It's almost here. The Game of the Year (so far) kicks off tomorrow at noon as No. 3 Ohio State looks to remain among the unbeatens against fellow undefeated foe, No. 7 Penn State.
All signs point to a low scoring affair with little margin for error but only time will tell how it unfolds, which players rise to the occasion, and who ultimately captures a victory in a game with huge Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications.
To get your mind right for what should be an absolute dandy in The Shoe, I welcome 11W's own Dan Hope, Josh Poloha and Matt Gutridge to this week's roundtable.
You guys buying the hype and statistical relevance of Penn State’s defense? Manny Diaz’s group ranks No.1 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense while facing a bunch of really bad offenses - the best being West Virginia’s 70th-ranked scoring and 79th-ranked total offense. What position unit(s) give you most concern?
Dan: I think the stats are inflated by the competition it’s faced, but I still think Penn State’s defense is really good. The Nittany Lions have great players at all three levels of the defense; defensive ends Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson, linebackers Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs and cornerback Kalen King (among others) are all future NFL players. Given the underwhelming play of Ohio State’s offensive tackles this season, though, I think Robinson and Isaac pose the biggest threat to the Buckeyes. They’ve already combined for 12.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks this year, and they’re better than any pass-rushing duo Ohio State has faced so far this season.
Josh: I think Penn State's defense is really, really good but it's tough to call them the best defense in the country, at least on paper, given their stats seem like a bit of a reach due to their strength of schedule so far. That said, I'm most concerned about their defensive line worries me the most because the Nittany Lions' front is really good and, as we all know, Ohio State's offensive line has been the biggest question mark so far this season.
Matt: Penn State’s defensive stats are impressive even if they have been amassed against Delaware, Iowa and UMass – teams that would have difficulty moving the ball against whatever broken down, retired NFL stars Lay’s can roll out there for its commercials.
Even against less-than-stellar opposition, when a defense has 19 different players with at least one tackle-for-loss and 15 individuals recording at least one sack, you have to recognize what Manny Diaz’s defense has done as cause for concern.
With that, I’ll go with Penn State’s defensive line and its opportunity to feast on Ohio State’s weakest unit. Keep an eye on defensive ends Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, who have combined for eight sacks and 11.5 TFLs. It could be a long day if the Nittany Lioins’ secondary can keep the Buckeyes’ elite wide receivers in check.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar hasn’t thrown a pick this season against 12 touchdowns and he’s completing over 63% of his throws but Penn State’s passing attack hasn’t exactly been explosive. Will the Buckeyes contain Allar and his receivers on Saturday? Can Ohio State get pressure on Allar to potentially force some mistakes?
Matt: Jim Knowles prides himself in deploying defensive schemes designed to confuse quarterbacks. If Sam Hartman had difficulty racking up the yards against Ohio State, the more talented but inexperienced Allar will likely struggle.
In the preseason, I wanted Knowles and the defense to show they have improved and improved they have. I expect the Buckeyes to cause Allar difficulties, and the Silver Bullets will pick off at least one of his passes – and possibly a pick-six if they jump a quick out.
Fun fact: since 2000, Ohio State has intercepted 29 passes against Penn State and returned 10 of them for touchdowns. The most against any opponent in that time span.
Dan: It would be easier to answer this question if we knew whether Denzel Burke would be playing Saturday, but I do believe Ohio State’s secondary will be capable of containing Penn State’s passing game. Allar is a very talented quarterback, but he’s not necessarily a better quarterback than Taulia Tagovailoa or Sam Hartman yet, and the Buckeyes kept both of them in check. Penn State doesn’t have any elite receivers either; the Nittany Lions might be more capable of explosive plays in the passing game than they’ve shown, but the fact that they haven’t made many big plays through the air all year doesn’t exactly suggest that they’ll suddenly start doing so against an Ohio State pass defense that currently ranks fourth nationally in yards allowed per game and attempt. It would certainly help if Ohio State’s pass rush can generate regular pressure; Penn State’s offensive line is good, but I’m not going to bet against JT Tuimoloau after the performance we saw from him in Happy Valley last year.
Josh: As someone who has watched Drew Allar play football for years, the fact that Penn State hasn't used his arm talent (Allar has a cannon) is crazy to me, to be honest. Whether it's the play-calling or the lack of playmakers at receiver, Penn State's lack of deep throws certainly isn't the quarterback's fault. The Buckeyes must contain Allar Saturday afternoon, just like they have with every other opposing quarterback so far this season. Ohio State will need to dial up some pressure on Allar in order to force him into making mistakes because he's always been known to take care of the ball.
Ohio State’s run game showed signs of life last weekend, albeit against a mediocre-to-bad Purdue defense, by way of a fourth-string running back in Dallan Hayden and a new package in which backup quarterback Devin Brown did some ground work in the red zone. Will Ohio State be able to run the ball with whatever tailbacks are available? Will we see Brown in the red zone or was that just something to put on film for Penn State to prepare for? Bonus: Assuming all the backs are healthy on any given Saturday, list your first through fourth string.
Josh: Will they? Hopefully. Do they need to run the ball well in order to beat Penn State? Yes. I liked the usage of Devin Brown in the red zone and hope it continues because it was a new wrinkle that the Buckeyes haven't used before. I also hope Ryan Day and Brian Hartline continue to use Dallan Hayden because he has continued to impress time and time again. I also think Henderson and Hayden are a perfect one-two punch at running back because each of them brings different styles of attacking the defense.
At full strength, my order of running backs would be TreVeyon Henderson, Dallan Hayden, Chip Trayanum, Miyan Williams (assuming he's not the player he was last year). The fact that Williams could very well be RB4 for Ohio State this season goes to show just how good the running back room really is.
Matt: Ohio State will be able to run the ball consistently if Dallan Hayden is in the backfield. The tailback from Tennessee flashed last season as a freshman, and it still pains me he wasn’t used as the featured back against Michigan. At this point, my four running backs: 1a and 1b are Hayden and TreVeyon Henderson; 2a and 2b are Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum.
Hayden gets the top spot for me because of his vision, cutting ability and aggressive running style. He’s not the fastest, biggest or strongest of the four, but he checks all of the boxes and always gives the running game a pulse. Be ready for Manny Diaz to have some wrinkles in Penn State’s defense to make it difficult for Ohio State’s passing and running games.
Yes, I expect to see Brown in the red zone this week.
Dan: Running the ball against Penn State is going to be much more difficult than it was against Purdue, but I think Ohio State did a much better job scheming up run plays last week than it had in previous weeks, and I think that is translatable to this week if the Buckeyes can build upon what worked. I’m not convinced the Devin Brown red zone package will be a part of the offense every week, especially in a game of this magnitude, but I think Dallan Hayden needs to continue to have a role in the offense this week even if all of the other running backs are healthy. He made the offensive line look better with his vision and north-south explosiveness last week, and I don't think the gap between him and the other running backs as a pass blocker is so large that it should prevent him from playing at all.
It seems crazy to say, because there was a part of me that thought he should be the starter entering the season, but I’d probably put Miyan Williams fourth on the depth chart right now behind TreVeyon Henderson, Hayden and Chip Trayanum. I still think there's a definite role for Trayanum and/or Williams as a power back, but I think Henderson’s explosiveness and Hayden’s ability to hit the hole are what Ohio State’s running game needs most right now.
As you evaluate Penn State’s roster, who is the one guy that presents the worst matchup for the Buckeyes and/or could be the difference maker if the Nittany Lions are to pull off the mild upset?
Dan: I’m gonna double down on the defensive end tandem of Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson because I’m not confident in Josh Simmons and Josh Fryar’s ability to consistently block them. They’re good against both the run and pass, but it’s their ability to get after the quarterback that could lead to an upset. Ohio State’s biggest advantage over Penn State is its ability to make explosive plays in the passing game, but keeping Robinson and Isaac out of the backfield and giving Kyle McCord ample time to throw will be necessary for that to happen against a defense that also features an excellent back seven.
Josh: I'll go with a two-player answer here: Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. If Penn State is able to run the ball, stay ahead of schedule and control the line of scrimmage, it would allow the Nittany Lions to take control of the game. Ohio State's front seven must be able to contain the run-first Penn State offense.
Matt: It’s not one guy, but two sets of players that I think the Buckeyes should be aware of. As mentioned above, defensive ends Robinson and Isaac could give Ohio State’s offensive line fits. Also, the duo of sophomore running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton give the Nittany Lions a legitimate one-two punch in the backfield. If they are able to find holes, it will take the heat off Allar and provide the young quarterback with the offensive balance he needs.
Ohio State is a modest 4-point favorite at home against the Nittany Lions. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Matt: Ohio State 24, Penn State 17. My MVP goes to everybody at the pregame shows with signs referring to Michigan's alleged cheating. For the game's MVP, I'll go with the player Ohio State features at running back. Hoping that this player will be a key factor in the win.
Dan: I don’t have the Buckeyes covering, but I do have them winning a tight game, 27-24. Marvin Harrison Jr. had a career-high 185 yards against Penn State last year, and I think he comes up big again this week to remind everyone that he’s the best wide receiver in college football.
Josh: Ohio State will continue its dominance over the James Franklin-led Nittany Lions. Buckeyes 31, Penn State 24. Marvin Harrison Jr. will prove yet again why he's the best receiver in college football with a two-touchdown performance.
