Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Betting Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Rutgers

Will the Buckeyes cover on their way to a 10th straight win over the Scarlet Knights since the 2014 season? Or will Greg Schiano finally have revenge on his former employer?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Rutgers.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -18.5

The Buckeyes could not quite pull off a fourth cover in a row last week, which would have been the team's first since the 2021 season. Instead, Ohio State narrowly missed a 14.5 point cover in a 24-10 victory on the road at Wisconsin. The public wept, Vegas rejoiced.

The follow-up trip to Piscataway this week provides an unclear path to a bounce-back cover from an historical context. This will be the fifth visit to New Jersey for the Buckeyes since the 2015 season, and if the current line holds, it will be only the second projected margin of victory Ohio State has ever had over Rutgers below 20 points.

Recent meetings between these teams have hardly proceeded smoothly from a spread perspective for the Buckeyes. Ohio State owns just a 1-2-1 record against the spread in their last four games versus Rutgers, the most recent of which proved to be a push in last season's 49-10 win that closed with a line of 39 points. That said, the all-time ATS record between these schools as they prepare for a 10th showdown favors Ohio State at 6-2-1 overall.

But as previously suggested, the spread at present should soon set one of the lowest marks ever between these two teams. The 2019 game had a spread 7.5 points wider than what Youngstown State faced earlier this season! The Buckeyes sit at 1-3 against the spread on the road this season, own a 1-2 ATS record when faced with a spread of more than 17 points and a 4-4 overall ATS record since September. Trust a cover in this spot at your own peril.

The Total: 42.5

The Autumn of Unders rolls on into November. After not seeing a point total close in the 40s for an Ohio State game since the 2019 season, the Buckeyes have seen two straight over/unders in that range cash on the shallow side of their contests. Jim Knowles has yet to concede more than 17 points to any offense this year, and that trend reflects in Ohio State's only over of 2023 remaining with the result of the Western Kentucky game.

This makes the current forecast for Saturday's total a true anomaly across the last decade of history between these teams. Only one over/under between the Buckeyes and Scarlet Knights has ever closed within 11 points of Saturday's current line expecting a 42.5 total.

The books could not have lined last year's game against Rutgers any better. A season ago, series saw a fourth straight over hit by merely one point.

The shallow projection this time around suggests a fifth consecutive tall tally of points will prove difficult. However, the Scarlet Knights have scored into double-digits four times in a row against the Buckeyes after failing to do so in four of their first five meetings. If Rutgers finds at least 10 points and the Buckeyes cover the spread, the over in this matchup would only require one more touchdown between either of these teams.

Prop Watch: Kyle McCord Under 29.5 Passing Attempts

After advocating for checking the injury reports prior to the game, Prop Watch got burned pretty badly last week by Emeka Egbuka receiving clearance to play but ultimately getting held out. That puts finding confident spots in a difficult position this week, given the prop market offerings appear slimmer than usual this week. Lines are also rounding more solidly into place down the stretch of the season.

Miyan Williams' season-ending absence due to injury has created a bit of opportunity in the market relative to touchdown equity. In that sense, investing in Chip Trayanum this week while Ohio State seeks to fill the goal-line back role in its offense may present itself as an intriguing idea to some.

However, a glance at the Buckeye prop board reveals a new type of line not available prior to this week on Ohio State's slate: passing attempts. Does anyone want to see Honda McCord sling the ball 30 times against this Rutgers defense currently allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game at the FBS level?

In this season stricken with clock-shortened contests, McCord has broken the threshold of 30 passing attempts just three times in eight games. Two of those games were against top 10 opponents in Notre Dame and Penn State. The third proved to be Ohio State's season opener in which Ryan Day had yet to name a starter and used the game as an opportunity to evaluate his choices at quarterback.

Coming off a game in which McCord turned the ball over three times, the Scarlet Knights' passing defense hardly presents a comfortable bounce-back opportunity on paper. The Buckeyes' most comfortable path to victory goes through the ground, while resettling McCord after last week will largely amount to a focus on efficiency over volume. Should Ohio State find an early lead in a game its expected to win by at least three scores, such a game script hardly lends itself to a pass-heavy approach that would see 30 or more attempts from the Buckeye field general currently nursing an ankle injury.

Good luck, and go Buck$.