Less than two weeks before the 2024 college football season kicks off with Week 0, we finally have the highly anticipated preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll.
The top teams are about what you would expect, with Georgia sitting at No. 1, Ohio State coming in at No. 2, Oregon at No. 3, Texas slotting in at No. 4 and Alabama being ranked No. 5. But this preseason feels much different than any other college football preseason in the past.
| Rank | Team | Record | Points | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GEORGIA | 0–0 | 1532 (46) | ▲ 3 |
| 2 | OHIO STATE | 0–0 | 1490 (15) | ▲ 8 |
| 3 | OREGON | 0–0 | 1403 (1) | ▲ 3 |
| 4 | TEXAS | 0–0 | 1386 (0) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | ALABAMA | 0–0 | 1260 (0) | – |
| 6 | OLE MISS | 0–0 | 1189 (0) | ▲ 3 |
| 7 | NOTRE DAME | 0–0 | 1122 (0) | ▲ 7 |
| 8 | PENN STATE | 0–0 | 1060 (0) | ▲ 5 |
| 9 | MICHIGAN | 0–0 | 995 (0) | ▼ 8 |
| 10 | FLORIDA STATE | 0–0 | 971 (0) | ▼ 4 |
| 11 | MISSOURI | 0–0 | 927 (0) | ▼ 3 |
| 12 | UTAH | 0–0 | 887 (0) | – |
| 13 | LSU | 0–0 | 804 (0) | ▼ 1 |
| 14 | CLEMSON | 0–0 | 689 (0) | ▲ 6 |
| 15 | TENNESSEE | 0–0 | 629 (0) | ▲ 2 |
| 16 | OKLAHOMA | 0–0 | 566 (0) | ▼ 1 |
| 17 | OKLAHOMA STATE | 0–0 | 538 (0) | ▼ 1 |
| 18 | KANSAS STATE | 0–0 | 526 (0) | – |
| 19 | MIAMI (FL) | 0–0 | 492 (0) | – |
| 20 | TEXAS A&M | 0–0 | 292 (0) | – |
| 21 | ARIZONA | 0–0 | 237 (0) | ▼ 10 |
| 22 | KANSAS | 0–0 | 231 (0) | ▲ 1 |
| 23 | USC | 0–0 | 172 (0) | – |
| 24 | NORTH CAROLINA STATE | 0–0 | 171 (0) | ▼ 3 |
| 25 | IOWA | 0–0 | 140 (0) | ▼ 1 |
That’s mainly due to the College Football Playoff expanding from four to 12 teams for the first time, giving more teams than ever a chance at bringing home a national championship. Now that we have the first rankings of the year from the associated press, I wanted to put together what an actual 12-team playoff would look like using these rankings.
Yes, the AP Top 25 poll changes week to week, but it’s a good starting point to see what the 12-team playoff will look like in practice.
As a reminder, the five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically earn bids to the playoff, while the CFP committee will fill out the rest of the bracket with seven at-large bids. The top four conference champions earn first-round byes, so don’t be confused when the CFP seeding isn’t a straight representation of the AP Top 25 poll.
For the purpose of this article, we’re just assuming the highest-ranked team from each league wins their respective conference. For example, OSU would be the Big Ten champion in this exercise, while Oregon is the first team to receive an at-large selection. Since the Pac-12 is reduced to rubble and two teams, the fifth conference champion is going to be a Group of Five team in this year’s playoff. There wasn’t a Group of Five team in the preseason Top 25, so that honor will go to Boise State, who received the most votes of any G5 team with 47 (the Broncos would have been the No. 28 ranked team in the poll if it extended that far).
Missouri is ranked No. 11 but is the first team out in this projected playoff seeding. No. 13 LSU is the next team out in this model.
With that, let’s take a look at the bracket.
First-round byes: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Florida State, No. 4 Utah
Breakdown: Georgia and Ohio State are seeded the same as their respective rankings, but Florida State (No. 10 in the AP poll) and Utah (No. 12) receive big boosts thanks to presumably winning the ACC and the Big 12, respectively.
First-round matchups on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State
Winner gets: No. 4 Utah
Breakdown: Weirdly enough, this would be a regular-season rematch. Oregon is the highest-ranked non-conference champion in this scenario, so the Ducks wind up with the No. 5 seed. Boise State is probably the most talented Group of Five team on paper this preseason, but plays Oregon in Eugene in Week 2. If Boise State can win every other game on its schedule, though, the committee will have to decide whether it would rather have the Group of Five team with a harder schedule (Boise State) or a potential undefeated team (probably Liberty) in the playoff.
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Michigan
Winner gets: No. 3 Florida State
Breakdown: This would be our second case of having a regular season rematch in the postseason, which is probably something the committee is going to be hellbent on avoiding if they can help it. Michigan hosts Texas in the second week of the regular season in Ann Arbor, but in this hypothetical rematch, the game would be in Austin.
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Penn State
Winner gets: No. 2 Ohio State
Breakdown: Finally, an original game. Unfortunately, there is no snowy gridiron haven in this scenario as Penn State would travel to Tuscaloosa for Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama playoff debut. But it’s a massive game and the Nittany Lions have big game James Franklin, what could possibly go wrong?
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Winner gets: No. 1 Georgia
Breakdown: Even if the Irish went 12-0, the highest they could be seeded is No. 5 since they don’t play in a conference. With this final matchup, we have four SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, one independent team, one Big 12 team, one ACC team and one Group of Five team in the playoff. Maybe it’s the skeptic in me, but that sounds pretty on par for the course for the CFP committee. Better stack wins if you want any hope of an at-large, Big 12 and ACC teams.
