Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Betting Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Michigan State

But will the Buckeyes cruise on their way to a seventh straight cover over TTUN's in-state rival? Or will the gremlins in green and white cackle their way down the field, whirling their arms in the same deliriously giddy fashion as MSU's kicker from the 2015 season?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Michigan State.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -31.5

Buckeye fans that returned to the well last week on Ohio State covering the spread likely experienced one of the most agonizing backdoor covers of their lives on the team's way to earning a 5-3-1 record against the spread this season. Kyle McCord's second touchdown pass of the day to Marvin Harrison Jr. secured an 18.5-point cover for the Buckeyes over Rutgers. Given Ohio State trailed at the half despite entering as three-score favorites, bettors on either side of the ball lost their minds.

Will a return to Columbus conjure a less nail-biting performance for the Buckeyes? The books seem to expect as much, given the current line of 31.5 points would close as the widest Ohio State has had over Michigan State going back to at least 1997. Such a mark would also serve as the eighth double-digit spread between these schools across their last 10 meetings.

Six straight covers against the Spartans! Half of those results would have seen Ohio State clear what should be one of the largest-ever projected margins of victory between these teams. Those are nice trends concerning strictly recent chronological history, but with a few single-digit spreads and a conference title game sprinkled in-between, these results could still use some refinement.

What happens to the trend of Buckeye betting success when the results focus strictly on games that closed with spreads in the range the all-time chasm expected this weekend? 

Ohio State owns a 6-4-1 ATS record against Michigan State across the last 25 years when faced with a double-digit spread, including five straight covers since the 2017 season. A handicap of four scores comes out to a hefty amount for a favorite in any conference matchup. However, given the recent success the Buckeyes have had against the Spartans under similar circumstances, the lofty line appears justified.

The Total: 47.5

The streak of unders snapped in its quest for a sixth straight shallow point tally last weekend, as the lowest closing point total Ohio State had seen in quite some time (44) saw a push fade away with the aforementioned Harrison touchdown late in the game. It was the first time the Buckeyes had helped cash an over in one of their games since facing Western Kentucky back in September.

Will the Autumn of Unders regain its momentum in the second week of November? Recent history between Ohio State and Michigan State suggests that outcome appears more than likely — even with the projected total dropping off a full 20 points from a season ago after an over in the most recent meeting.

Of course, only one of those results across the last 10 contests features a point total within the range of the 40s that this game expects. However, only one other game between these schools since 1997 has featured both a double-digit spread and a point total in the 40s. Most of the results with similar point totals featured closely-lined matchups between OSU and MSU, such as the three times the school played between the 2008-2012 seasons.

Therefore, examining over/under results in the same games from the previous section with double-digit margins will likely offer more helpful insight.

Unders in games featuring the Buckeyes and Spartans are 7-2-1 across the last 10 meetings since the 2000 season. There was no point total data available for the infamous 1998 loss that saw Ohio State enter as a 27.5-point favorite, coincidentally the second-largest spread between these two schools in the last 25 years assuming the current line holds.

Michigan State needed to break 10 points in the previous two meetings between these teams that saw an over hit. The Spartans failed to score beyond seven points across three of their last seven meetings with the Buckeyes in which the former entered as double-digit underdogs. If MSU fails to earn at least a touchdown and a field goal, it could be a difficult task for OSU to make up the difference on the point total by themselves, especially if the Buckeyes enjoy a comfortable lead early on.

Prop Watch: TreVeyon Henderson Under 32.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Watch pounced on the under for Kyle McCord's passing attempts against Rutgers last week, then enjoyed the fourth quarter sweat-free. That held true even as Ryan Day attempted to inflate Maserati Marv's touchdown tally for Heisman purposes.

Funny enough, the McCord passing attempt market no longer appears available at major books this week. But as one door closes, another opportunity opens itself up elsewhere. For the first time this season, bettors have a line available on TreVeyon Henderson's receiving yards.

If you are a regular Eleven Dubcast listener — you should be, it's free and the official podcast of the site — then you are probably already familiar with how much advocating I have done for McCord to have "checkdown" options available to him on nearly all passing plays. This was true even before his ankle became a health concern potentially compromising his pocket mobility further.

This season, the offense did not really attempt to build a checkdown rapport between McCord and Henderson until the Notre Dame game. Ohio State's starting running back would not catch multiple passes in a game again until the road win against Wisconsin at the end of October. Henderson then followed that up with his strongest outing to date this season as a receiver against Rutgers, finishing with five catches for 80 yards.

Now on the strength of back-to-back performances with at least four receptions, the betting market for Henderson as a receiver seems to have revealed itself. But even if he has easily eclipsed the current line in each of his last two games, Henderson's historical usage as a receiver in this offense requires some context to fully appreciate.

Henderson has enjoyed prolific use as a receiver in select games throughout his career as a Buckeye. However, he has caught multiple passes in only eight of his 27 total appearances at Ohio State, three of which happened this year and none of which happened during the 2022 season.

Given his career average of roughly 12 yards per reception, Henderson would likely need at least three catches against MSU to achieve the over on his receiving line. Considering he has never caught at least three passes in three straight games, it seems unlikely he would need to do so in a game Vegas expects Ohio State to cover by north of 30 points.

Henderson has also eclipsed the 33-yard receiving threshold only once at home across the six times in his career he has accomplished such a feat. Three of Henderson's four games doing so as a freshman happened at Minnesota, Nebraska, and Michigan, while his two most recent instances took place on the road against Wisconsin and Rutgers.

Furthermore, Michigan State's defense has yet to give up more than 25 yards receiving to any opponent's running back across all of the Spartans' games this season. That mark includes a 49-0 blowout loss to Michigan in which Blake Corum caught only two passes for 17 yards, while Donovan Edwards managed three receptions for 23 yards of his own.

Henderson's receiving ability has been a bailout weapon for this offense since his first career game against the Golden Gophers in which he scored a pivotal 70-yard touchdown on a nifty screen pass. Such a weapon seems better reserved for difficult road moments or more daunting opponents ahead than what Ohio State will encounter this weekend. The alternative would be displaying such usage on tape for those opponents to anticipate and scheme against beforehand in the selfish interest of beating a team with a losing record by more ways than necessary.

Here's hoping for an early exit from the office for the Buckeye starters after a solid day's work, or at least a game script that demands near-constant running out the clock.

Good luck, and go Buck$.