XICHIGAN WEEK
Ohio State blows out Indiana, 38-15. Now, it's time to do the same to That Team Up North.
Ohio State's second top-10 matchup of the season is set to kick off as the clock strikes noon in Ohio Stadium.
This time it's No. 7 Penn State the No. 3 Buckeyes must slay to stay in the driver's seat for a Big Ten title and College Football Playoff berth. In the mood to read the internet's most comprehensive preview of the matchup? If so, click here.
I get the sense the Buckeyes are ready.
SATURDAY MORNING pic.twitter.com/1gYM0QsKsy
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 21, 2023
As kickoff inches closer, we present for your review our 11W staff predictions for the big game along with some of the highlights across the sports betting landscape, plus some real and homemade prop bets.
Dan Hope: Ohio State 27, Penn State 24. "I enter this game with a very similar feeling as I did the Notre Dame game in that I see it as a coin-flip game that will likely come down to the final possession. I’d probably pick Penn State if this game was being played in Happy Valley, but given James Franklin’s poor history in big-time road games and that this is Drew Allar’s first real road test, I’ve got the Buckeyes pulling out a three-point win just as they did in South Bend."
Ramzy Nasrallah: Ohio State 31, Penn State 21. "The Buckeyes’ consistently atrocious and unaccountable special teams allow the Nittany Lions to make the final score closer than the game."
Chase Brown: Ohio State 24, Penn State 21. "Penn State's talented roster will challenge the Buckeyes in all three phases of the game. However, with the game being played at Ohio Stadium, where a crowd of 105,000 members of Buckeye Nation will lose their voices on Saturday afternoon, I believe Ohio State's talent, plus the home-field advantage, will be enough to overcome the Nittany Lions."
Chris Lauderback: Ohio State 24, Penn State 20. "#%&@ Michigan."
Andy Anders: Ohio State 24 Penn State 20. "Ohio State's defense is what wins the day in the end, as it comes up with one more red zone stop than Penn State does to capture a four-point win."
Garrick Hodge: Ohio State 20, Penn State 17. "I have no idea how these teams are going to score on each other, but Marvin Harrison Jr. will make enough explosive plays to provide the difference in yet another rock fight against a top 10 team."
Josh Poloha: Ohio State 31, Penn State 24. "The Buckeyes will continue their dominance over the James Franklin-led Nittany Lions and not only be 7-0, but have the best resume so far this season in college football."
Kyle Jones: Ohio State 27, Penn State 21. "Despite Penn State coming in with the better defense on paper, the silver bullets have more success slowing the opposition. The Buckeyes still have trouble running the ball, giving the visitors some late hope, but the home team ultimately comes out ahead."
Jack Emerson: Ohio State 27, Penn State 17. “Penn State’s vaunted defense finally faces a tough task against the Buckeye offense, while Ohio State’s defense is by far the most difficult unit Drew Allar and Co. largely has had to face to this point. I like the Buckeyes to feed off the home crowd en route to a massive win on Saturday.”
Check out this week's Eleven Warriors Roundtable for score predictions and more analysis from Dan Hope, Josh Poloha and Matt Gutridge.
Will Ohio State Cover?
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Penn State way back in March but the line dropped to 5.5 points to start this week and currently sits at 4.5 points across most betting sites as kickoff fast approaches.
Sporting a perfect 6-0 record, Ohio State is 3-3 against he spread through the Buckeyes have covered in three of the last four games. The lone miss in that streak was a narrow one as Ohio State beat Notre Dame, 17-14, in a game it entered as a 3.5-point favorite.
Penn State, also boasting an unblemished 6-0 record, is an impressive 6-0 against the spread with all of its wins coming by at least 17 points. Also of note, the Nittany Lions are 7-2 against the spread versus Ohio State under James Franklin and 12-0-1 against the spread in their last 13 games.
Ohio State is 0-5-1 against the spread in last six games as favorites versus ranked opponents.
All 13 Eleven Warriors staffers picked Ohio State to beat the Nittany Lions but just five have the Buckeyes covering the 4.5 points: Ramzy Nasrallah, Johnny Ginter, Kyle Jones, Josh Poloha and Matt Gutridge.
What about the Over?
Back in May, the total was hovering at 60.5 but has dropped significantly as both teams turned in top shelf defensive performances. The total fell to 50.5 entering game week and now sits at just 45.5 points across many major betting houses.
The over has hit just once in Ohio State's six games while it has cashed in three of Penn State's last five contests overall and seven of its last eight roadies.
The Eleven Warriors staff is pretty split on the total, as Ramzy Nasrallah, Dan Hope, Andy Anders, Kyle Jones, Josh Poloha, Matt Gutridge and Jack Emerson will hit the over while Jason Priestas, Chris Lauderback, Johnny Ginter, Chase Brown, Garrick Hodge and George Eisner all believe the total will hit the under.
Interested in more betting analysis from Eleven Warriors? Check out Easy Bucks for more detailed breakdowns on this weekend's lines and more.
Eleven Warriors House Prop Bets
Looking for more statistics to speculate on? Take a gander at our in-house prop betting lines for this matchup to get a greater sense of what oddsmakers are expecting from individual performances. Leave your predictions for us in the comments and compete for some bragging rights!
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How many passing yards will Kyle McCord have?
- Over 236.5 (-115)
- Under 236.5 (-115)
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How many passing yards will Drew Allar have?
- Over 184.5 (-125)
- Under 184.5 (-105)
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How many receiving yards will Marvin Harrison Jr. have?
- Over 83.5 (-120)
- Under 83.5 (+105)
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How many rushing yards will Nick Singleton have?
- Over 58.5 (-115)
- Under 58.5 (-115)
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How many times will the game announcers say the name Connor Stalions?
- Over 2.5 (-110)
- Under 2.5 (-125)
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The "I'm definitely no expert but dammit I'm feeling this one" value of the week:
- Carnell Tate: Anytime TD +330
Still need time to kill before kickoff? Gear up for the new season with a quick shopping spree around the Eleven Warriors Dry Goods store!
