Ohio State vs. Michigan State Preview: Big Ten Litmus Test On Tap for Buckeyes

Michigan State

Spartans

3 - 1 (1-0)

roster  |  schedule

Sept. 28, 2024 - 7:30 pm et

Spartan STADIUM

East Lansing, MI

PEAOSU -23.5

The Buckeyes hit the road for their first Big Ten game against a 3-1 Michigan State squad that should put up more of a fight than the buttery biscuits Ohio State played in its non-conference schedule.

Ranking top 30 nationally in each of the four main defensive categories – scoring, total defense, passing and rush defense – the Spartans will take a stab at slowing down an Ohio State attack that's been rolling to the tune of 8.6 yards per play.

Michigan State's offense is lacking on the flip side, ranked 93rd in scoring, 71st in total offense, 75th in rushing and 54th in passing. Still, MSU's dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles and hard-nosed running back tandem of Kay'ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter should provide a test for the Buckeyes' defense as well.

The Spartans are off to a 3-1 start in their first season under Jonathan Smith, though they're coming off a 23-19 loss to Boston College in Week 4.

The Headlines

Nothing is Good

Ohio State's run game is humming, its defense posted a shutout two weeks ago, it has weapons galore at wide receiver and a sage quarterback to distribute the football. But there's no satisfaction from the team or its coaches.

"I don't feel good about anything," Ryan Day said on Tuesday. "That's just my mindset. That has to be everybody's mindset. You start to feel good about something and complacency can sneak up on you fast. So, no, nobody feels good about anything."

That mentality serves a two-fold purpose for Ohio State. First, for lack of a better phrase, the Buckeyes ain't played nobody. Three Group of Five teams that all finished 2023 with losing records aren't providing intel as to whether OSU can win a national championship in 2024. MSU isn't seen as a College Football Playoff contender but it is, at least, a Power Four team with some threats on both sides of the ball.

Second, as has been reiterated before, OSU must keep improving with each week to become a national championship contender. Even a team as talented and veteran as the Buckeyes has things to clean up, areas to grow in. This road trip to East Lansing is another step in a larger progression.

Pin the Quarterback In

Mobile quarterbacks put any defense in conflict due to the way they change the numbers on both run and pass plays, but it's a particular concern for Ohio State after its 49-14 win over Marshall.

Thundering Herd quarterback Stone Earle may have picked up just 23 rushing yards against the Buckeyes, but he moved the chains for multiple third-down conversions. Moreover, his ability to extend passing plays and work outside the pocket aided him in completing 16 of his 21 throws (76.2%) for 132 yards and a touchdown before he exited in the third quarter with an injury.

Chiles presents a more potent threat on the ground, gathering 95 rushing yards (including sacks) and three touchdowns with his legs in Michigan State’s first four games. It's probably the top area where he can harm Ohio State. While he has a strong arm, Chiles has been an inefficient passer to start 2024, completing just 54.3% of his throws with a Big Ten-worst seven interceptions.

If the Buckeyes keep Chiles contained and force him to beat them from the pocket, it should give Ohio State's vaunted secondary a shot at its first interception – or multiple –since Week 1 against Akron.

Guardian of Four

There are far more important happenings in the life of Michigan State defensive back Armorion Smith than football right now.

Smith's mother, Gala Gilliam, died from breast cancer a month ago. The oldest of six children with no father in the picture, Smith became the legal guardian for four of his other five siblings after his mother's passing, helping take care of them all when he's not trying to live life as a college student and football player.

His 19-year-old sister Aleion helps watch their 16-year-old brother Armond, 15-year-old brother Avaughn, 11-year-old sister Arial and 2-year-old sister Amaira when he's not around during the day. After their mother's passing, family friend Ronnesha Freeman set up a GoFundMe to help with the Smiths' expenses. It was up to $205,000 as of Thursday.

"I don't know all the details, so it'd be hard for me to comment on it, but from what I've heard, I have a lot of respect for that situation," Day said. "That's one of the things that kind of gets lost a little bit (in college sports). These are young men, and not everybody has the same family situation or dynamic. That's why we make sure we focus on, you know, one of our goals is to raise great young men and to be supportive of those things. Again, I don't know all the details. But I have a lot of respect (for Smith) and have thought about what that means for him and his family."

Watch Out for These Guys

Michigan State Linebacker Jordan Turner

Jordan Turner is a menace all over the field for Michigan State. Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK

Turner holds an argument for Michigan State's best transfer portal acquisition after the Spartans picked up 24 players from the portal this past offseason. The former Wisconsin linebacker leads all Spartan defenders in tackles (22), tackles for loss (six) and sacks (three). 

Michigan State Defensive End Khris Bogle

Thanks to disruptive play from their front six, the Spartans rank No. 2 across college football in sacks (16) and No. 8 in tackles for loss (32). A major cog in that machine is Bogle, who is tied alongside Turner with three sacks and second behind the MSU linebacker for team TFLs with five.

Ohio State Linebacker Cody Simon

The Buckeyes' linebacker play caught some criticism after the Marshall game as the Thundering Herd attacked the middle of the field, especially through the air. Simon is the leader not just of that linebacking corps but the OSU defense as a whole, the top vote-getter for team captain. In two games since he returned from injury, Simon has seven tackles and one sack.

Ohio State didn't name a Defensive Player of the Game after its victory over the Herd. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said on Tuesday that no Buckeye ball-stopper stood out enough to win the award and that "you gotta speak the truth." Simon backed that assertion on Wednesday, again playing into this week's theme of "nobody feels good about anything."

“We have standards. We want to hold ourselves to the highest standard," Simon said. "I’ll stand behind anything Coach Knowles says. We didn’t feel like we had someone that separated themselves. … We know our standard is higher and that we can play better at all times.”

Game Week Talk

“Going into somebody else’s home and taking their food is probably the best feeling you can have as a football player.”– Josh Simmons

Few sounds are better as a football player than a silent road crowd – at least that's how Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons feels. Saturday brings the Buckeyes' first road game of the 2024 season, an environment that will certainly bring plenty of noise to quiet with a 7:30 p.m. kick in Spartan Stadium.

Ohio State has won nine consecutive road games against Michigan State dating back to 1999, though it has lost two games at home (2011 and 2015) and one on a neutral field (the 2013 Big Ten Championship) to the Spartans in that timeframe.

“Everything's gotta ramp up. ... Jonathan's done a really good job already of establishing an identity there. They Have a really good, young quarterback who can do a lot of different things.”– Ryan Day

Day recognizes the step up in competition Ohio State faces this week at every turn. He's noted Smith's efforts to get the program back on track and he's not taking Chiles' athleticism lightly. Now it's up to his team to take the Spartans seriously as well.

“Good opponent coming in, looking forward to a Saturday night against Ohio State in our place. I’ve got a bunch of respect for that program, those coaches, those players.”– Jonathan Smith

Smith didn't go full Charles Huff and compare the Buckeyes to 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama, but in the opening statement to his Monday press conference, Smith made sure to establish the challenge that Michigan State has coming to its house on Saturday.

Get Smart

• Ohio State has won its last eight straight games against Michigan State, including seven straight wins by at least 20 points.
• Ohio State has won its last nine straight road games at Michigan State. Its last loss in East Lansing came in 1999.
• Ohio State has won its last 12 consecutive Big Ten openers dating back to 2012.
• The Buckeyes have played Michigan State every year since 2011 – the second-longest streak behind only Penn State (every year since 1993) and Indiana (every year since 2009) but that streak will end next season with the move away from divisions in the Big Ten. Ohio State is next scheduled to play Michigan State in Columbus in 2027.
• Michigan State’s roster features nine players from Ohio, including starting wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. (Cleveland), nickelback Angelo Grose (Mansfield) and leading rusher Kay’ron Lynch-Adams (Warren).
• Ohio State’s only 2024 roster includes only two players from Michigan: freshman offensive lineman Gabe VanSickle and walk-on punter Hadi Jawad.
• Former Ohio State cornerback Lejond Cavazos, who played for the Buckeyes in 2020-21 and at North Carolina in 2022-23, is now a backup safety for the Spartans.
• Former Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, who was Ohio State’s defensive coordinator from 2001-03, will be honored during Saturday’s game in recognition of his induction into the College Football Hall of Fame.
• Saturday’s game will be broadcast only on the streaming platform Peacock. It will be the second Peacock-exclusive game for Ohio State, whose 2023 game at Purdue was also broadcast only on Peacock.

How It Plays Out

Line: OSU -23.5, O/U 48

While Michigan State has played sound, balanced defense thus far, everything in nature has a melting point. The talent and scheme of Ohio State's offense underneath Chip Kelly will be too much for the Spartans to keep pinned down.

The Buckeyes' defense should come in motivated, eager to remind observers that they are one of college football's best on that side of the ball, after allowing two touchdowns against Marshall a week ago. Chiles should be good for a few big plays but none of the Eleven Warriors staff sees Ohio State winning by less than three touchdowns, and all but one staffer has the Buckeyes covering the 23.5-point spread.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
	41		10