Instead, Day's charge is to ensure the Buckeyes come out rejuvenated and ready to build on the momentum gained from a top-10 win over Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago.
Can the Buckeyes keep Maryland's dynamic quarterback in check? Is Kyle McCord ready to take another step in his development? Have you ever been in a Turkish prison?
For answers to (most of) these questions, I welcome 11W's own Garrick Hodge, Andy Anders and George Eisner to this week's roundtable.
Ohio State’s No. 5 ranked pass defense figures to face its stiffest to date as Maryland comes in averaging 297 yards per game through the air, good for 19th-nationally thanks largely to quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. Tua’s younger brother leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns through five games. Against FBS competition thus far, Ohio State is holding opponents to an average of 110 yards below their passing game average. Will the Buckeyes pass the Taulia Test? Will Ohio State be able to generate a pass rush to disrupt things? What kind of day do you expect from Tagovailoa through the air?
Andy: The short answer, for me at least, is yes. Ohio State’s secondary, in my opinion, is the best it has looked since 2019 when Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, Shaun Wade (the slot version) and Jordan Fuller were slowing opposing passing attacks. I still have lingering concerns about physical run games like Notre Dame presented as that game wore on, but against the pass my confidence is growing that this back end is among the nation’s elite.
As pass rush goes, I think this is the game that we finally see either JT Tuimoloau or Jack Sawyer get a sack. Perhaps multiple. Maryland throws the ball 35.8 times per game, 27th-most in the nation, and even with Tagovailoa’s ability to evade and scramble I think there will be consistent pressure and the Buckeyes get home a few times.
I still expect Tagovailoa to accomplish a few things tossing the rock, eclipsing 200 yards, but not touching 300 or threatening in a way that puts the game into question.
Garrick: I really like Taulia a lot as a passer, especially when he's able to get outside the pocket and throw on the run. That said, I think Ohio State's defense is legit, and frankly has more talent on it than Maryland's offense. I think Tagovailoa and company will move the ball a bit against the Buckeyes and probably score more than any other opponent has so far, but I don't think they'll do it consistently enough to stay in this game. I'd predict Tagovailoa throws for around 225 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while being sacked twice.
George: On this week's episode of the Eleven Dubcast, Kyle Jones kindly explained to Johnny Ginter and myself how the optimism surrounding early performance from the pass rush should actually serve as credit towards improvements the secondary has made. The pass rush has not yet made the most of its opportunities in the form of sacks, while defensive backs in their second year under Jim Knowles — such as Denzel Burke — have put forth a more observably successful effort through the first month of the season.
However, the harmony between pass rush and secondary cannot maintain consistency without contributions from both camps. This is especially true in a case when a defense faces an evasive and mobile quarterback. While I believe the defense as a unit will do enough to limit the effectiveness of Maryland and Taulia Tagovailoa, the key to this game staying close versus becoming a blowout will be how much pressure Larry Johnson's group can put on the Terrapin quarterback.
Last year's game saw one of its pivotal moments arrive in the form of a late sack from Zach Harrison. Hopefully for the Buckeyes, corralling the quarterback generates results more early and often this time around.
After throwing a pick in the opener against Indiana, Kyle McCord’s gone three straight games without an interception. Saturday, he’ll face a Maryland defense sporting eight interceptions through five games. Can McCord build off his first four games and take another step forward on Saturday against the Terps? Can he get the ball downfield more often while avoiding the big turnover? Any concerns over his accuracy to this point knowing his per game completion rates have ranged wildly from 57% to 83%?
George: My concerns with McCord rest more with him developing consistent check down rapport across his assortment of backfield mates than pushing the ball downfield more often. The next step in my eyes will be seeing him comfortably defer to his immediately available options in pressure situations given the elusiveness he lacks in the pocket. Having a passing connection in place behind the line of scrimmage with Henderson, Trayanum, and Williams will go a long way towards mitigating McCord's greatest shortcomings as a passer while helping further disguise Ohio State's dynamic offensive approach.
McCord's interception in the opener happened on a busted fourth down conversion attempt. His first two games were timeshare tryouts devoid of a runway to get into rhythm. Going forward, I would expect his accuracy lives up to the standards of other Buckeye quarterbacks under Ryan Day's tutelage.
Andy: I do think McCord takes another step forward Saturday. His confidence has grown every week, and with an off week to self-evaluate fresh off the biggest drive of his young career – a game-winning two-minute drill against the Fighting Irish – I expect to see a precise version of the signal caller. He should have more time to get the ball downfield.
I don’t put much stock, if any, into the gap in completion percentages considering who each of those numbers were against. McCord’s 57 percent day was against Notre Dame, one of the best defenses in college football, and his 83 percent was against Western Kentucky, who is not. Plus that 57 percent came in his first big game and truly hostile road environment.
Garrick: I think McCord has progressed every week, which is what you'd hope for from an inexperienced but talented passer. While the Maryland defense deserves some credit for limiting opponents thus far, the opponents have been very mediocre offenses, with nothing close to the skill talent OSU boasts. Also considering Maryland lost defensive backs Deonte Bennett and Jakorian Bennett to the NFL Draft last year, I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday is a 300-plus passing yard day for Ohio State's man under center.
Ohio State ran for 204 against Western Kentucky on 6.2 per try but the Hilltoppers are 125th in the country allowing 205 rush yards per game. In Ohio State’s three other contests, it averaged a weak 4.6 yards per carry and 131 yards per game. Maryland hasn’t played any offenses worth a damn and Ohio State’s offensive line had a week to rest up and prepare for this one. Is this the game we finally see the run game dominate and back up Ryan Day’s defense of the team’s overall toughness? How can Ohio State get things going up front? What would a successful day on the ground versus the Terps look like?
Garrick: I think a successful day running the football is converting 80 percent of short-yardage situations, which has obviously been a problem so far this year, and racking up anywhere from 150 to 200 yards total on the ground. TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum have been the main workhorses so far this season, and you'd love to see Miyan Williams also get back involved on the field if possible.
George: Since when is 4.6 yards per carry weak? That's a first down every three handoffs on average!
The greatest vulnerability within this offense continues to be its inability to generate first down and goal-to-go conversions in short yardage situations. Ohio State's offensive line ranks as the 22nd worst in college football right now in such 3rd and 4th down situations from two yards or less out. The game-winning play against Notre Dame offers a solid building point for this unit's confidence, but it also transpired against a defense with only ten players on the field.
Fixing this flaw will go a long way towards establishing the "toughness" fans seem to want to see from the offensive line. However, this negative trend has plagued the Buckeyes up front going back to last season, so a solution remains much needed but also easier said than done.
Andy: While there’s still a good bit of work to be done, from my perspective the offensive line has gotten better each week. I expect that trend to continue against the Terrapins. I’ll make a prediction now and say the Buckeyes average more than 5 yards per carry in this game. Do that and go at least 75 percent in 3rd-and-short situations, I think I’d call that a successful day running the ball.
In terms of what they can do to spark that sort of production, it really comes down to execution, as much as I don’t like to lean into coach speak. They’ve thrown a bunch of stuff at the wall this year in terms of run scheme, disguising with motion, gap and zone concepts, pulling guards, involving receivers. Truthfully they just need to be more consistent knocking defenders off the ball. And keep feeding TreVeyon Henderson.
It feels like the Big Ten has some quarterback talent this season though a chunk of the dudes still have some development and proving to do. That said, if you had to rank the top-4 quarterbacks in the league right now, what would that order look like? Briefly justify your list.
Andy: This list isn’t going to be popular, I’m certain, but my top choice is Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy – emphasis on it being my top choice right now. The man is completing 79 percent of his passes off a career performance in The Game last year.
Second I’ll put Kyle McCord, because with Day developing him, a five-star recruiting pedigree (like McCarthy) and his core of weapons I think he has the highest ceiling. Third is Taulia Tagovailoa, as proven as they come in the conference, and then I have Wisconsin’s Tanner Mordecai. He’s picked up steam every week with the Badgers and is starting to produce some of the numbers he put up at SMU.
Garrick: Man, I am not confident enough to rank these guys yet based on the small sample size we have. But I won't cop out.
- Baby Tua: He's an experienced veteran and leads the Big Ten in nearly every statistical category so far despite having a wide receiving corps that a casual football fan would struggle to name.
- J.J. McCarthy: Also gets the experience benefit of the doubt, and outside a shaky game against Bowling Green, he's been a very effective passer.
- Drew Allar: He's young, but Allar certainly passes the eye test. He has a touchdown to interception ratio of 9-0 and has beaten two pretty solid P5 teams in West Virginia and Iowa (he's going against the defense, OK?). His last game against Northwestern left a lot to be desired, though.
- Kyle McCord: McCord has only taken a majority of first-team practice reps from Week 2 on, but he looks like he's getting better and better with each passing week. He delivered a game-winning drive against Notre Dame and made a couple incredible plays on it, but there were also some clear throws he'll want to have back at the same time. He definitely has an opportunity to climb this list depending on how the next few weeks go.
George: Huh? The Big Ten quarterbacks beyond McCord, Tua's brother, and that guy in Ann Arbor that runs backwards out of bounds to avoid getting hit? They stink!
Drew Allar feinted a kneel down so he could throw another touchdown pass against Northwestern! Iowa just lost Cade McNamara for the season! Noah Kim may have just had his NIL money pulled off the table by the Spartan Dogs 4 Life collective! Luke Altmyer couldn't hit the broad side of a Champaign barn with the football! Ben Bryant was bad enough at Cincinnati that he scared off Luke Fickell before the end of last season!
The B1G West remains radioactive, and Buckeye fans should consider themselves lucky that they play in the half of the conference offering some level of competition.
Ohio State enters Saturday’s Big Noon matchup as a 20-point favorite over the Terps and despite a few close calls away from home, the Buckeyes have dominated Maryland in the Shoe in four previous matchups. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
George: No cover, and the matchup hits the under for the first time in series history. Ohio State's defense continues to perform above expectations and limits Maryland's offense to one end zone trip on the day. McCord cruises in command of the offense to the tune of a 31-13 victory and J.T. Tuimoloau secures MVP honors for his effort in disrupting Tagovailoa's production.
Andy: I do have the Buckeyes covering. My final score prediction is 52-17, and for my MVP I’m taking Kyle McCord, who I again think has his strongest outing to date.
Garrick: If it's 20 points exactly, I have Ohio State just barely covering via a 38-17 victory. I'll go with Kyle McCord as the game's MVP, throwing for four touchdowns and 350 yards against Maryland.
