The second half of Ohio State’s regular-season schedule includes four games against teams who currently sit in the top half of the Big Ten standings. That’s both a good and a bad thing for the Buckeyes now that they’ve suffered a loss in conference play.
On one hand, it increases the likelihood that the Buckeyes could suffer a second loss, which would likely eliminate them from the Big Ten Championship Game. Ohio State should beat Purdue and Northwestern comfortably barring a massive letdown, but Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana and Michigan are all capable of at least giving the Buckeyes a scare.
That said, playing all four of those teams significantly increases the likelihood that the Buckeyes will earn a Big Ten Championship Game berth if they are one of multiple teams who finish the regular season with 8-1 conference records.
Indiana and Penn State are currently ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings with undefeated conference records, but Ohio State could ensure both of them lose a game and earn the head-to-head tiebreaker over each of them by beating them when they play at Penn State on Nov. 2 and host Indiana on Nov. 23. The Buckeyes are currently tied in the conference standings with Michigan and Nebraska, with all three teams having 2-1 records, but Ohio State has the chance to ensure each of them both lose at least one more game as it hosts Nebraska in its next game on Oct. 26 and Michigan in its final game of the regular season on Nov. 30.
Ohio State already holds a tiebreaker over Iowa, who is also currently 2-1, from its 35-7 win over the Hawkeyes on Oct. 5.
The one scenario that Ohio State can’t afford to have happen is for Wisconsin to win out. The Badgers’ only loss so far in Big Ten play came against USC, who the Buckeyes didn’t play, so Wisconsin would get the tiebreaker over Ohio State if it wins its six remaining games, which include a game against Oregon on Nov. 16. Since Ohio State and Wisconsin won’t play each other during the regular season, the teams would be compared based on their records against common opponents, where Wisconsin would have the edge if both teams won out since Ohio State lost to the Ducks.
Fortunately for the Buckeyes, it would come as a major upset if the Badgers won out. Given that Wisconsin still has to play Oregon, Penn State, Iowa and Nebraska, and that it’s lost decisively to the two best teams it’s played (Alabama and USC), it seems far more likely that the Badgers will suffer at least two more regular-season losses than win six more games in a row.
| Team | Record | Play OSU ? |
|---|---|---|
| OREGON | 3-0 | Beat OSU |
| PENN STATE | 3-0 | Nov. 2 at home |
| INDIANA | 3-0 | Nov. 23 at OSU |
| OHIO STATE | 2-1 | Can’t play themselves |
| ILLINOIS | 2-1 | No |
| IOWA | 2-1 | Lost to OSU |
| MICHIGAN | 2-1 | Nov. 30 at OSU |
| NEBRASKA | 2-1 | Oct. 26 at OSU |
| WISCONSIN | 2-1 | No |
The most complicated potential tiebreaker between Ohio State and another one-loss team would be if Illinois wins out. While the Fighting Illini would get a win over Oregon in that scenario, they already have a loss to Penn State, who Ohio State would have defeated if it won out. If Penn State and Oregon also finished with one loss in that scenario, all four teams would have a 1-1 record in games between teams involved in the tiebreaker, in which case the squads would be compared based on the cumulative conference winning percentage of all of their Big Ten opponents.
Ohio State could benefit from that scenario because it’s slated to play six of the other eight teams currently in the top half of the Big Ten standings before the end of the season. While a lot can change with every team in the conference still having five or six more conference games to play, Ohio State’s Big Ten opponents currently have a combined record of 17-10 in Big Ten games, giving the Buckeyes the edge in that tiebreaker over Illinois (15-13), Oregon (11-18) and Penn State (11-20).
As with Wisconsin, though, it would come as a big surprise if Illinois won out, particularly in terms of earning a road win over Oregon. That may be a scenario Buckeye fans have to pay attention to if Illinois wins its next two games against Michigan and Oregon, as the Fighting Illini have a manageable November slate (Minnesota, Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern), but they’re a slight underdog against the Wolverines and will be a bigger underdog next week.
All of that is to say that Ohio State very likely still controls its own destiny in the Big Ten championship race. While it no longer has a mulligan because of its loss to Oregon – who is in the driver’s seat for one spot in the Big Ten Championship Game with its undefeated record and head-to-head win over Ohio State – the Buckeyes don’t need much help as long as they win the rest of their games.
Doing that will be easier said than done, given that three of its six remaining opponents are ranked in the AP Top 25 (No. 3 Penn State, No. 16 Indiana, No. 24 Michigan) while Nebraska currently sits just two spots outside the rankings. But the Buckeyes will still be favored in all of those games; FanDuel currently has Ohio State as a 19.5-point favorite over Nebraska, a 3.5-point favorite over Penn State and an 18.5-point favorite over Michigan, with no line available yet for Indiana.
If the Buckeyes can win all of those games as they’re projected to, they’ll very likely be headed to Indianapolis with a chance to win the Big Ten title. In the new 12-team playoff format, that would also allow Ohio State to clinch a first-round bye – likely a top-two seed even with one loss – in the College Football Playoff.
