A spot in the national championship game is on the line tonight.
#5 Texas
Longhorns
To get the chance to play Notre Dame for college football’s ultimate prize, Ohio State must first conquer a battle with Texas, the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff. Featuring one of the nation’s best defenses and an explosive passing attack led by Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns won’t be an easy out for the eighth-seeded Buckeyes.
That said, there’s no shortage of confidence in Columbus entering the game as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first two College Football Playoff opponents, blowing out Tennessee 42-17 and Oregon 41-21.
As we count down the final hours until Ohio State plays its 15th game of the season against Texas in the Cotton Bowl, we break down our biggest questions entering the game, pick our top players to watch and make some predictions for what we’ll see inside AT&T Stadium on Friday night.
Questions
Can Texas slow down Jeremiah Smith?
Jeremiah Smith seems almost unstoppable with how well he’s played so far in the College Football Playoff, but if any secondary in college football can keep Ohio State’s star freshman receiver in check, it might be Texas. With the best cornerback in college football this season (Jahdae Barron) along with an elite tandem of safeties (Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba), Texas has the players on the back end of its defense to at least make life difficult on Smith. The Longhorns have allowed only one opposing receiver to top 100 yards in a game this season, though that came just two games ago (Clemson’s T.J. Moore had 116 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions).
It seems unlikely that Texas (or anyone) can take Smith completely out of the game, and Ohio State has plenty of weapons it can utilize around him if Texas focuses too much of his defensive effort on trying to stop Smith. But preventing Smith from taking over the game like he did in Ohio State’s first two CFP games will be priority A for the Longhorns if they are to take the Buckeyes out of their offensive rhythm.
– Dan Hope
Can Texas prevent Ohio State from achieving a fast start?
In the first two CFP games, if you blinked, you pretty much missed Ohio State scoring on its opening drive. Before you know it, the Buckeyes built comfortable double-digit leads in both contests. Texas needs to keep the game from getting out of hand early, because it's not really a team equipped to come back from down multiple scores, at least not against this defense. One thing worth watching, Steve Sarkisian is well-known for his effective scripted offenses, so we'll see what the Longhorns come swinging with out of the gates. If their first few offensive drives are futile, it could be a long night for Texas.
– Garrick Hodge
How effective will Texas' outside-zone-heavy run game be against Ohio State's defense?
According to Pro Football Focus, Texas has called outside zone on 34% of its rushing attempts this season, the 17th-highest rate in the FBS. The concept worked well against Clemson, as the Longhorns ran it 23 times for 249 yards and two scores. However, Texas had little to no success against Arizona State, running it nine times for 15 yards. Leading the Power Four with a 90.7 run defense grade against the concept, the Buckeyes will look to continue the trend the Sun Devils started in the CFP quarterfinals.
– Chase Brown
Can Ohio State make the Texas offense one-dimensional?
Texas has a highly touted offensive line featuring a future first-round NFL draft pick at left tackle in Kelvin Banks Jr., but the Longhorns' running game has struggled previously in big games. Three times this year they've failed to average even two yards per carry, twice against Georgia and in the previous round of the CFP against Arizona State.
If Ohio State can shut down Texas' run game, it'll give its defensive linemen a chance to pin their ears back and get after Quinn Ewers in the pocket.
– Andy Anders
Players to Watch
Jeremiah Smith
I'll take the obvious one. Jeremiah Smith is the best player on the field at all times, and he's helped carry Ohio State early in both College Football Playoff games. If Smith can continue to shred secondaries like mincemeat, I can't see much of a path for Texas winning.
– Garrick Hodge
TreVeyon Henderson
Henderson collected 25 touches for 248 yards (9.92 yards per touch) and four touchdowns in Ohio State's wins over Tennessee and Oregon. If the senior running back can continue to move the chains each time he holds the football, the Buckeyes will be hard to stop on offense. Throw in another stellar performance from Jeremiah Smith and some other standouts, and the offense will be unstoppable.
– Chase Brown
Tyleik Williams
He’s been overshadowed by the excellence of JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer at defensive end thus far in the CFP, but Williams also played one of his best games of the season against Oregon, providing constant disruption up the middle and playing a massive role in Ohio State’s dominant run defense that held the Ducks to a net loss of 23 rushing yards. Against a Texas rushing offense that’s been very hit or miss – rushing for 240 or more yards in three of its last five games but 53 or fewer yards in the other two – how much havoc Williams can wreak will play a crucial role in whether Ohio State can stifle the Longhorns’ ground game.
– Dan Hope
Caleb Downs
Downs has been on an absolute tear as he's moved all over Ohio State's defense in the CFP. After a seven-tackle outing against Tennessee, he broke up not one, not two but three passes against Oregon. Look for him to continue to be the chess piece that disguises looks and frustrates offenses in the Cotton Bowl.
– Andy Anders
Predictions
Ohio State intercepts Quinn Ewers twice
While Ewers poses a threat to Ohio State’s defense with his ability to throw the ball downfield, he’s also been plagued by his share of erratic throws, as evidenced by him throwing at least one interception in each of Texas’ last four games. Against a secondary that’s done an excellent job of disguising coverages in the second half of the season and a pass rush that’s been relentless in the CFP, I expect the Buckeyes to force Ewers to throw at least two interceptions to the team he spent four months with in 2021.
– Dan Hope
Caleb Downs intercepts Quinn Ewers
I'll take Dan's prediction and make it a touch more specific. I think Downs will collect one of the two interceptions Dan predicted. Why? Because in the College Football Playoff, Jim Knowles has placed the All-American safety in the middle of the field, where he can cover seam routes and help against the run. Lurking 10 to 12 yards from the line of scrimmage on almost every snap, I think Downs snatches one of Ewers' passes from the air and puts Ohio State's offense in prime position to put points on the board.
– Chase Brown
Ohio State thwarts Texas' running game
Texas has done well rushing the ball this season overall, but against Arizona State and Georgia twice, the Longhorns have struggled to generate much on the ground. Against this Ohio State defensive front, I'd be surprised if the Longhorns can generate more than 80 rushing yards Friday.
– Garrick Hodge
Four more sacks for the Ohio State pass rush
After a four-sack outing against Tennessee, the Buckeyes racked up eight quarterback takedowns against Oregon. Their coverage and rush are working in the best harmony they've worked all season these playoffs, so look out for another staple performance from the unit on Friday.
– Andy Anders
